ROTW - Preakness

[johndrj]

GREELEYS GALAXY

[albany]

My approach to the Preakness is predicated upon two propositions:

Proposition 1 - A line should be drawn through the Derby since its results were predicated upon an atypical pace scenario, injuries to top contenders and rough trips for several entrants.

Proposition 2 - The general disadvantage for outside posts in the Preakness will be made worse in light of the running styles of many of the entrants. More precisely, the presence of so many speed horses and pace pressers will likely create a tightly packed herd as they enter the first turn. This will force outside speed horses to use energy to clear; others  will have no alternative but to assume an extremely wide stalking position; and still others will be forced to pull further back than either their running styles or normal strategy would otherwise dictate.

The acceptance of the two above-stated propositions would lead to the exclusion of both Afleet Alex and Giacomo. Concomitantly, this approach would value inside horses who had good pre-Derby form. Accordingly, I will be boxing the following entrants:

  High Fly
  Noble Causeway
  Greeley\'s Galaxy


P.S. Given my Derby analysis that was posted on this board, I will be including Wilko in my expanded tickets despite his outside post. Such a divergence from my current logic must be made to avoid the undue pain that would be caused should he win without me.



Post Edited (05-19-05 19:02)

[davidrex]

     h.fly to win
     greely---alex[til he collapses]---h.limit[better be a price]---scrappy---
         PARTYpokerON!

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

albany wrote:

> Proposition 1 - A line should be drawn through the Derby since
> its results were predicated upon an atypical pace scenario,
> injuries to top contenders and rough trips for several
> entrants.

Hard to out factor Closing Argument on the above though
 
> Proposition 2 - The general disadvantage for outside posts in
> the Preakness will be made worse in light of the running styles
> of many of the entrants. More precisely, the presence of so
> many speed horses and pace pressers will likely create a
> tightly packed herd as they enter the first turn. This will
> force outside speed horses to use energy to clear; others  will
> have no alternative but to assume an extremely wide stalking
> position; and still others will be forced to pull further back
> than either their running styles or normal strategy would
> otherwise dictate.

Ok, sounds reasonable

> The acceptance of the two above-stated propositions would lead
> to the exclusion of both Afleet Alex and Giacomo.

This is where it departs from reasonable. Assuming your tossing Giacomo on proposition one, why should two Close/Stalk types be disadvantaged by Speed/Pressing types?

> Concomitantly, this approach would value inside horses who had
> good pre-Derby form. Accordingly, I will be boxing the
> following entrants:
>
>   High Fly
>   Noble Causeway
>   Greeley\'s Galaxy

Even though the \"clearing speed\" is further outside?

 
> P.S. Given my Derby analysis that was posted on this board, I
> will be including Wilko in my expanded tickets despite his
> outside post. Such a divergence from my current logic must be
> made to avoid the undue pain that would be caused should he win
> without me.

Wilko hasn\'t developed a quarter point. He didn\'t bleed last and he showed nothing at any point.

spa wrote:

> As I line up the chairs on the deck of the Titanic, only one
> horse comes to mind...Afleet Alex will win the race. If you
> hate your money bet against him. The derby trip was much worse
> than reported.

Alex bounced, but he also had a subtlely bad trip. I\'m worried about him from a form perspective only.

mikemd wrote:

> i\'m taking a big stand against afleet alex.  i do have him as
> my most likely winner, but nowhere near 5/2.  he\'s 1/5 over a
> mile.  terrible post.  if he wins at 5/2-3/1, then i\'ll just
> give congrats to spa for touting him since the derby.

For races over a mile hes also (5) 1-2-1 with a lung infection when he missed the board and suddenly stopped at the aerobic mark of the Rebel. I\'ve tried to warn folks about that distance thing. You can\'t say I haven\'t tried. He could lose and miss the money, but its gonna be on form if he does.

classhandicapper wrote:

> If GW wants the lead I\'d let him have it, sit just off him, let
> him collapse on his own and then take over. If GW doesn\'t break
> well or doesn\'t get aggressive I\'d go.

Probably the instructions from Frankel

> I felt much differently about it when Spanish Chestnut was in
> the race specifically to set a fast pace and Bellamy Road was
> another high quality speed in the mix. In a race like that,
> there was so much darn speed and an even bigger field trying to
> get and maintain position. I couldn\'t see any way the pace
> wasn\'t hot.

Bellamania wasn\'t even that close to the pace. The reason was he couldn\'t catch it.

> Probably a good way to look at the Preakness pace is to assume
> it will either be mildly fast or neutral and focus on horses
> that can deal with either of those. I can\'t see them crawling
> and I can\'t see another suicide mission.

Agreed

classhandicapper wrote:

> I think so because a few of the speeds are not one dimensional.
> They can sit just off it. The other reason is that I\'ve seen
> this pattern of pace reversal before. Everyone that has a horse
> than can sit just off will be under instructions to not be
> suicidal.

High Limit with blinkers inside of Going Wild is sent aggressively for the lead. If he can get the jump and free wheel to the first turn and only hear Going Wild he has a chance to be around for a long, long time. Going Wild WANTS the lead. Lukas has to figure \"put him on the lead\". Theres you\'re pace scenario. Scrappy, High Fly and Galloping Grocer will rate off that wing ding. A bad break for one of the two, the other inherits the wind. Bailey will NOT use High Fly early unless the one hole looks golden by race time.

beyerguy wrote:

> Most places Wilko wouldn\'t even be allowed to race, I think
> I\'ll pass.  Why is he allowed to race in only two weeks after
> bleeding through Lasix, anyway?

The report was \"traces of blood\" and a fair amount of track dirt swallowed. The \"bleeding\" was very mininal and the trainer did state he didn\'t want to mislead anyone. Wilko is the proverbial grinder and the problem is he\'s still a small horse and others have become explosive and to this point he has not.

jbelfior wrote:

>
> SUN KING has achieved his better numbers at 1 1/16th or less.
> So far the longer he goes, the lower his number becomes. Yes he
> did run over a dead rail, but I doubt very much that he would
> have sustained his run even if he was on the better part of the
> track. This horse is and always was overrated and has never
> given any hints that he is capable of running Grade 1 numbers
> over a classic distance.

He hasn\'t shown a solid number at two turns. It could be circumstances but you\'re into the fifth two turn race now. Lots of horses were looking good on Hallandale\'s one turn miles. Prado off pretty much seals the deal, regardless of whether Zito wouldn\'t let him have Noble Causeway.

> HIGH LIMIT-- Will obviously be a pace factor. Now it becomes a
> question of how much do you excuse his dead last performance
> due to the rail and his cuts.

Don\'t forget Mr. Maryland.
 
> This is probably HIGH FLY\'s race to lose. Inside speed, can
> track and pounce, and may be set to improve again. Will
> probably be overbet, however. Fair odds are 6-1, I\'m thinking
> he may be 7/2 or 4-1.

Should be well poised behind High Limit and Going wild.

>
> The Derby was such a grueling race that I will toss AFLEET ALEX
> (who should be given a rest) and CLOSING ARGUMENT who ran the
> race of his life off of very little seasoning.

Not a wise move.

> I\'ll take a stab that WILKO is set for a career best (I am
> concerned over the bleeding through the lasix) and I\'ll get
> nearly 15-1 to find out.

That won\'t be enough

[mikemd]

thanks for adding to the discussion

[gvido]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Many of you will think I\'m coo-coo for Cocoa Puffs with this one. I think he might be a gate crasher. Last three figs

Malibu Moon.....5.50.........3.50........6.25
High Fly........3.50.........1.00........6.25
Noble C.........5.50.........1.75.......7.50
Greeleys.......4.75.........-2.00.......3.75
Scrappy T......2.75..........5.00.......2.00
Hals Im........9.50..........6.00.......4.00
Closing........3.25..........3.50.......1.25
Galloping G....4.50..........8.50.......3.00
Wilko..........4.00..........2.75.......5.00
Sun King.......5.50..........2.75.......10.00
High Limit.....1.00..........1.00.......24.75
Afleet Al.......11.50.......-2.00.......2.50
Giacomo........4.50..........5.00.......0.50
Going W........15.75.........10.50......15.50

H-I is suddenly improving by leaps and bounds. Change in bits, perhaps he had a myectomy a few weeks back? Who knows for certain, but something major changed. Worked a 5f bullet at Crc.

DP = 8-2-10-6-0 (26) DI = 1.36 CD = 0.46 This one has plenty of stamina influences in his pedigree, tho his races don\'t seem to indicate as much.

Hal\'s Image is a 3/4 brother to millionaire Hal\'s Hope

His sheet is very reminiscent of Sarava [70-1] Belmont winner, who was an improving horse a few pts slower than the better ones. This isn\'t a spectacular 3yo class, with some ugly lines coming into the race and coventional wisdom says no, he\'s too slow[likely true? ha ha ha], but I\'ll give him a whirl in here, an improving horse, with the right trip, at a huge price.

Good luck!

[albany]

Chuckles:

Closing Argument has been excluded from my top three because Proposition 1 requires a line to be drawn through his Derby performance and his pre-Derby form was sub-par. He has also drawn outside of my top picks. Closing Argument will, however, be included in my expanded tickets.

As to your second point, I believe that outside horses who are \"close/stalk\" types will be seriously disadvantaged since I envision the field to be deeply stacked (i.e., not strung out) going into the first turn. This will force the close/stalk outside horses to go wide or pull back and thereby lose position.

I am relatively unconcerned with outside speed even if they are able to clear. In my view, it will take too much energy to both clear the field from an outside post and be around at the finish.

As we both know from experience, I am including Wilko on my expanded tickets as a defensive play in light of my previous views. There is some dispute as to whether he bled in the Derby, but I think it is clear that he was somewhat impeded in mid-stretch. That was a bad point in the race to run into trouble since the closing fractions were slow. The argument that Wilko had a troubled trip or bled in the Derby is inferentially supported by the fact that he had beaten the winner and fourth place finisher in the SA Derby. In any event, I still think Wilko has a decent shot, but I acknowledge that he\'ll have to get very lucky from his post position.

Thanks for your input.

[RICH]

Afleet Alex is a terrible bet at 5/2 out of the 12 post. Look at his line, no rebound here, bad spacing, too many races, mismanaged horse going the wrong way. Should be rested/laid up after this.

[MO]

I think the race stinks and won\'t be playing. Besides, bugling season starts tomorrow and I have a double shift.

[JJP]

If I was riding High Limit, I\'d ride the race as if Going Wild wasn\'t even in the race.  I\'d slow things down behind me knowing full well that GW will hit a brick wall going into the far turn.  I think JDB will rate High Fly today.  The pace from the Derby is ALWAYS freshly in the minds of the riders for the \'Ness.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

RICH wrote:

> Afleet Alex is a terrible bet at 5/2 out of the 12 post.

Agreed that 5-2 is very light odds off the form considerations.

The post may in fact help him. Don\'t expect the same \"inside\" effort. It looks like he wants to be outside.

>  Look
at his line, no rebound here, bad spacing, too many races,

Four races this year: Sprint, sick Non Effort, Lifetime Top, Game Derby. Some could view that as a classic X,O pattern working.
 
> mismanaged horse going the wrong way. Should be rested/laid up
> after this.

Nothing mismanaged about this horse at all. Good luck with Scrappy. You\'re right about that one, hes not a bad horse.



Post Edited (05-20-05 11:29)

[flushedstraight]

Greeley\'s Galaxy did not get any mention in Privman\'s cover story in the drf. He was over 20-1 in the derby and didn\'t crack the top 10. He has low profile connections and loses a well known jock to an excellent under the radar jock that has won 2 BC races in the past 2 years. He should sit a nice trip regardless of pace assuming the op at CD was a freak.

Two Ill Derby winners in the past 3 years have gone on to win G1s at classic distances and the TGs say this one is faster.

He worked three furlongs in 34.80 today. Wont that not show up in the form?

Is he 7-1 or 15-1? I guess we\'ll find out in the double pool today. Regardless, I don\'t know who else looks like a more likely winner.

Good luck to all.

[jbelfior]

GALLOPING GROCER may get pushed into the lead. Why would they rate him when that has not worked in the past?


This will not be a :45...1:09 deal, but I would be very suprised to see :47...1:11;

we\'ll go with :46...1:10 2/5. So who can stalk, pounce and finish???



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[big18741]

None of these horses can finish when the pace is solid.Its the worst bunch of 3yo\'s(as of May 20th)I\'ve ever seen going a distance of ground.A bunch of grinders with zero punch.Scrappy T is reasonably fresh and peaking physically.In an ordinary year he wouldn\'t hit the board,but in this sorry field he has a chance to win it.

[spa]

Biggee, when Scrappy hits the 1/8th pole,please start dialing 911.