ROTW - Preakness

[Saddlecloth]

I wanted to see what some Tgraph players think of this horse.  Obviously a contender but I view him with some skepticism.  Was there a horse in the race who had to work harder to earn his \"1\" on the sheet?  Now he must move forward because I bet this race goes faster then the derby, and looking at the tgraph pattern he is only 1/5 to do so.  Combine that with he was 70/1 last time and will be around 5/1 this time is it a good bet at all.

Call me crazy, but value wise I just cant see this horse moving forward two weeks after that monster effort.

[STB]

gvido,

Pass the milk and pass those Cocoa Puffs over here. Why not? We just witnessed a Derby where a 50-1 shot ran down a 71-1. Why does this race have to make any more sense? Maybe we\'re in for some sort of world turned upside down year with the three year olds.
Yes, he\'s one of the slower ones coming in. Yes, the four could be the end of the line. But another two point move, a fresh batch of off races from several of the logical contenders, and he\'s got a shot for a piece of it. And I don\'t like a lot else in here, so why not throw him on some tickets? A lot of ifs and buts, but maybe Hal\'s Image turns the ifs and buts to candy and nuts and I\'ll have a Merry Preakness.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Albany,

I agree with your analysis. It was exactly what I was thinking, although I may use Giacomo  or Closing Argument instead of Wilko on the stretchout ticket (super)

NC Tony

[Bally Ache]

Anything I say must be filtered thru the fact that I dismissed Eddington yesterday.

Today I feel even more strongly that High Fly is a toss.  So, if he wins I\'ll in effect have a reverse Pim Spec.-Preakness double.

I\'m trying to talk myself into Scrappy T.  In doing that I went back to last year and noticed his races at Del.  Compare them to High Limit\'s races at Del.  Given that he (HL) no doubt didn\'t beat much, those two races are still outstanding for a 2 yr. old starting out.  Maybe they should have left this horse with Tony Dutrow.

A lot of people, including me, think that Afleet Alex should stay in the barn.

Haven\'t seen anyone liking Giacomo.

[hossgnat]

I like the much maligned Giacomo enough to use him.

I\'ll box these three in the exacta/tri, with heaviest action on this order of finish:

Closing Argument
Giacomo
Greeley\'s Galaxy

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

If the track plays like Friday, Giacomo would deserve consideration.

The outside post has to cost him ground unless he finds a way to tuck in. Saving ground is going to be far more important this time. That wasn\'t a Derby winning ride last time and if given again it won\'t be a Preakness winning ride this time. Essentially, he\'s got Derby impediments without Derby bias. Clearly a beneficiary of Bounce last, but give him full credit for a 0.2 and he\'s a bounce candidate himself this time. Call him closer to a 2.2 and he may not bounce but theres quite of few horses poised to run faster than that:

Alex
Greeleys
High Fly
High Limit
Scrappy T
Noble Causeway

Bounce, Pace and Bias got Giacomo home last and even then he barely got home. He\'s gonna have to be 12-1 for a second look.

NFW

p.s. Hoss, whats your friend say. Does he have any stellar insight this time or is he sticking with Giacomo.



Post Edited (05-21-05 11:04)

[spa]

CtC, I\'ll take your first 4 and drop Scrappy/Noble for Closing Argument. The later, used the Derby as a prep!!!!

[hossgnat]

Chuckles_the_Clown2 wrote:

>
> p.s. Hoss, whats your friend say. Does he have any stellar
> insight this time or is he sticking with Giacomo.
>

Chuckles-

He\'s sticking with him, and he\'s not one to form emotional attachments.  He\'d jump off in a minute if he saw something more attractive.

FWIW, here are the somewhat humorous comments he sent me:

I am very angry that I have been labled a \"Hat Pin Annie\" by the national press based on the events in Louisville 2 weeks ago.  I guess if the columnists and talking heads never mentioned a horse, and it won, then it must have been a fluke.  (I timed the Tivo of the NBC broadcast and 12 seconds were spent on Giacomo in the hour pre-race coverage).
 
If Giacomo lost that race by a length, it would have been labled a bad trip, and he\'d probably be a 4-1 second choice, instead of a 6-1 fourth choice as winner of the Derby.  
 
I simply state that this is an improving horse, at the top of a form cycle, in capable hands, who has the right to continue moving forward after a horrid trip (8w lane, all out) in the Derby.  My suspicion is that if he gets a clear run, there is another gear.
 
Giacomo, again.

[Saddlecloth]

the track, at least after two races looks VERY kind to speed, lets check out the third as two of the speed squarely look like potential regressions to me at 9/2 and 6/1.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

My illustration assumes Closing arguement ran closer to 3.2 than 1.2 (factoring bias)

If you give him full faith and credit for a 1.2 the thoropattern would say Closing Argument is a good bet to improve/pair

hossgnat wrote:

> Chuckles_the_Clown2 wrote:
>
> >
> > p.s. Hoss, whats your friend say. Does he have any stellar
> > insight this time or is he sticking with Giacomo.
> >
>
> Chuckles-
>
> He\'s sticking with him, and he\'s not one to form emotional
> attachments.  He\'d jump off in a minute if he saw something
> more attractive.
>
> FWIW, here are the somewhat humorous comments he sent me:
>
> I am very angry that I have been labled a \"Hat Pin Annie\" by
> the national press based on the events in Louisville 2 weeks
> ago.  I guess if the columnists and talking heads never
> mentioned a horse, and it won, then it must have been a fluke.
> (I timed the Tivo of the NBC broadcast and 12 seconds were
> spent on Giacomo in the hour pre-race coverage).

Hoss this \"12 second\" rehashing comment seems to be evidence of \"bonding\" but its certainly easy to understand coarsing blood having picked a horse no one else called. I\'ve never picked a 50-1 Derby winner and don\'t ever expect to.
 
> If Giacomo lost that race by a length, it would have been
> labled a bad trip, and he\'d probably be a 4-1 second choice,
> instead of a 6-1 fourth choice as winner of the Derby.

This little comment here is also indicating some undue attachment
 
> I simply state that this is an improving horse, at the top of a
> form cycle

He was on top of it Form Cycle for the Derby, granted.

> in capable hands, who has the right to continue
> moving forward

TGraph makes him 22% to Top 51% to top or pair

> after a horrid trip (8w lane, all out) in the
> Derby.  My suspicion is that if he gets a clear run, there is
> another gear.

He\'s a grinder that caught a lot of breaks. Another Wide ride like that and sayonara for the exotics. Can\'t see it, but 6-1 or better on a Derby winner might appear enticing.



Post Edited (05-21-05 11:43)

[kev]

GIACOMO will run 1st or 2nd.

[colt]

This race is High Fly's to loose – will save a ton of ground relative to the other true contenders, i.e. Noble Causeway, Greeley\'s Galaxy, Closing Argument, Afleet Alex, Wilko, and Giacomo.  Plus High Fly is a fighter, and has the #s needed to compete here.  Giacomo is for real, but the outside post will be tough to overcome.  

The play is to use High Fly over the above mention contenders in the Ex, Tri, & Super.  Go heavy with High Fly in the pick-4/Win bet and use above mention contenders on a backup ticket in the pick-4.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

spa wrote:

> CtC, I\'ll take your first 4 and drop Scrappy/Noble for Closing
> Argument. The later, used the Derby as a prep!!!!


Spa the closer it gets to race time the more inclined I am to believe you\'re right

Alex
Closing Argument

High Fly
Greeley\'s

High Limit
Scrappy T.

The Derby winner though biggish on win odds is gonna be wrapped up in a lot of exotics and the value in my opinion is beating him out of as much as you can.

[J-DUB]

The move up by Closing Argument was not extreme and his line looks solid to me. A pair up probably wins today against this bunch.
High Fly was never comfortable in the last
(not many were) but he should get a much improved trip today. The better trip will put him right there at the finish.
Afleet Alex is another that has a solid line to me and will be close but for some reason
I don\'t think he\'s good enough to win one of these big races.
Giacomo may lose too much ground this time but has the running style to be dangerous if
Mike Smith can find the right holes again. The horse is good right now and always gives a good account in his races.

I think the pace will be hot again (not burning hot as the Derby) and the stalkers/closers will reap the rewards.

Best of luck to all!!

[Saddlecloth]

bounce?