Road to the Derby

[albatross]

Mr. Bee, as I see you commented on the West Coast Swing for the links, I’m curious if you’ve sized up the field. I’m down on a few long ones for small $. Scwartzel, Cantlay and Chris “home run” Baker just off their 2 round patterns. I see Nick Taylor just completed the 0-3 X. My question is, can you help with the ground on the 3 different tracks they’re playing. Or any input on variant with the 3 would help. Good Luck!

[BitPlayer]

Tampa Bay
2/8/20
Sam Davis
#  Odds
1   3.2
2   7.4
3   SCR
4   0.6
5   64.6
6   5.2
7   50.6
8   15.0

[Tavasco]

I want to compliment Frank D on his pic 5 post @ Tampa yesterday. I hope he was able to use his nice winners to pay the pic 5 freight.

His winners by my reckoning:

Race #8
#3 - $16.80/1 winner

Race #10
#3 - $21.00/1 winner

Race #11
#2 - $5.80/1 winner

His misses
#9 a miss when a jump up winner beat Motu and Blame Debbie didn\'t run a step.

#12 Even spreading wide one of the slowest horses in the field came home on top

[FrankD.]

Tavasco,

Thank you. It was a tough sequence to not get paid on for sure! The 12 in the last leg was one of four that would have taken down the whole pool. 3,5,9 were paying 145k so there were no more than 3 live tickets on any horse. It was one hell of a shot for a $90 post scratches ticket......

The only in sequence bet I made was the 10th race exacta box of 1,3,8 and a press of March to the Arch over the 3,8. The 3,2,1 blanket finish was a BIG OUCHIE😱

[johnnym]

Risen Star #1
Looked at this race a couple of times
Contenders.

#2) Silver State; Really like the pattern here trainer has a Thoropattern with a 33% new top and a 22% pair. Has his go to jock and finished 2 over this track last time out
Expecting a pair or a small move forward

#3) Ready to Roll; Coming back of three week rest after breaking his maiden by 7.5 over the mud surface at Oaklawn.
Pattern shows solid move forwards if he moves forward half of much as he has been makes him a solid contender here. Trainer has been solid last 90 days shows 30% new tops and winning at 29%. 20-1

#8)Enforceable, Casse and Frenchy won the local prep last time out can’t say this one hasn’t run will be his 8th race and should be in plenty of good shape.
Really like the breeding on this one making nice forwards moves has a 36% new top and 23% chance pair.
A pair is good enough for the win here.

#9)Mr.Monomy; Finished third last out in the local prep. Paired his last #. Jump up coming? Would need to jump up 4 pts in my opinion to win this with a sire that does not really show this development.

The play
#2 to win
Then ex box 2/3/8
GL

[johnnym]

Risen Star Duex
Contenders

#5) Liams Lucky; had a solid pattern then tried a route and regressed big time.
Tough read on him. Trainer doesn’t do well in stakes sharp work last out of he pairs can definitely win it 9/2

#8) Anneaj d’Or; Shipping in were he finished second to a Baffert. Training well and blinkers get added. All trainer signs point to this as a positive
One of the few to have run in a graded stakes and is the class of the race.

#12) N.Y. Traffic this damn horse just kept pulling at me. Is the fastest horse in the race. Trainer is 33% pair with second time runners after trainer change was at the Gulf for his last race and looked impressive.
If he pairs here can win and expecting a good effort second time routing.

#8 to win

8/12 box ex.

GL

[Mike C]

I also like Silver Slate, agree he is the horse to beat, but I also like #5 Moon over Miami- fastest horse who had a horrible trip in his last at GP, broke a step slow, and then was was carried out almost to the parking lot on the first turn, TG has 5W/4W, but also mentions 6W and 7W in the comments. After his fast AQ number in Dec a bounce could have been expected, so if he can work a decent trip here, and get close to his top then everyone else would need to improve to win. (I know alot of if\'s, but he is 10-1 on the ML).

[BitPlayer]

People who have seen Enforceable in the flesh seem to be impressed and think he\'ll like the 9f.  I would not be surprised to see him take more money than the 7/2 morning line suggests.

Moon Over Miami is a puzzle for me.  While he\'s a price, clearly had no chance with that trip in his last at GP, and has the fast number, my impression is that a lot of 2yo\'s who ran fast numbers at Aqueduct on 12/7 are not running back to them (Ajaweed and Blame Debbie last weekend being the latest examples).  As you say, maybe bounces are to be expected. His tendency to get wide trips is problematic in a field of this size, but I like Junior Alvarado getting back on.

[JEB]

Moon over Miami is definitely intriguing. Big 2yo number and Mott seems to be more of a player in the 3yo division the last couple of years.

I do find Scabbard a little interesting. If not for the post, I would move him way up. 4th in BC Juv. Comes back as the favorite against several of these and gets blocked.


Enforceable has a run a lot but this may not be the race to beat him.

Silver State fits what I like. Solid 2yo. Moved forward first out. Ready for another move forward.

Farmington Road. Pletcher/Castellano. Probably way down the depth chart for Pletcher but the horse has solid breeding and a move forward would not surprise me one bit. Don\'t like the post but he will be long

[BitPlayer]

FG
2/15/20
Risen Star Div. 1
#  Odds
1   10.0
2   3.2
3   46.8
4   52.0
5   19.3
6   37.6
7   4.7
8   3.1
9   6.1
10  8.8
11  7.1

[BitPlayer]

FG
2/15/20
Risen Star Div. 2
#  Odds
1   11.7
2   SCR
3   31.5
4   46.2
5   5.6
6   32.0
7   11.2
8   0.9
9   16.7
10  18.0
11  5.4
12  10.8

[jbelfior]

Not a bad effort from Farmington Road. Wide, wide, and wider versus an inside speed bias. May get the best figure in the race.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[atakante]

Was it a golden rail for both Risen Stars as some claim? They say most of the time claims of track bias is exaggerated but if that’s the real thing yesterday it’s a pity track superintendents at Fair Grounds failed to create a playing field that can live up to their name on a big day like this.

[johnnym]

Contenders With a 40% chance of rain

#1) Wells Bayou; Paired his last out while trying two turns for the first time.
20% new top with Cox winning at Oaklawn at a 25% rate.

#2) Silver Prospector; Finished 4th last out over the same surface with a 60 day layoff and paired his #. Could be sitting on a move forward with a 30% chance of doing so. Like the breeding on this one.

#3) Shoplifted; Finished 3 last out while regressing just a tad. Has the 2nd fastest # routing Which way does he go from here? Has a new jock getting 8-1 to find out.

#4) Gold Street; Is this Exaggerator 2.0? If he pairs love this pattern if it’s wet I highly doubt you get 6-1. Hard to ignore at 6-1

#9) Answer In; Second of the Cox entries and the favorite @3-1 with Catellano flying in to ride him. Paired his last two and was in a bit of trouble his last out. Getting 3-1 others faster with better odds..

Tough race
At 8-1 going with the #1 if it’s wet will go with the #4
Then Box ex 1,4,9
I actually like the Lukas horse to Possibly get a piece underneath
Tri 1/4,9/4,5,9 unless it’s wet then 4/1,9/1,5,9
GL

[big18741]

No real opinion here.

Lukas horse packed it in both times going a mile or more,but has the three
consecutive slower pairs that I like to take a flyer on for a new top this time of year.

More interested in the Razorback with Bankit 10-1 ML.
Pairing up the comeback race puts him right there.
New horse as a 4yo?