Always Dreaming

[FrankD.]

I have to start a new string as I cannot in good conscience join the BEAST band wagon yet.

Congrats to the connections and to the horse. They overcame some adversity, changed up the normal TAP Derby approach and Johnny V. put him where he needed to be on a biased track.  He faced some pressure, the fractions were fast early and he drew off never leaving the outcome in doubt.

AD had 3 things in his favor to get the blanket of roses.

1) He was not in the TAP barn as a 2 yr old. He didn\'t debut at the Spa running a
TG 3. He only had 2 starts, he was not thrown to the wolves ala Syndergard after a gut wrenching Champagne tossed into the BC juvenile.

2) He was babied like no other TAP 3yr old on the Derby trail ever has been before. A Tampa Wednesday maiden breaker with JV making the trip north to ride him against nothing. Then not sent right in to the FOY as per normal MO. Todd got PJ Campo to write a race for him, that Alw race was not in the GP condition book.

There is a lot of debate about the 2 pre Florida Derby figures. Miff who we all know and most have a lot of respect for his conversion of numbers per TG, Rags & Beyer swore that TG was off in the Tampa race per the others. By his conversion of all figs and putting into TG terms had him 10-5-5-8-1. Still not a pretty sheet by any stretch of the imagination, especially heading into The Derby.
Sekrah by whatever method of subtraction etc... questioned both of the figs. I don\'t buy random figure adjustment, it\'s a tricky slope.... I talk with Miff and Jimbo quite a bit and both have been the biggest pain in JB\'s butt about questioning his figs over the years. One a bit more eloquent than the other.

The Tampa track is a quirky one, it\'s a bit deeper than GP and a lot of top outfits have chosen to race and train over it building a foundation. I may question a ground loaded fig from time to time or ala Practical Joke trust my eyes more than the number is the number. I don\'t know anything about Tampa and the Alw race at Gulf was again against nothing on a windy day that produced the slowest raw times of the GP winter meet. So you can argue for a week about the 2 pre FL Derby races but the end result was still not a healthy developing 3 yr old pattern leading to a peak performance on the first Saturday in May. FL Derby, explosive race, BIG new top, visually impressive beating not so much.

So you have a non typical FL winter road to the Derby campaign by a Pletcher horse running a big top no matter how you put in perspective. A losing proposition to most and at the very least a suckers value of 9/2. The horse was handled with kid gloves, lightly raced, not tested and earned his big top with visual ease.

3)The Derby week weather and track maintenance was the final piece in this perfect Derby storm. Anyone who wants to question the overall inside not always speed bias of Oaks & Derby day better bring their A game to debate me about it...
Battle of Midway 2p all the way around following AD and LAL with Corey doing his best Calvin Bo-Rail imitation both ran a lot faster than they ever have before today. How JB does this stand alone race this year with weather is a mystery but I know enough of figure projections to back up the above line.

AD will be even money or less in 2 weeks. Maybe then we can determine Beast status....

Good luck,

Frank D.

[TGJB]

Figures will be interesting to do, but it can\'t be a big one for AD, two slow horses near him. At best a pair. Almost certainly the race collapsed in terms of the fast horses not running their races.

It\'s worth remembering that no one outcome is proof of anything. It\'s not even significant evidence, it\'s a data point, along with many others. After the race all outcomes are 100%.

[jp702006]

Pace seemed quite honest for the first 6f. Last 4f were run in 52 and change. That type of come home time doesn\'t seem anywhere in the ballpark of AD\'s Florida Derby effort or figure. Just my humble opinion, but I would think a regression of a couple of points would seem more accurate.

Patrick

[jimbo66]

First off, congrats to Furious Pete and a few others that liked Always Dreaming.  Personally, couldn\'t have been more wrong about the race.  Hated Always Dreaming and loved Practical Joke and Irish War Cry.  The latter was horrendous and the former was just OK (got a ride I could not have expected from post 19 - in a good way, and still was relatively empty).

Despite Treadhead and Jerry apparently not noticing, the rail was iron for almost the two full days.  And as is the case with iron rails, speed was really good as well.  

That said, hard to say how much that helped AD as he set a \"plus\" pace, put away a horse up front that wasn\'t any good (stately honor), then put away the fastest horse in the race (Irish War Cry) and was drawing away in the stretch.  While speed and the rail were good, the visual on the derby wasn\'t one of a bias win.  Bias aided wins look like Big World and Benner Island on Friday and CAviar Czar on Saturday.  Where the front runner looks like they will be swallowed on the turn and through most of the stretch but they miraculously \"keep finding\".  

This horse was extremely good, bias or not.  I, for one, am not salivating to bet against (or on) him in 2 weeks in the Preakness.  Part of that is that exactly who ran well enough yesterday to give a mulligan to?  Maybe Classic Empire, off a terrible trip?  Not lookin at lee, who never left a gold rail (great ride).

TGJB, as for the figure.  there were 8 lengths between the winner and the third place finisher.  I can\'t imagine this is going to be a slow figure.  Or a backwards move as JP702006 suggests.  What, every horse then X\'ed?  Literally every one.  

How about another view.  The Bluegrass being as fast as TG had it, meant a couple of key things.  It meant McCracken was sitting on a nice forward move, perhaps the most likely horse to run well, it meant Practical Joke had a forward moving line with moderate steps and looked great as well.  Well, make the Bluegrass two points slower, which is not out of line, all of a sudden McCracken and Practical Joke are both moving backwards, not forwards, Classic Empire still hasn\'t gotten to his 2 year old top and with Irish War Cry sitting on a possible bounce, all the \"fast horses\" maybe don\'t run.  (which happened.)

Not sour grapes, just a thought.

Jim

[jbelfior]

Interesting that both Pletcher Derby wins came under similar conditions. Inside trips on off tracks both drawing away late.

Thought McCracken was making a big move when wiped out by a bearing out Gormley. Would not have won, but certainly could have run at least 3rd. Tapwrit had a rough trip but so did half the field according to the chart.

Point is that its tough to accurately gauge performances yesterday based on trips and conditions. I agree with you that inside was the place to be. Those who had LAL and cashed still have time to get to church this morning.

Those on here that liked AD and stuck to it, nice job.

Let\'s see what happens in 2 weeks. IMO, an excellent opportunity lies ahead.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TreadHead]

Jimbo,
I understand that the only way you can make yourself feel better at this point is to put names to your strawmen and try to beat on them, but for the third time, I have already agreed that the first half of Oaks card was speed favoring, and then suggested you should go back and actually watch the last 4 dirt races that day instead of using what happened earlier in the day to bias your opinion.  You apparently still have not done that, because to argue that a speed bias existed in those 4 races is impossible to do.

And I never made any comments about Saturday\'s track at all.  But I get it, you need someone to beat on, so why not attach my name to some made up assertion I never made and call it out publicly to distract away from how ridiculous your pre-race comments were.

As for the \"how can we improve next time\" post-mortem....

I think pedigree still has to account for something.  Not saying you base an entire opinion off it, but the name of the game is how fast is each horse going to run TODAY.  When trying out new distances/surfaces, especially longer ones, simply taking a dogmatic view of who had the previously \"fastest\" figures without accounting for how the new conditions might impact their ability to run what they otherwise might seems to be missing key thought.

FrankD mentioned the \"eye test\" when it came to PJ not being able to get past Irap at 9F.  That was more than just an \"eye test\".  The pedigree data, avg winning dist etc, has always been there to suggest that this horse will be great at 8F, and might start diminishing as you move past that.  The Bluegrass visual was a hint that the pedigree data was correct, and has been further validated with the performance yesterday and Brown\'s comments.

Sometimes these 3yr old races require an additional level creative thinking, not just dogmatic number reading, and that was the point Sekrah and FuriousPete went into detail about prior to the race.  Another example I\'ll throw out is the last ROTW 3yr old stakes, the Ill Derby, since I commented on it prior to that race.  The 2 \"slowest\" horses in the race ran 1-2.  The pure TG figure read was to back a horse who figured to not be as good as the races got longer, and was heavily overraced during the winter.  That didn\'t work out well their either.

Last comment... the seminar mentioned O\'Neil horses and their out of Cali jumps.  Have a look at Denman\'s Call from yesterday, they jump up in Cali as well.  Though he did not burn us yesterday, there may not be a more frustrating trainer to have in a race at a major track right now because of the number of 5+ point jumps he throws out there.

[FrankD.]

Jimbo,

Every coin has 2 sides.

You can draw a line through quite a few horses PP\'s over the past 2 days. Many  simply were not allowed to run their race due to where they were or how they were ridden? Did IWC bounce or was his stalking move under normal conditions the correct one but not yesterday? The best example was the first race that we discussed yesterday. Saved by the Swell looked like a TG stick out, made a rail run backside into the turn get to the first flight, tipped out in the lane looking like he was blowing by the inside horses then NADA. I\'ll be betting this one back with both hands next out!

IMHO: There is no need to revisit previous figures based on yesterday\'s or Friday\'s results.

A confusing non profitable couple days here,

Frank D.

[Leamas57]

Right on, Tread.

Jumbo trolled the shit out of me you and some others on this site.  He even went after the weather people   He thought AD would place last, he made fun of Battle of Midway when I said the horse would run a big race, and he constantly took things out of context so he could do his bullying troll routine.

 And since he\'s probably reading this because that\'s what trolls do, I want him to know that I take back that I ever said he was an expert. -- Expert troll, maybe. But that\'s it.

Leamas

[big18741]

McCraken has the same distance limitations as PJ.
I think it\'s obvious now.

Similar moves coming off the turn in the KYJC,Sam Davis,BG and again yesterday.
He won a couple at 8.5f\'s but that\'s where he maxed out.

They had him ready to run yesterday.Looks like his best distance will be a one turn mile or maybe as a closing sprinter.

[albatross]

Well said Mr. Leamas57. I read here often, but post rarely. Thank You for bringing up your point, no one likes a Bully. Years ago, when we had to be face to face talking at the track or OTB, you had to be more careful of what you say and to who. Nice to see someone step up here, because no matter how wealthy or eloquent a bully can be, he\'s still a bully.

[jerry]

Nice thoughts.

On Practical Joke, he ran his race. Maybe a little short on pedigree. Maybe just doesn\'t mind losing. Maybe a little of both.

On McCraken, he was no lock to go either way. Not the fastest going in on a line that\'s become a sucker\'s line, an unblemished but too brief resume. Also a rough trip.

As for the rail bias, I don\'t remember which race I\'d just watched, maybe the 8th or 10th, but it seemed to play pretty fairly to all paths. Maybe not but closers has some say in the outcome and not all races were won from rail.

[jimbo66]

Tread / Leamas / Albatross,

Wish you continued success in your business/career aspirations, so that you can remain as contributors to the betting pools.

Leamas,

Pointing out nonsensical statements, incorrect assertions, bad conclusions and mostly drivel, on a board where people talk about sophisticated handicapping, is not \"trolling\".  

Albatross,

Rest assured, seeing you, or anybody, in person wouldn\'t change a word that I said.

[jerry]

Big Jimbo66

[belmont3]

Frank,

Agree with the unprofitable part.
I left some hay money in Elmont and still cannot figure how I snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. LOL

As to the CD \"track bias\".
I think you can look at the \'visual\' and then look at the \"data\" or the charts.


1)  OAKS DAY --somewhat deceiving

4 of first 6 races were wtw types and a couple of 3 path to 5 path types. (Most were pretty formful).

As pointed out by Tread, the rest if the card (9th, 11th, 12th, 13th) were all closers.

2) Derby Day-

Race 1- Maximus used rail. #8 (finished 2nd) ran wide
Race 2) No More Dough- a Closer along rail
Race 3) Rocket Time- off pace swung wide. Mo Tom (2nd) closed wide)
Race 4) Caviar Czar - guided off fence
Race 5) TURF- Sir Dudley -wide- will mention that Forge and Ghurair attempted rail moves)
Race 6) Paulasilverlining- raced off rail and off pace
Race 7) Roco Rijo-(TURF) \'prompted pace 4 path! Chart seems to indicate every horse was steered off hedge.
Race Wild Shot- \'tracked 4 wide. No Dozing (2nd) came 5 wide
Race 9) Arklow (TURF)-raced 7th path and came 5 wide- of note- both Oscar and Holiday Stone were near hedge
Race 10) Limousine Liberal- 3 wide closer. Awesome Slew rail with a capital T line and Tom\'s Ready ran wide (3rd) Denman had the rail.
Race 11) TURF- Divisidiero came wide, Beach Patrol set pace off hedge- Conquest went to hedge
Rae 12) Always Dreaming- rail trip Ditto LAL.
Race 13) Visionary Tale close to pace. Inside out
Race 14) Wicked Macho- WTW -  

My conclusions:

 I am somewhat the anti-Serling when it comes to assigning a track bias. Andy, of course assigns a bias to every track 366 days per/year! Rumor has it that Andy has an I Phone BIAS ALERT APP to remind him that on this day 10 years ago the rail was dead at Oshkosh Downs.

Anyway:

OAKS day: Have to go with the Treadster---Hard to conclude a definite bias.  (As far as track bias. Maybe there was track maintenance involved but, overall, the day seemed fair.  

DERBY DAY- DIRT- not entirely conclusive to me that a bias existed all day. Was informed by an on track Tgenerate that the track was sealed just before the Derby for the first time all day.
           TURF--I am pretty solid in the camp that the May 6th was a dead turf rail day at CD. The few that stayed inside did not fire and it seems most stayed off the hedge.

Bob

[ajkreider]

I didn\'t cash the derby.  And though I had AD on top of a few tickets, even his biggest fans had reason to be worried.  The pattern just wasn\'t there.  

One doesn\'t identify experts (in horse racing, or anything else) by looking at who called what for a particular event.  Hell, my wife took down my March Madness pool one year because she \"had a friend who lived in Arizona\". (As far as TG goes, there were plenty of decent priced winners to be found on the sheets yesterday.)

We\'re all big boys on this site, and should be able take a little heat.  Congrats on BoW, btw. I didn\'t have him on a single ticket.