Always Dreaming

[hellersorr]

Well, then, let me make an auspicious (or perhaps inauspicious) debut with this thought:  Perhaps it would be a good idea for Jerry Brown not to refer to non-Kool-Aid posters as \"nuts.\"

[TGJB]

The nuts reference had nothing to do with handicapping. They didn\'t show up, and I miss them. I think.

[FrankD.]

Hellersorr,

First off Kool-Aide is spelled this way here....
Second this board does not discriminate as to nuts, Kool-Aide, non partakers,
we have certifiables of all sorts.

It\'s a tough room to work and one who makes a post,states an opinion industry related or handicapping had better be prepared to defend their position. Does it get crazy, emotional, sarcastic and sometimes a bit personal at times?
It certainly does, you re dealing with some passionate people that are deeply entrenched in a game that defines non-exact science and yes there are many ways to the finish line.

I\'m even finding myself agreeing with BBB and that is the ultimate long shot!!!
The game and this board needs new faces and fresh opinions.

So welcome aboard, don\'t be shy, wear your tough skin at times and feel free to enlighten Jimbo anytime......

In the New York figure making world the Communists far outnumber the Buddhists 🐎

Good Luck,

Frank D.

[T Severini]

jimbo66 Wrote:
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> First off, congrats to Furious Pete and a few
> others that liked Always Dreaming.  Personally,
> couldn\'t have been more wrong about the race.
> Hated Always Dreaming and loved Practical Joke and
> Irish War Cry.  The latter was horrendous and the
> former was just OK (got a ride I could not have
> expected from post 19 - in a good way, and still
> was relatively empty).

Its so hard for me to correct my insights after a run on a surface like that. Rather, having a 3 run horse second and a 6 horse run third the inclination is to ask how did the surface allow them to place like that? Furthermore the number of Negative Number horses was winnowed down this year and some had reasons to not  run their race and horses like Lookin at Lee looked to improve too.

>
> Despite Treadhead and Jerry apparently not
> noticing, the rail was iron for almost the two
> full days.  And as is the case with iron rails,
> speed was really good as well.

By the 12th on Saturday it was the place to be.

 
>
> That said, hard to say how much that helped AD as
> he set a \"plus\" pace, put away a horse up front
> that wasn\'t any good (stately honor), then put
> away the fastest horse in the race (Irish War Cry)
> and was drawing away in the stretch.  While speed
> and the rail were good, the visual on the derby
> wasn\'t one of a bias win.  Bias aided wins look
> like Big World and Benner Island on Friday and
> CAviar Czar on Saturday.  Where the front runner
> looks like they will be swallowed on the turn and
> through most of the stretch but they miraculously
> \"keep finding\".  
>
> This horse was extremely good, bias or not.  I,
> for one, am not salivating to bet against (or on)
> him in 2 weeks in the Preakness.  Part of that is
> that exactly who ran well enough yesterday to give
> a mulligan to?  Maybe Classic Empire, off a
> terrible trip?  Not lookin at lee, who never left
> a gold rail (great ride).
>
> TGJB, as for the figure.  there were 8 lengths
> between the winner and the third place finisher.
> I can\'t imagine this is going to be a slow figure.
>  Or a backwards move as JP702006 suggests.  What,
> every horse then X\'ed?  Literally every one.  
>
> How about another view.  The Bluegrass being as
> fast as TG had it, meant a couple of key things.
> It meant McCracken was sitting on a nice forward
> move, perhaps the most likely horse to run well,
> it meant Practical Joke had a forward moving line
> with moderate steps and looked great as well.
> Well, make the Bluegrass two points slower, which
> is not out of line, all of a sudden McCracken and
> Practical Joke are both moving backwards, not
> forwards, Classic Empire still hasn\'t gotten to
> his 2 year old top and with Irish War Cry sitting
> on a possible bounce, all the \"fast horses\" maybe
> don\'t run.  (which happened.)

Add to that a 12th race surface punishing certain running styles and rewarding others.

 
> Not sour grapes, just a thought.

Now the barn is calling him the second coming of Sliced Bread, but what about the Super Saver Derby? Always Dreaming certainly ran hard and with two weeks til the next on an advanced 3YO campaign could fall off if someone is there good enough.
 
> Jim

[richiebee]

bellsbendboy Wrote:
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> Understand JB, I was out of line and JIMBO I
> apologize.
>
> The impetus behind my angst was instigated by
> another forum poster, a number of  years ago, on
> another board.  This poster castigated novices
> mercifully and caused many to discontinue their
> interest  
>
> The sport needs new players. Derby time attracts
> interest from newbies and they should be
> encouraged not repulsed.  bbb

Triple B:

Methinks you exaggerate a bit here to make your point.

Thoroughbred racing....whether you are up at dawn seven days a week on the
backstretch trying to scratch out a living or sitting in Living Room Downs
trying to cash a wager while not ruining your liver, is the toughest game
played outdoors.

The nature of parimutuel wagering is such that you can be sitting with a friend
in the grandstand. Your friend cashes large; you tap out. Tough. The racetrack
took 17% from both you and your friend in order to undertake this distribution
of wealth. Tough.

My point is that if the newbies can not take a bit of snarling from a Jimbo
like poster (Jimbo, by the way, is far less terrifying than Frank\'s aging,
incontinent Jack Russell terrier), they are probably not going to play the game
on a long term basis.

Those looking for kinder/gentler, and who have no sense of humor about
themselves (seriousness, a deadly sin), should probably try the Ragozin Board,
home of the Double Crown, where the community is dedicated to convincing Ken
Sherman that he is perfectly sane.

Even more kinder and gentler, it seems like NBC\'s TV coverage of the Derby was
aimed at a segment of the population I never realized was heavily into
pari-mutuel wagering. The highlight of the coverage for me was a brief
interview with Jeff Bridges.

(Movie quip: Jeff Bridges\' turn as the \"Dude\" nearly as impressive as George C.
Scott\'s General Patton. Sustained brilliance.)

So welcome to the pool newbies. You are swimming with whales and sharks. Good
luck. And just remember, as Furious Pete said, the whole purpose of a forum
such as this is a group effort at solving a puzzle. Right?

[Topcat]

T Severini Wrote:
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> >
> >
> > Among Kent\'s worst rides ever . . . going some,
> I
> > know . . .
>
> Topcat, Kent said that at no point in the race did
> he have a horse and that\'s what it looked like
> here.  Isolated him on replays and he moved
> towards the rail and then ran wide coming around
> the final turn, lost ground from there. Don\'t
> think the wide or bias was the reason, just not
> enough horse. The good news unless he was hurting
> from the get go, he certainly didn\'t put out much
> energy that race.
>
> Haven\'t seen him as a Preakness go yet but if he
> gets in and its not slop I\'ll go again. He had to
> improve to get up there, but he was on a pretty
> good forge pattern and to me my eye was really
> bred for it. Look at his final work especially in
> regard to his race fractions. I thought he was
> poised.



My beef was/is that going wide for any appreciable portion of those proceedings was willful suicide.  He needed a trip, for sure, but Kent was too wide for too long for anything else to matter.  Agree there figure to be better days ahead for him.

[Furious Pete]

Fear not, aspiring horse gamblers, a shark in a cage is not as dangerous as it thinks.

[boardedup]

As to the rail bias, on NBC\'s coverage immediately after Johnny V crossed the finish line and they could get camera\'s in his face Lanerie comes up beside him and could clearly be heard saying paraphrasing here, \"what I tell you about the rail being the place to,  happy you listened to me now.\"  As they were both laughing to each other in obvious joy.

They clearly were talking about the rail being hot and it was on camera less than a minute after the race.  So if nothing else the Jockey\'s that rode the rail thought there was a bias big time, they were literally laughing about it.

[Airnate012]

To go along with that...Did anyone hear Casse before the race talking about needing to get Classic Empire to the rail? I sure did.

[boardedup]

Yeah, it seemed that the people involved in the race were pulling no punches, the rail was the place to be for the 12th period.  AD was a winner every step of the way regardless but the rail certainly helped all that hit the board.

Would agree that CE is the one who ran best against the bias and with another tough trip.

[Niall]

I was able to watch the replay of the NBC telecast and all they could talk about was the rail being golden.

[Michael D.]

boardedup Wrote:
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> As to the rail bias, on NBC\'s coverage immediately
> after Johnny V crossed the finish line and they
> could get camera\'s in his face Lanerie comes up
> beside him and could clearly be heard saying
> paraphrasing here, \"what I tell you about the rail
> being the place to,  happy you listened to me
> now.\"  As they were both laughing to each other in
> obvious joy.
>
> They clearly were talking about the rail being hot
> and it was on camera less than a minute after the
> race.  So if nothing else the Jockey\'s that rode
> the rail thought there was a bias big time, they
> were literally laughing about it.




Corey: \"I guess that advice to stay on the rail paid off, huh? Hahaha.\"

[Tavasco]

After watching the replay several times I\'m surprised Lanerie had such a clear path open in lane one. Amazing as it seems, it could be that only two size 4 hats understood that running inside out of the second turn and down the stretch was a good idea.

The rest seemed to just fan out as if they expected to mount a late run only to lose ground and run in place for the most part. I consider it odd that most all avoided the inside coming home as if they thought it was not the place to be?

Obviously Classic Empire finished well but IWC finished suspiciously bad. He came a running off the turn and just hung then stopped. Even though I have seen no official report and don\'t expect too, his stop in the FOY and now again suggests to me that indeed this horse is fragile.

Making performance figures for this race boggles my mind. My view is some ran poorly because of the wet track. some ran poorly because of the added distance, some ran poorly because it was a fast pace, some ran poorly because they had run so well in their previous race. But which is which? As has been previously speculated they all go backwards except a few. Yet I\'m going to have to think twice before holding this race against any regardless how poorly they performed. For Example Thunder Snow! Ha.

[TGJB]

Watch the replays of the Derbies Borel and Cordero won, three each.

[TempletonPeck]

Thunder Snow\'s performance rating may be \"8 seconds\" ;-)

I feel entitled to this joke as I was one of those who lost money trying to BUCK the Dubai Derby -> KY Derby trend.  I\'ll see myself out...