Always Dreaming

[Furious Pete]

I just want to say a couple of things before I\'ll leave this place alone for a little while, all in all it\'s been fun.

First of all, I appreciate this non-biased resumé of yesterdays winning performance Jimbo. I think what you say about AD and PJ (yesterday) is spot on.

So you backed a loser, no big deal, we all do it more often than we like to admit and it is an essential part of this game we all (mostly) love. That\'s why I\'ve been sort of taken aback with the lack of humility a few people have shown around here, because we all know that none of us know everything, and well, let\'s just say that there is no shortage of humbling experiences along the way in horse racing.

Then there is the ego. Let\'s face it, we\'re all probably narcissists to some degree just for trying to beat this game in the first place. That\'s why there is a lot of ego floating around here, but there is also a lot of great brain power, expertise and experience. My tip to all of us is to constantly aim to chose phrasings and be making points designed to stirr up that brain power, rather than the ego. One should always make the fights about facts, ideas and arguments, and never ever about the person. We all hide behind nick names and one never know who is actually providing the winning arguments, that\'s why the aggressive, personal attacks on \"everyone\" that disagree, from you in particular Jimbo, is catasthropic for the discussion climate around here. You should really be better than that. We\'re not \"zen buddhists\" any of us and the only thing one accomplishes by making things so personal is to divert that \"group genius\" away from solving actual problems. It get\'s repetetive, boring, unintellectual, unstimulating, exhausting, and repetetive (pun intended). I have certainly contributed to that myself during this derby run up, but sometimes one just have to stand up to the bullies and that\'s what it feels like I\'ve been doing.  

A lot of the \"unsound dynamics\" on this board would be solved if everyone actually tried to comprehend one posters message before answering it, no matter how \"unelegant\" that message might have been composed. I think everyone on here saw that TreadHead didn\'t neglect a possible speed bias on friday, he only disagreed with the assessment of it being there throughout the entire race day,  
and he haven\'t said a thing about a possible bias this or that yesterday at all. He is spot on on his assessment of how you\'ve been treating him, for that. That should be unacceptable behavior, if one were to get a good thing going on this board.

When that is said, one should also be a little more forgiving. When someone offers you a chance to be the better man, everyone should take it. There is oftentimes a fine line between a fight about ideas and arguments, and a fight that gets personal, and it is easy to get carried away sometimes. If you see someone \"bullying\", step in and make things straight in a factual and non-debatable matter. If someone is using straw men arguments to punch someone in the face, arrest them for it. It\'s easy to get carried away, there too. TGJB were right to call me out on a few of them earlier in the week, and was probably wrong to ascribe me to a few of them, too. I didn\'t really want to \"dis\" sheet theory in general, the only point I really wanted to make was that in this particular Derby I felt it could be a slippery slope. And things evolved from there.

But first of all, be open to other peoples ideas. It\'s more than fair enough that this is a TG-board and that most people on here is most interested in patterns and figures and all that, sure! I have a lot to learn about \"sheet theory\", patterns, 2yo foundations, spacing, and all that, and believe it or not I\'m very interested in learning more about it too. But the more \"biased\" and \"conformist\" this forum is about the solution to one particular problem, the more you should appreciate when someone else is offering a different lense to look at this problem from. At least don\'t go all in on chasing them away! It\'s not necessarily, but it very well could be, groupthinking ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Groupthink ) when \"the whole board\" are betting one horse, ascribing him a 25 % chance, and the horse goes off at 27-1. At least consider it. Be the devil\'s advocate if necessary, but not in an overly aggressive way. Better yet, be your own devil\'s advocate. Doub\'t for a little while. Go some extra steps. Explore. Challenge. Turn some stones. And first after all of this, should you go with YOUR gut. Otherwise you\'ll take the fun away.

That\'s my two cents on this, anyway, do with it whatever you want.

Just remember,

\"Leap of faith - yes, but only after reflection.\" - Soren Kierkegaard

[FrankD.]

Bob,

If that\'s your A game argument? You\'re getting old. Oh was that being a bully 😇

Oaks Day as mentioned previously the track was sealed only in the first 2 paths until before the feature when the entire track was sealed. Ditto for Derby day as you said and our information came from the same drunk....

Definite change in the flow for later races on Friday and I did not bet or watch last 2 on Saturday. You are an admitted non believer of track bias, you re certainly not alone. TGJB takes a lot of convincing before admitting their existence. No doubt they are haplessly over stated, exaggerated and prematurely labeled most of the time by the guys that handicap in between races.

I bet my money just like you do yours and my book for CD on 5/5, 5/6 has Golden Rail and 2 path both days. I will bet back with my money a few that ran against that grain and were compromised.

I could swear in a text we exchanged yesterday that you weren\'t even betting Churchill? Some Belmont pick 4 babble, thought you were BBB.....

Can\'t wait to argue with you live and in person in the back yard.

Your friend and non sensitive bully,

Frank D.

[belmont3]

You are pretty astute.

No argument with the getting old!!



And Yes, I did not bet CD after the first few. Did play Oaks day with very small success in the end.
But I did watch them all.
I also read the charts to and even took notes. (Sean should be proud!)

As far as track bias.
They happen no doubt.
As you pointed out, they are most useful in betting back horses comprised by the bias.
On bias, I am like Fairmount....from Missouri....Show Me.

[BitPlayer]

Pete -

Your post reminded me of the following post from long ago regarding what makes sheets players successful:

https://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,20779,21052#msg-21052

[bellsbendboy]

Jimbo\'s attacks probably generated by his own understanding that his handicapping acumen is not among the top half of the posters here. I do not view it as personal.  bbb

[Fairmount1]

First, I was dead wrong on Always Dreaming and it cost me a $1 tri as I played tickets that included LAL in 2nd spot and BOM in the 3rd spot although the horses I keyed most prominently on top did not show up.  I just wanted to own up to this on the board and compliment TAP for a job well done to have his horse ready to win the Derby.  Kudos to all that said AD was a solid wager before the race.  

A few notes on yesterday\'s track.  I sat on the rail in the first turn nearly all day save the trips for some food, beer, betting, etc.  It rained lightly all morning and I sat in it to save the tables our group wanted once the weather improved.  The track was sealed during this time and throughout the day.  At some point in the afternoon the sun began to emerge and I told my friends it may dry the outter paths first and the inside wouldn\'t be as prominent as it had been possibly.  After a decent amount of time a tractor was brought out and the track was harrowed one tractor path at the rail.  During this time that they started to harrow the track (open it up a better term?) it started to pour down rain for a solid 10 to 15 minutes I\'m guessing (no races run over the track as they just started to harrow it when it rained).  After or during that rain, the track was sealed again and was not harrowed again.  Timing is a little fuzzy so I\'m not certain how many times they sealed it after that rain. I can confirm they did not harrow it again unless it was after the Derby that I saw.    

So the track was mess, a very tricky read once it was sunny and then rained again (from my persective handicapping the dirt races). One of my buddies that isn\'t quick to yell \"bias\" said he thought the rail was the place to be all weekend and was saying it early and often on Friday and through Saturday.  Not sure any of this helps or matters now but just wanted to be clear on all these things.  

Several really good stories from the weekend that I\'ll save for Travers weekend!  I will note that as Asmussen walked by the rail after the Derby (heading back to the barn area) I asked if he was headed to the Belmont with LAL and he smiled and said \"Hell yeah!\"  It will be interesting to see if he runs in the Preakness or not as I saw him already listed as a projected starter.  So maybe he runs in Baltimore and Ny.

[TGJB]

BBB-- What generated yours?

[T Severini]

Got back on the Derby winner for the first time in many years, only problem was didn\'t cash a cent. Having got beat on Bodemeister there should have been some \"its ok now\" and there weren\'t.  

One of my money horses was Sonneteer and understanding that races can collapse on slop what really irks me is that I factored a big run from Sonneteer on among other things, The Rebel, where he beat Looking at Lee. Well that\'s horse racing.

If it had been Sonneteer in second I couldn\'t even make this post. IF IF IF IF IF

If Only

Will get Sonneteer into the discussion later permitting.

[TGJB]

He\'s back...

[T Severini]

Unfortunately cannot say that after that race and once again he was a favorite.

Appreciate the chance to review the Figs. Very interesting year leading up. Noticed you selected Irish War Cry coming off the largest negative number. That\'s a change?

[T Severini]

jerry Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Nice thoughts.
>
> On Practical Joke, he ran his race. Maybe a little
> short on pedigree. Maybe just doesn\'t mind losing.
> Maybe a little of both.
>
> On McCraken, he was no lock to go either way. Not
> the fastest going in on a line that\'s become a
> sucker\'s line, an unblemished but too brief
> resume. Also a rough trip.
>
> As for the rail bias, I don\'t remember which race
> I\'d just watched, maybe the 8th or 10th, but it
> seemed to play pretty fairly to all paths. Maybe
> not but closers has some say in the outcome and
> not all races were won from rail.


Jerry bias and path will likely be a major topic here in the next couple weeks. Watching the post parade taking place at mid track couldn\'t help but notice how the hooves were being \"sucked\" as they lifted out of the ooze. Realized that closer to the rail that phenomena was less likely to exist due to moisture wicking that way. It certainly didn\'t look as deep nearer the rail. What happened in the 8th and 10th races with the sun drying the place may or may not be relevant by the 12th.

[Topcat]

T Severini Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Got back on the Derby winner for the first time in
> many years, only problem was didn\'t cash a cent.
> Having got beat on Bodemeister there should have
> been some \"its ok now\" and there weren\'t.  
>
> One of my money horses was Sonneteer and
> understanding that races can collapse on slop what
> really irks me is that I factored a big run from
> Sonneteer on among other things, The Rebel, where
> he beat Looking at Lee. Well that\'s horse racing.
>
> If it had been Sonneteer in second I couldn\'t even
> make this post. IF IF IF IF IF
>
> If Only
>
> Will get Sonneteer into the discussion later
> permitting.


Among Kent\'s worst rides ever . . . going some, I know . . .

[T Severini]

>
>
> Among Kent\'s worst rides ever . . . going some, I
> know . . .

Topcat, Kent said that at no point in the race did he have a horse and that\'s what it looked like here.  Isolated him on replays and he moved towards the rail and then ran wide coming around the final turn, lost ground from there. Don\'t think the wide or bias was the reason, just not enough horse. The good news unless he was hurting from the get go, he certainly didn\'t put out much energy that race.

Haven\'t seen him as a Preakness go yet but if he gets in and its not slop I\'ll go again. He had to improve to get up there, but he was on a pretty good forge pattern and to me my eye was really bred for it. Look at his final work especially in regard to his race fractions. I thought he was poised.

[bellsbendboy]

Understand JB, I was out of line and JIMBO I apologize.

The impetus behind my angst was instigated by another forum poster, a number of  years ago, on another board.  This poster castigated novices mercifully and caused many to discontinue their interest  

The sport needs new players. Derby time attracts interest from newbies and they should be encouraged not repulsed.  bbb

[T Severini]

jp702006 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Pace seemed quite honest for the first 6f. Last 4f
> were run in 52 and change. That type of come home
> time doesn\'t seem anywhere in the ballpark of AD\'s
> Florida Derby effort or figure. Just my humble
> opinion, but I would think a regression of a
> couple of points would seem more accurate.
>
> Patrick


Track Rating was Sloppy/Sealed for the 1st thru the 6th. At race 8 until the end rating changed to Wet-Fast/Sealed.  It sure looks like the closing fractions from the 8th onward were less than stellar for all horses.

If my horse were running in the Derby I would have wanted him tactically placed and/or hugging the inner paths and to my eye most of the placing horses did precisely that. If you\'re looking for a run against bias to my eye its CE