Always Dreaming

[Tavasco]

I watched them all with interest. Twenty three horses in 1974. I\'m not sure when the overhead view came in but the 2010 video included it. Geesh, and everybody is curious about what your numbers are on Sunday.

The BOM purchase looking good so far.

[FrankD.]

Bee,

Please do not ever label me again as the owner of the worst dog ever...
Laura has owned the lovely cainine for 14 years well before me. She and her 12 yr old male gelded chihuahua who is always trying to hump her are the only 2 beings on earth that like her. I think Danny (chihuahua) just wants to tell the other boys he did the worst dog ever. Locker room talk Ala Donald Trump.....

[boardedup]

I was shocked the rail was there for him to, being able to \"cut the corner.\"  PJ was on the rail, Rosario swung him out, IWC like you said went wide and stopped, really it is beyond comprehension why some chose the wider trip?

[moosepalm]

Rosario did such a great job of getting PJ to the inside from the 19th post out of the gate, but then approaching the turn, while he still had access to the rail ahead of LAL, he opts for the overland route.  Did he think the benefit of the inside was just an illusion?

[trwhis2]

Lanerie\'s ride on LAL was IDENTICAL to his ride on Cherry Wine last year in the Preakness. Similar result.

[boardedup]

Complete head scratcher, no idea why he left the rail after positioning himself so well?

[Rich Curtis]

JB:

Do you think the inside was golden on Derby day?

[TGJB]

I didn\'t really look, but it would be easy enough for someone to do a study using the figures we posted.

[Furious Pete]

It looks very hard to establish an inside bias on the dirt both friday and saturday IMHO, just by going with the figures. Plenty of tops and pair ups from the wide paths both days. The best case for it being there could probably be made for the first three or four races on friday, but even that takes a bit of handicapping to get to. If so, one would have to have Elate running a huge new top (in effect), but that is completely plausible. If Street Bizz was running against a \"golden rail\", she too ran a race better than any of her previous - again it\'s plausible. And Dancing All Night ran a absolute huge race in her racing debut. My gut feeling is that this might\'ve been the case and that the rail was very good in those first three or four races on friday, but then it seems pretty fair from there, IF relying on the figures (and shouldn\'t we?).

All else equal the rail is obviously the place to be, it shouldn\'t surprise anyone on this board to see many winners saving ground. I saw someone mention Benner Island as the prime example of a horse winning because of an inside speed bias, but what do you say about Laney then?

That said, when you say that you haven\'t really looked TGJB, does this mean that if the evidence is not VERY heavy for or against a bias (i.e a dead rail or something like that) - you will weigh each horse in a race equally to get a race to fit? Would you care to elaborate a bit about your thinking around these issues? It sure isn\'t a problem that have an \"easy fix\"!

[TGJB]

We don\'t make quantitative adjustments, i.e. add or subtract for path or \"bias\". We mark dead rails when there is substantial evidence that almost all horses that ran on it ran poorly relative to their figure histories.

[Furious Pete]

Cheers and understood, a very predictable approach for us customers and that sure is worth something.

I thought that I had seen you write somewhere on here that you did remove the inside horses from your \"equation\" on those days with a dead rail, but then I guess I must\'ve misinterpreted that?

It sure is room for error there, and the potential to \"skew things up\" on weird days, but that risk exists anyway you go about this and I do believe your way is as sane a way as anyones way.

IMO, this just adds to the importance of \"voodoing\" a bit with the numbers when using them as a handicapper, to ensure that one really are making bets that reflects one\'s own opinion.

[TGJB]

You don\'t use the horses that ran on a dead rail to make figures. That position and the one below are not in conflict.

[Furious Pete]

Okay, thanks for clearing that up for me.

[hellersorr]

Speaking of identical rides, compare Rajiv Maragh\'s move out of the gate in the very wet 2011 Belmont to his move out of the gate in the very wet 2017 Kentucky Derby.

Interestingly, trainer Graham Motion\'s horse was sinned against in the former but committed the sin in the latter.

(Hmmm.  Perhaps Motion felt it was better to have Maragh for \'im than agin \'im.)

[Furious Pete]

\"The best case for it being there could probably be made for the first three or four races on friday, but even that takes a bit of handicapping to get to. If so, one would have to have Elate running a huge new top (in effect), but that is completely plausible. If Street Bizz was running against a \"golden rail\", she too ran a race better than any of her previous - again it\'s plausible. And Dancing All Night ran a absolute huge race in her racing debut. My gut feeling is that this might\'ve been the case and that the rail was very good in those first three or four races on friday, but then it seems pretty fair from there, IF relying on the figures (and shouldn\'t we?).\"

---------

How have the \"ran-against-a-golden-rail\" horses outside of those first 3 or 4 (dirt)races mentioned been running so far coming back, anyone following it up?

Elate just won very easily, suggesting she indeed ran a new top last time out and perhaps paired that up now (all though it won\'t read like that on the sheet). And Dancing All Night did run huge, came back a very good winner.