freak

[big ant]

What did SJ get for a figure today , he had to at least run his top.I thought the fact that Servis didn\'t work him out sincw the Derby was a negative, but this horse does nothing but run and he cost me a nice pick 4.BTW can someone tell me what Smith was doing.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Its Rion Heart...he goes wide and Pimlico lacks banking.

Those consistent fractions Smarty throws really get significant in the end.

The original fast number for smarty looks better all the time.

I\'m still trying to find out who got fourth...lol Dang service went down.



Post Edited (05-15-04 18:55)

[Florida Phil]

Smith rides like a piece of crap.  He was three and four wide the entire way and cost the Lion any chance to get in the money.  Why they allow this putz to ride this horse is beyond me.  He is horrible!!  But boy, did Thorograph have a terrific day at Pimlico........terrific!!

[Saddlecloth]

  Smith just explained what happens if he puts him down on the rail, the horse runs off.  Why not give him credit for getting him to NOT run off in his career, its clear the horse is a speed merchant.

Then there is the fact that he race rode Smarty, his top rivel, Smarty lost more ground than Lion Heart and won by 11.  What is your excuse for that?

I read so much about Smiths ground loss, but if its so important than how do you win 4400 races or so and about 120 grade 1 races, just luck I guess.

But I defer to your expertise in judging how a horse should be ridden and the importance of ground loss.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I had a miserable day (cashed nothing) until the Preakness...i\'m pretty sure I have the Tri and Super but I have to check my wagers and Xpress bet is down...lol

[Florida Phil]

When the Lion gets another rider the proof will be in the results.  The diatance may be too much for him, but I don\'t believe a single word Smith says.  He is afraid to be on the rail.  Period.

[kev]

Lion got 4th  edd3rd

[Florida Phil]

7-10-9-1  with a Super Pay of 461.40.....and I cashed galore all day EXCEPT for the Preakness because Smith rode as he did to miss 3rd.......cost me big time!

[TGJB]

In terms of the actual picks I made in the analysis, I gave them the $24.80 horse, but nothing else that won-- I had the top horse in a lot of races, but didn\'t fill the exotics. For myself, I was live for $30 on the pick 4 with LH, $10 each with 5 other horses, none of whose initials are SJ. If I had known it was paying $1500...

I\'m glad it wasn\'t close, it would have been tough to sleep tonight.

On Smith-- most of his success came before he got hurt, when he was more willing to come through inside. He went to SoCal, where it\'s not an issue-- small fields, everybody\'s making money, nobody comes through inside.

[Saddlecloth]

So let me follow this, Lion Heart, and obvious unrateble horse who was never supposed to get the distance, ran second and fourth to a superhorse, and you are saying the jock cost the horse the wins?

Do you have any other handicapping insights?

[Saddlecloth]

Just FYI, since he has moved to socal, smith has won 16 grade 1 races and over 30 stakes, guided three horse to eclipes races and won at 17%.

If that is shitty riding, I will take it all day long.

I guess if he rode like everyone here thinks he would be at 25%.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Jerry, I want to know when you get on Smarty cause thats when I\'m jumping off.

Seriously, you take some bold stands.

Third straight year I\'ve had the Derby and Preakness Winner. Can this guy win the Belmont. The new shooters were totally outmatched. Is there someone still on the bench I\'ve forgotten?

I gotta see the charts.



Post Edited (05-15-04 19:37)

[TGJB]

Yeah, well--- the thinking may have been flawed, and not because of the result. My thinking was that he had a good chance to blow up, which is a good reason to get leverage by throwing him out of exotics , but I still made him 40% to win, as I said in the analysis. What really is annoying is that the pick 4 was 40% of that with LH, who was what, 10 times the price? Nuts.

[Kingfisher]

Phil-

So what happened to the Smarty bouncing with confidence theory?

Glad you came aboard, sorry you missed the super. I was on the 7-10-1 tri pretty big, and luckily after yesterday\'s racing was wondering if Lion Heart could hang on, so I saved with some nice supers with Eddington in the third slot. All in all, its been a great Derby and Preakness.

And thanks to Jerry for the ongoing discussions about ground loss and jockey paths, all of which came into play today.

Time to sit and watch history being made at the Belmont. Smarty got his tune-up after all.

Now if only Dynever and Ole Faunty had decided to show up......



Post Edited (05-15-04 21:12)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

You guys are better critical thinkers than I am....i try and spot a good horse...lol

He\'s good. I\'ve known he\'s good ever since the Rebel. I suspected he was good on the Southwest. Really theres no value now unless ur trying to hit tris or supers.

When he won that Rebel like he did I posted here saying that one day a horse would come along to earn a local track and triple crown bonus and smash the earnings record. I was implying this horse..lol Though I understand you\'re betting strategy.....my problem is I get hooked some of these horses despite knowing you can\'t do that...lol

I thought Smith ran a good race. He forced Smarty Wide and he stayed off the rail and I\'m not sure the rail the place to be. He just didn\'t have enough horse. I really don\'t think Smith cost the horse, though you could argue it cost him third.

Five horses? in ur pick 4?  Lion Heart, Rock Hard Ten, Imperialism, Eddington, Borrego, whose the Fifth? other one in the 10 buck pick 4?

I extrapolate Smarty\'s closing quarter to 24.75 in hand which is faster again than his penultimate fraction.  This is horse is very good.  His sire had that world record mile and this guy can go a little further. the only thing that will stop him in Three weeks is circumstances. He\'s by far the best three year old at this point.



Post Edited (05-15-04 19:56)