freak

[Saddlecloth]

Maybe this helps

Jockey Mike Smith: \"My horse struggled from the word go. He kept trying to get out. I stayed after him and kept him in as best I could, but Smarty Jones was just amazing today.\"

But since we have read here from all the people who must know him, he is a liar so take it for what its worth.

[miff]

With the dirt track playing app 2 seconds slower than normal for all dirt races run, I would have to believe that with 126 lbs and a wide trip in the first turn, SJ ran a new top.

[TGJB]

Bccassidy-- If you take that position, SJ ran no better beating the Preakness field by 11 than he did winning the Derby by 3-- unlikely, even leaving aside all the factors I look at when coming up with figures.

Taking a fast look at the day (I\'m a couple of days from doing it), you\'ve got a group of horses a length apart who run in the 1 1/2 to 2 range, and if they did so here SJ ran back to his Rebel #. This also looks like it fits withe Schaeffer, but as I said, I haven\'t done the work yet.

CTC-- you are probably not going to see those track records, and not because SJ isn\'t good enough. Right now he has run 4 figures which are better than those run by anyone else of his crop, which is unheard of, and is by far the best 3yo since we\'ve been making figures, and realistically by far the best of all time, but since I wasn\'t making figures before that I can\'t say so definitively. Before anyone starts invoking Secretariat\'s Belmont, read the \"Are Racehorses Getting Faster\" stuff in the archives here to see how much slower the sandboxes-- I mean tracks-- are now.

[big ant]

Mike Smith isn\'t likely to admit he ran a poor race on national T.V. He isn\'t honest enough to say that he\'s lost his nerve, so of course he\'ll blame the horse.

[Florida Phil]

Saddlecloth...read carefully.  

I said \"...to get in the money.\"  I did not say WIN.

I was just pissed because I had nice trifectas with Lion in 2nd and 3rd.  Say what you will to defend Smith...it was his very typical wide ride AGAIN.

Are you related to this stiff?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Jerry,

I\'ll defer to your overall acumen on track consistency in the new millineum.

I thought Smarty would explode once he got off the slop. I really don\'t think he\'s quite as good on it. He\'s good on it. Very Good, but on dry tracks he goes into the most impressive late race enery conservation I think i\'ve seen. Easy Goer was capable of explosive fractions and split runs, but theres not been a more efficient energy machine that I\'ve seen than Smarty. That said the 12 mark issue is significant for many horses...but i\'ve seen no indication it should be a problem. I\'m more concerned about the Big Sandy itself. Sunday Silence was very efficient but Smarty\'s late efficiency is outdoing Sunday on dry surfaces. I knew that.

I also completely agree with you\'re figures for the Derby. I don\'t think theres any doubt about them. They say \"close enough for government work\".  Well thats good enough in Iraq, but your work is substantially better than that. I think I understand it. I could never duplicate it, but I love both the science and reality of it.

Everyone knew Rock Hard was a good horse he beat Imperialism in the Santa Anita Derby. I thought two horses had a chance for second: Rock Hard and Lion Heart and in all candor....i utilized you\'re figures on this. I rejected everything else. Your figures have held up magnificently for this triple crown and the recent preps...anyone considering them and knowing how to handicap should be sitting on full pockets.

[miff]

I TAKE IT YOU ARE NOT A TRUE \'DOGMATIC\' SHEET THEORIST(NOR AM I).I HANG WITH MANY SHARP SHEET READERS,RAGS AND TG AND ALMOST EVERY ONE OF THEM TOSSED SJ IN THE DERBY AND PREAKNESS.I HEAR MOST OF THEM STILL TALKING THAT SJ WILL EVENTUALLY X (WOW WHAT BRILLIANCE). MAYBE AN 0-3-X WILL BE DISCOVERED, EVEN 0-4-X.YOU NEVER KNOW WITH THESE GUYS.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'ve learned more about the bounce from Jerry and T-Graph since I came to find this site. Even Jerry will tell you that the bounce just isn\'t as prevalant with developing horses. You can get massive regression and unsoundness but thats something else.

Its also a tool for goin after a favorite and I understand that, but I also do take short prices on horses when i think they are deserving of short price. How difficult was it to factor that Preakness Super on Jerry\'s numbers?  The only horse that didn\'t really run its race was Imperialism and he inexplicably altered his pace style. Lion caught a heavier track and he faded a bit more and he figured to.

I truly believe smarty could have run a 1:54 and change on that track if asked

CtC



Post Edited (05-16-04 18:11)

[asfufh]

The reason the pic4 with Smarty(3-5) paid $1500 versus the possible payoff of $3500. for RHT(6-1) is that the majority of the bettors still alive for the 4th leg were sheet players(relatively easy to pick first 3 legs using the sheets) and the sheet players(except for a few of us) figured Smarty for the bounce and left him off their Pic 4 Tickets. So, the value play of the day was SJ in the Pic4!
Thanks, Fellow Sheets Players. ;>) Asfufh

[P-Dub]

I have noticed many bemoaning the fact that LH cost them the tri. If LH was singled in the 3rd spot then don\'t blame Smith. He was beaten by 2 horses that were fresher than he was and that had a number that was competitive. He lost the placing by a head but Eddington had a little trouble also according to the charts...\"EDDINGTON , unhurried for a half while racing well off the rail, gradually gained five wide nearing the far turn, moved inside IMPERIALISM at the three eighths pole, circled five wide advancing into the stretch, altered course between rivals at the three sixteenths pole but failed to threaten while improving his position.\" Here\'s a horse that was also 5 wide and \"altered course between rivals\". What if Eddington ran 4th? Would those that keyed EDD in 3rd be able to blame Bailey for going 5 wide and having to alter course??  If Eddington wasn\'t in the 3rd hole on one of your tickets then is that Smith\'s fault too??  Its too easy to blame defeats on ground loss. If Smith chokes him over to the rail and he runs off or doesn\'t like it and sulks, what then?? Sounds like sour grapes to me.

As for the Pick 4....what a gift to Thorograph players. Thank you TGJB for your consistently outstanding product. I am nothing more than a novice, a weekend player that enjoys the challenge of wagering on these magnificent animals. I buy TG sporadically but regularly check the race of the week and RB Room to get better at reading TG.  How can you not have the P4 using TG?? Royal Assault was a single to me ( Preachin had a bad pattern and gave wt)  , Mr.O\'Brien had the fastest figure in the field which he just ran, Gators and Bears has been running big races regularly (multiple negs), and of course SJ. I too got burnt by Smarty in the Derby but he wasn\'t going to do it to me again (I saved with RHT, Song, and Edd). If only they were all like this.  

I don\'t mean to gloat or sound like I am a great handicapper ( I\'ve stumbled out of the track many times wondering why I do this after a day of getting my butt kicked). But TG really clicked at Pimlico on Saturday. Congrats to all TG players and again thanks to JB. Your product is second to none.

Sorry about the multiple posts, hit post instead of preview.



Post Edited (05-17-04 20:20)