Travers

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

That aint a horse....t graph was wrong about him

Theres no reason to believe a 2:02:76 with a last quarter in 26:48 is a negative 5, but similar to Wood day, there is no proximate 2 turn race to triangulate the event. It was a legit Saratoga time, but both Roman Ruler and Flower Alley looked more prone to regress than anything.

Bellamania had it all his own way and gave it up in the last furlong that plagued him in the Derby. Roman Ruler chucked it in late as well. Bellamania didn\'t relax early either, but he doesn\'t appear to be the rateable type. He is also still one of the most awkward movers I\'ve ever seen. Zito got a big one out of Commentary, maybe he can spot this guy on the right day. One thing you have to be certain of, hes not gonna run Commentator and this one together in the same race. Still have to think its gonna require an uncontested lead to get this one up at 9 marks.

[marcus]

IT LOOKED LIKE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE IF THE HORSE CAN RUN HIS RACE FRESH , ETC . THAT WAS QUESTION #1 AND THE RACE IN A HANDICAPPING CONTEXT .

CTC,

There was nothing surprising about this race. BR ran very well, but he came up a tad short in the last 1/8 just like most Grade 1 layoffs do when they are tackled by a horse of similar ability that has an edge in conditioning.

I don\'t think this race says anything about the Wood figure other than it was earned under ideal conditions - a loose lead, a track that was kind to speed, no one in the race of high enough quality to challenge him like FA did. They all do their fastest running when everything is perfect.  

FA ran a terrific race and got a perfect ride. I guess 10F is well within his range and Pletcher is rolling again. Other than Ashado, he had a very good week.  

I agree with one thing. Zito would be crazy to run BR against Commentator. They would almost certainly compromise each other\'s chances.




   

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Flower Alley looked better than Roman Ruler on the basis of the Dwyer. Monmouth favors speed and it wasn\'t a shock that Roman Ruler just wore down Sun King there. Those two are good milers.

Lets be real here though. The whole issue pertains to a LIGHTNING quick track on April 9th and an inability to triangulate Bellamania\'s effort with another representative two turn race. Do you really think Don Six, Medallist and Forest Danger all equaled the six mark Aqueduct track record on the same day without a blistering surface? Never mind Foggy, I still think he\'s gonna get his hat handed to him as soon as he moves up out of the 3YO\'s. Anyway without the ability to use a variant, many figure makers were left with extrapolation from previous efforts. Survivalist had run a 4 in his Gotham Mile, so Tgraph assigned him a 4 for the Wood, based upon probabilities he probably repeated. This despite the impression he wants no real part of two turns, which was subsquently born out. Once that was done the beaten lengths equated to -5 for Bellamania. All along some said WAIT A MINUTE there. You can look at the Wood field and its clear many flat out collapsed in that race. Scrappy T nearly dead heated for the place with a slipped saddle his trainer thought cost him as much as 10 lengths. Why couldn\'t Bellamania have run a Negative 1 on that track? Oh, because he ran it in 1:47 and tied Riva Ridge\'s track record right? No, because that would have given Survivalist an 8 and he couldn\'t have run an 8 trying two turns for the first time right?

If some think Bellamania lost because he wasn\'t tight, all I can say is back him at 10 marks next time. Suburban or Jockey Club Gold Cup. He\'s a competent -1 horse and thats what he was. He ran into a -2 horse is all and he ain\'t got the gas to get by that kind of speed.

[spa]

Chuckles...he was short....this is a really nice colt.

[davidrex]

     B.R. looked like hes\' going to dominate all come cup day.
     Rare is it when I see such a presence on the track vieing against the best in his age bracket

PARTYpokerON!

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Doubt he was short. Zito\'s new format is ready to pop with the career top. Just review his results from the last year. This horse was greased for a big time effort. Anyone doubting that just scan his p.p.\'s under Zito. Flower Alley has more speed than many gave him credit for, he had Bellamania measured from the outset and was poised to make him pound spastic at the sand any time he wanted. (And Alley though improving, isn\'t among the best of this bunch.) What\'s going to be Bellamania\'s achilles heel is that he wants the lead but he\'s not a world class burner nor a fast accellerator. He\'s too awkward to be. Couldn\'t hold a candle to horses like King Glorious or even Lion Heart for that matter, let alone a Spend a Buck or a Seattle Slew. Its a good thing Alex or a fit Bandini or an on form Greeley\'s Galaxy, or even a ready to run Scrappy T. weren\'t in this one.

I stated after the Withers or Preakness that I would take Scrappy T. in a match race with Bellamania. If they meet again at 10 marks I guarantee Scrappy comes out better upon the head to head.

You gotta be real careful listening to Zito these days. He\'s a good trainer, but he\'s all about saying glowing things to ingratiate himself with owners. The Boss makes management decisions quickly. Don\'t think for a moment Nicky isn\'t factoring business. You also gotta be real careful about blindly accepting a  contestable number on its face.

I dont think hes a 10 mark horse. The results make that pretty clear. Beaten soundly at that distance when he couldn\'t employ his favored running style and then getting it all his own way in a weak 10 mark bunch and having the laurels snatched from him by a horse that had him measured the whole way and who himself was unlikely to be peak form and stretching at the distance.

Anyway I\'m done talking about him. I know where he stands. Hes a 10 mark money burner. If the entrants favor him he could earn Grade I at 9 marks, but Flower Alley is gonna beat him at that distance too.

I consider this matter closed.

[spa]

Chuckles...he was short......

CTC,

I\'ve understood your argument about the Wood figure since the beginning. I think it\'s pretty pointless to debate that aspect of it because we\'ll never know. The very fact that those that gave him a super fast number are still confident says as much.

The part that I think is worthy of debate is whether a -5 (or a -3, or a -1..) earned with a loose lead on a track that was kind to speed against Grade 3 animals is equal to wire to wire win with pressure from another Grade 1 animal on an honest track.
 

[Silver Charm]

Certainly the former in your equation is a potential bet against while the latter most likely is not. Assuming the horse is not running back to quickly. So having said that there is a diffference.

Bellamy Road ran VERY WELL yesterday and when challenged fought back gamely. So if you are looking for any clues how he may handle the latter if and when that scenario arises.

If you had your eyes open. You got it...........

[shanahan]

I\'m making futures for the BC on Bellamy...without any hesitation.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

classhandicapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CTC,
>
> The part that I think is worthy of debate is
> whether a -5 (or a -3, or a -1..) earned with a
> loose lead on a track that was kind to speed
> against Grade 3 animals is equal to wire to wire
> win with pressure from another Grade 1 animal on
> an honest track.

Agreed the conditions were not likely to favor the same open length victory. The issue in the long run though has to be the reliability of the figure. Is the horse truly capable of the speed assigned in the figure? Do you really think a front end horse that gets hooked with 3 marks to go is gonna run slower than one that cruises those last 3 marks due to his rivals coming unglued and their equipment coming undue?

On the numbers some actually anticipated Flower Alley getting buried by five lengths or more. People bet money on it and barring form going south, that just wasn\'t ever going to happen, even with the tactical advantage. Next time, don\'t be surprised if Flower Alley wins by more due to a change in the tactical conditions. I think Alley has shown more. Distorted Humor is not a bad sire, Funny Cide, Commentator. Who really thought he was less likely to get the distance, especially on the Jim Dandy? They are relatively closely matched animals and the tactical considerations prevented me from betting the race. Bounce possibility negated a perfecta with them as well.

I hope TGJB has a season to Distorted Humor. If he does, he\'s in the catbirds seat.

[Silver Charm]

Don\'t underestimate the savvy ride by Johnny V. They went and got their position down the backstretch then as Bellamy began to move they briefly let him go on. Watch the tape again he maybe spotted him another length. He didn\'t allow what you are talking about to happen where he chased a much faster pace than normal and came unglued but he didn\'t let the pacesetter get too far away.

When he made his move it was aggresive.

Flower Alley has shown more.

TGJB\'s share in Distorted Humor just went up. They will probably move the fee to $100,000 which over the next ten years means he will gross a cool MILLION $$$$.

[bdhsheets]

Be careful with that futures play, chief.

Commentator has tossed back to back -5\'s [whether he wants another eighth is debatable]. Two Zito shhpeedballs trucking together on the front end together in the BC??? Neither has shown an inclination to rate. And good ol\' St. Liam has run two -6\'s and lost both heats!!!

Historically, 3yo\'s running big neg numbers rarely, if ever, return to them. Many suffer injuries [look at the group that went in the Derby] even Afleet Alex is laid up [luckily they caught the hairline fracture before he broke down].

Older horses often can\'t handle the extra stress either. Mineshaft, Ghostzapper and Roses in May quickly come to mind. They can only put up the huge numbers a few times and that\'s it. The only real exception has been Perfect Drift who keeps plugging along, while not racing as fast.