ROTW

HP,

I am less willing to read patterns to the same extent as many TG players (and certainly WAY LESS than the Rags) because I routinely believe that various aspects of a horse\'s trip that are not included in the figures account for some of the fluctuations in the figures.

That\'s why I tend to not get too involved in pattern discussions. I am seeing very different form patterns/cycles because I am not just looking at the raw figures.

I do agree that fillies tend to be more volatile in their performances, but I find it curious that at first you were arguing that HOF was a toss because she was too slow and now she\'s a toss because she ran too fast.

Had I said I thought she ran an adjusted 3 last time out on her way back to another 1, there would be another reason to disagree.

I think the one thing we can agree on is that if I have something to say around here, people will look for a way to disagree.



Post Edited (06-06-05 10:09)

[jimbo66]

Class,

\"I think the one thing we can agree on is that if I have something to say around here, people will look for a way to disagree.\"

Probably a true statement, although I never understood why you get more heat than another poster who has been conspicuously absent for 4 or 5 days.  

I was with you on House of Fortune and we went down.  But your \"post-race\" comments are some of what is giving you heat.  A lot of people on this board handicap the races and post opinions.  When wrong, we ACCEPT we were wrong and maybe learn from it.  In hindsight, House of Fortune was a bad bet.  Not just because she lost, but she was off form and you/I continued to give her excuses for that form.  I still think our bet was a better bet than Star Parade considering that filly is ALSO off form and ran a clunker for 3rd, at shorter odds.   But the Star Parade backers are not here posting after the race what a great bet she was.  

I think the lesson here was to look extra hard at improving horses, at the right price.  Yes, Andujar was only coming in off a \"5\" and was a few points too slow to win, but considering the \"5\" was her first race on the dirt, she was first time O\'Neill, and was well-bred for the dirt, 7-1 was a good gamble, especially if you didn\'t like Star Parade or Hollywood Story.  Alpabet Kisses at 3-1 was a complete toss and the worst bet in the race, if you use Thorograph.  She was slow and figured to have much less upside than Andujar.

Certain horses are \"sucker horses\" for most gamblers.  We bet them a few times and then have trouble getting off of them, for me House of Fortune is one of them.  I think Saturday, I finally got off.  So make sure the rest of you bet her back next time, she is sure to pop at long odds!!

[HP]

Class,

I re-read my posts.

I never said she was a toss because she was too slow.  I said she never got back to her top from last year.  She obviously was fast enough, on her BEST, to win this race.  

I later said IF YOU (emphasis on YOU) were giving her extra credit for running better last out than the figure showed, that kind of thing would make her even more of a toss for ME, since that (an \"adjusted\" THREE) would qualify as MORE of an effort than was reflected in the FIVE assigned by TG.  

There is really only ONE disagreement that I can see here.  You thought she ran better than the FIVE indicated last out.  I don\'t.
I think she ran a FIVE.  Period.  IF you use TG, it seems you only use it as a departure point for your own ideas.  

Nothing I said had anything to do with her being \"too fast\" or \"too slow.\"  It was all about the pattern, and you\'re saying you are seeing different patterns because you are not looking at the raw figures.  

I just pay Jerry for the figures and use them.  

HP

Jimbo,

\"When wrong, we ACCEPT we were wrong and maybe learn from it. In hindsight, House of Fortune was a bad bet.\"

I hear your point clearly.  

I just don\'t think that when my horse runs poorly that that automatically translates into a poor bet when I was accounting for that exact possibility for that very reason in my odds line.

I\'m not sure I learned anything from this race, but I obviously wouldn\'t play HOF off this performance because she was pretty dreadful this time.

I think the discussion went too far because I was trying to explain her prior trip and my thinking about her form coming in. Obviously, I often have a very different view than people that are looking at the figures alone.



Post Edited (06-06-05 18:49)