Oops. I should have wrote fast, not face in the last post. Not sure how a pace could be face but this is what studying 12 hours a day for the bar will do to you...

I\'d go further than saying he wasn\'t a Secretariat, Smarty is a nice horse but unless you think Birdstone is Victory Gallop or Touch Gold, I\'d say Smarty is no Real Quiet or Silver Charm, either.

I think the difference between the good horses and the great horses isn\'t talent - they both have that - its the ability to adapt and adjust. Smarty still hasn\'t shown he can do that with top notch horses. As easy as this is to say in hindsight, everything just set up perfect for him in the Derby and the Preakness. Hell, it set up perfect for him today. He just couldn\'t adjust to the distance or the pace (which wasn\'t that face given the times Belmont\'s been throwing off today). My (worthless) opinion is that Smarty is a cut below the best horses of the last 20 years, and several notches below Secretariat, Affirmed and Slew. I trust JB\'s figs, so maybe he is faster (although his final times sure don\'t indicate it), but he certainly isn\'t better.

Birdstone flashed enough at two to think he might be a decent horse. At this point in his career, he compares alomst perfectly with Lemon Drop Kid. It would be nice if he can have the same sort of 4 year old year LDK had.

Well, my vision off the race was pretty much right. Nevertheless, I still managed to go 4 deep in the Pick 4 (without Smarty) and didn\'t use Birdstone...It\'s a shame for racing but it wasn\'t meant to be...

I\'m sure the ground loss hurt Silver Charm but after watching his Dubai World Cup, I still believe that if he\'d seen Touch Gold flying on the outside, he would have found another gear and held on anyway.

While we\'re on the subject, if a Hall of Famer like Gary Stevens can get thrown off his game going for the Crown (not to mention Antley on Charismatic, Desormeaux on Real Quiet or Espinoza on War Emblem), any reason to think that Stewart Elliot won\'t? It is, apparently, his only mount on the card...

I agree Holy, my point was that if SJ did have to duel with Free House and then hold off Touch Gold, I doubt we\'d be talking about him going for the Triple Crown. Silver Charm did that and still, IMHO, would have won the Belmont if Chris McCarron weren\'t the best money rider of his time. That, was a perfect ride.

I\'ve been enjoying everyone else\'s thoughts on the Belmont and I thought I\'d weigh in with my own highly-unimpressive take. Hell, it beats studying for the bar. I\'ll be the first to admit that I\'m not the horse player I was pre-law school when I firmly believed my opinions were among the best out there, at least until I went to the track and had them shattered on a daily basis. Now, I rarely need to wait for the actual race to realize my opinion is probably wrong. Nevertheless, here goes.

The first thought I have is really more about Lion Heart than SJ. LH reminds me so much of Peace Rules. And just like PR, SJ didn\'t so much put him away in the Preakness as LH either just collapsed or suffered a physical injury (there may have been news on this, but I missed it if there was).  But, overall, LH was always just a sprinter/miler with a big heart. He has been showing all year he didn\'t want to go 2 turns and the Derby (at least in retrospect) seems to have been more about the tracks surface and his heart than his stamina.  So, given that LH was SJ\'s main competition in the Preakness, the fact that he was a stretched-out sprinter who pulled a Sham-style collapse takes something away from the big margin of victory. JB gave him another big top, and I trust his figs, but I still am not sure that the Preakness was quite as impressive as it seemed.

Now that I have compared LH to PR, it seems only fair that I say that SJ is obviously not Funny Cide, nor is Purge Empire Maker. Most importantly, unlike that idiotic ride Santos gave FC in the Preakness, Elliot really seemed to wrap up SJ the final 16th and Servis has resisted the temptation to blow SJ out in 46 or whatever brilliant move Barclay did last year. So, SJ deserves to be the overwhelming favorite. Hell, I can\'t possibly imagine any of these challengers beating him on their best day.  But unlike all the experts whose opinion I respect more than my own, I just have this vision in my head. I just can see SJ hitting the top of the stretch with the lead when he starts staggering and some nobody horse (Eddington???) comes galloping up alongside him and nails him late. Maybe its just the product of having been on this planet 26 years now and not having seen a 3crown winner since I was all of about 5 months old, but I just see the 1 1/2 getting to him. Yes, I know that everyone will say he has proved his pedigree didn\'t matter the way he won the first two legs but we all know the Derby was a seriously speed favoring track, and the Preakness, well, it just reminds me of Favorite Trick\'s BC Juvenile (when Grand Slam had the back of his leg ripped off) when it looked FT would run all day long. I think people are being a little cavalier about this stretchout -- I mean, it is a friggin\' 1/4 mile longer than he has ever run before. Horses who look like they won\'t stop at a mile sure can stop in a hurry at 1 1/4 (see Favorite Trick, etc.).  

Anyway, if you actually read through all that thanks for putting up with my ramblings. I hope Smarty proves me wrong, the sport could sure use it, but I still belive Silver Charm was a better horse and if he couldn\'t get it done...

I think Imperialism is this year\'s Impeachment (the name\'s are even close now that I type this out...) He could fly late for a piece in the Preakness, especially if more horses go out for the lead.  But, he\'ll ultimately be overbet at Belmont, as Beyer points out, deep closers who seem to run out of stretch always are bet hard at BEL, and he\'ll finish off the board(unless he\'s Victory Gallop, which he isn\'t -- but even VG got beat at PIM).  

I think the quinella at Pimlico will be the same as in the Derby, I just might flip the exacta.  The last closer I can remember who was bet at the Preakness off a troubled trip in the Derby was Dollar Bill and I think he ran off the board again (PG - AP Val - Congaree, no?)...I expect a 4th of 5th place finish would be about Imperialism\'s ceiling too, although maybe he could clunk along for third.  

If you want a bomber for PIM, go with history and play the local star, in this case, I guess thats Water Cannon.  I\'d never heard of him til I saw him on the contenders list at DRF, and he looks a cut below the rest, but those local boys always seem to show up and get a piece...

I\'m curious what JB and others think about the whole slow final quarter thing.  The thing that gets me is that looking solely at the fractions, Lion Heart looks like he went out fast (22 4/5) and quit.  Looking at the chart (or the video) tells a different story, he appeared to dig in and pull away from everyone but Imperialism.  Is this an argument for split variants? Was the track literally quicker around the first turn, where Lion Heart blazed a pretty quick time.  I guess I have a problem with that because so much of the first 1/4 mile of the race is in the same homestretch where Lion Heart and Smarty Jones plodded home, at least according to the stop watch.  But, if we assume the track was just slow, did Lion Heart go out in the equivalent of a 21 and change opening quarter?  I have some trouble believing he could do that and still be around for such a strong stretch run.  That leaves me believing that the track was not unusually slow and the field just did not finish strong.  I guess I would tend to believe the race collapsed.  I\'ll be interested to see the numbers.

First of all, just want to say its been a year or two since my last post and I\'ve missed this board. Law School ended up taking up a bit more time than I\'d hoped for...

Re the Malibu:

1. Midas Eyes -- What strikes me most about the pattern is that he seems to be going good race - bad race with both the good and bad races regressing as the year has gone on. Off a (sub-par) good race, I\'d expect an especially poor performance -- maybe not another 5, but that certainly seems to be in the realm of belief.

2. Baltic Heights -- Love this horse. Huge move last time with blinkers off and has had plenty of time to develop since then. Got a feeling Harty has this one sitting on go.

3. Watchem Smokey -- Doesn\'t seem to be improving but is consistent and thus an obvious toss-in on the bottom of exotics.

4. Blazonry -- Didn\'t fire his best shot off the last layoff and it isn\'t Walsh\'s speciality. Still respect any horse who can toss a 0 at 7 furlongs. Gotta use if you\'re spreading.

5. Marino Marini -- Tough to toss anything O\'Neill leads over these days and gotta think the Storm Cat (and Waquoit) offspring prefer dirt to turf but he seems a little too slow regardless.

6. Domestic Dispute -- Possibly the worst purchase in the history of horse racing. When Baffert gives up on a Derby prospect, you can book it being done. Unfortunately, that purchaser is the dad of a friend so I\'ll be cheering if he wins, but I won\'t have a dime on him. Easy toss.

7. Buddy Gil -- Never fully bought into this horse and have lost plenty of money taking a stand against him. No reason to stop now, though I\'ve been wrong more than I\'ve been right with him. Just a note, Mullins is clearly great but his last Derby horse, Lusty Latin, has not been the same since returning from a layoff. Remains to be seen if the lifelong claiming trainer can really maintain a G1 quality animal over an extended campaign.

8. Eye of the Tiger -- Gotta use him underneath if you\'re using Watchem Smokey. As far as I can tell, they\'re the same horse.

9. Special Rate -- Maybe Bobby thinks he can pull another Mizzen Mast going turf-to-dirt with this one. If he does, I\'ll tip my cap but I can\'t play him with his numbers.

10. Posse -- Fairly consistent all year and then popped a big one in the slop. He hasn\'t run over his pre-existing tops in the slop before so the improvement could be real. On the other hand, it might cause a fairly big bounce if it is real improvement and not just preference for the slop. Gut feeling is that he won\'t repeat but still has to be used for a piece.

11. Southern Image -- Don\'t see this horse improving til he can put together two races in a row. Also don\'t like the habit of getting off slowly -- that could cause real problems in a field this size. Maybe in the bottom rung of the super.

12. Toccet -- Another one I\'ve never liked. On the other hand, tossing the BC race, it looks like he 0-2-X\'ed and then came back with a pair of tops. His races are sure clumping up but that when he did his best running last year. Nevertheles, tough to back with confidence on the ship and coming back for third time in 6 weeks.

13. Zavata -- Hasn\'t shown much affinity for this strip and Biancone, who is 0-17 with blinks-on, putting on the hood today smacks of desperation. Talented enough on his best day but that seems to come about once a year and its already happened this year. Gotta take a stand against.

So Harn has pleaded guilty and apparently, this was just a couple of friends ripping off the BC and not the wider conspiracy some had speculated it would be. Honestly, as an ex-fraternity boy muself, this doesn\'t come as a big suprise. I heard lots of similar talk during my fraternity days (and we had more than a few people in my house with ties to horse racing) and there are a couple of guys who probably were of the charachter that if they\'d had Harn\'s access, they would have done the same thing. I like to think my friends might have been smart enough to go two deep in a couple of the first four legs just to be a little less obvious, but who knows. Personally, I think it\'s a dead issue, but out of curiousity, had anyone changed their pick-6 playing because of this and does Harn\'s admission make you more/less likely to go back to playing it as you used to?

JB, helluva job on thr ROTW yesterday. I just played Rock Opera and Johar over the other 3 horses you gave a chance (Ines, Man, and Mountain Rage) in the Superfecta and had a nice day. Probably should have put a bit more faith in the Quinella but I had this vision of Inesperado getting his nose between them.
On the Classic front, why is Momentum getting ignored? He runs the fastest numbers, his last race wasn\'t bad (PP will not run that race again) and he has consistently beat Mil. Brew. I\'ve been crazy busy lately but last I heard Dollase was still going. Seems like it\'s between him, Came Home and maybe Hawk Wing since the Euros keep coming up better thanwe expect.

You raise some good points, the only thing I would say about Unbridled is that he is a very unique sire. This is for a few reason:
1) He foals seem to be either a Grade 1 stakes or bottom level claimers. You either get it all or nothing.
2) Though he is usually a late developing sire, he also gets precocious horses who peak early like Unbridled Song and Anees who both won the BC Juvenile and were non-factors as three year olds.

Basically, Unbridled is like the D. Wayne Lukas of sires. He certainly gets a lot of nice horses, but no one talks about the huge number of bums he gets or the huge ratio of foals that never make it to the track. Also like Wayne, when they get going good, they\'re tough to beat. So while I use the TG sire numbers a lot, I think Unbridled is an example of a sire whose is so unpredictable that they\'re not that valuable.

Another factor to consider is that classier sires tend to be bred to classier mares which has two results:
1) Typically owners who have just spent a small fortune buying these well bred horses don\'t want to see them break down first out and hence, they don\'t get wound up at quite as young an age
2) Since a majority of the most prestigious races are around two turns, the horses with the classiest pedigrees tend to develop later and have a bit more stamina.

Anyway, all this is a long way of saying that I would rather have a 2yo Unbridled who could run a 7 then a Sea Hero, even ignoring the residual value factor. Whether Santa Catarina is for real is another question. I think I\'ll play Ionia and Mac Melody and back-up with Santa Catarina but I\'m going light in the race. Thanks for your points, it\'s always nice to have an intelligent, well-thought out discussion on this board.

I have to respectfully disagree with your pedigree analysis. You really can\'t draw comparisons based on the race record of the sire; if you could Lil E Tee would be a better sire than Mr. Prospector. Pedigree of the sire wins out in the breeding shed which is why a horse like Silver Charm stands for much less than Coronado\'s Quest. However, in this case, we can actually just look at the sires record. Unbridled was a truly elite sire (Grindstone, Unbridled Song, Manistique, etc.) whereas Sea Hero failed and was sold to interests who currently stand him in Turkey. The only \"big horse\" he got was Desert Hero, who got that reputation based on one big race (beating a field which didn\'t turn out to be to spectacular) and never really repeated it before succumbing to EPM. Santa Catarina is not out of stakes winner but she is out of a Storm Cat mare whereas Sea Jewels out of a Stop The Music mare which isn\'t bad but isn\'t great. Again, pedigree beats race record. The bottom line: Sea Jewel has a nice pedigree, Santa Catarina has a huge pedigree. I think she\'ll be tough to beat but I think Mac Melody deserves some consideration just cause Hess is very good with his first out Europeans and I don\'t know how much SC beat last time. She got beat pretty good by Voodoo\'s Sister who is a nice filly for Nick Canani but who got beat bad by Buffy last time (both fillies had excuses, Voodoo stumbled and SC was steadied) but I still think SC has to prove she belongs in this class. Good luck.

It\'s all apparently a hoax. Mulhall says he never heard anything about it and they\'re not donating the horse. Question: the Saudi royal family is spending tons of money putting these commercials on racing shows (at least in Los Angeles) trying to rebuild their image post-9/11. Why are they costing themselves so much in PR by not splitting the Derby bonus as if they needed it even though I agree with their position legally, and why not donate this horse who doesn\'t look like he has much left besides a stud career (which won\'t be too much with his pedigree)? In any event, no strike! Play ball!

What do you think about the chance of Came Home getting back to the zero tomorrow? He seems to be circling and it seems unclear if he has another down race or if he goes back to the top tomorrow. He did move forward the last time he went from 1 1/8 to 1 1/4, although everyone still seems to think he\'s got distance limitations. Otherwise, pretty much looks like Momentum or Sky Jack if he can weather the storm, eh?