Just thinking out loud...

[Dan]

I\'ve been enjoying everyone else\'s thoughts on the Belmont and I thought I\'d weigh in with my own highly-unimpressive take. Hell, it beats studying for the bar. I\'ll be the first to admit that I\'m not the horse player I was pre-law school when I firmly believed my opinions were among the best out there, at least until I went to the track and had them shattered on a daily basis. Now, I rarely need to wait for the actual race to realize my opinion is probably wrong. Nevertheless, here goes.

The first thought I have is really more about Lion Heart than SJ. LH reminds me so much of Peace Rules. And just like PR, SJ didn\'t so much put him away in the Preakness as LH either just collapsed or suffered a physical injury (there may have been news on this, but I missed it if there was).  But, overall, LH was always just a sprinter/miler with a big heart. He has been showing all year he didn\'t want to go 2 turns and the Derby (at least in retrospect) seems to have been more about the tracks surface and his heart than his stamina.  So, given that LH was SJ\'s main competition in the Preakness, the fact that he was a stretched-out sprinter who pulled a Sham-style collapse takes something away from the big margin of victory. JB gave him another big top, and I trust his figs, but I still am not sure that the Preakness was quite as impressive as it seemed.

Now that I have compared LH to PR, it seems only fair that I say that SJ is obviously not Funny Cide, nor is Purge Empire Maker. Most importantly, unlike that idiotic ride Santos gave FC in the Preakness, Elliot really seemed to wrap up SJ the final 16th and Servis has resisted the temptation to blow SJ out in 46 or whatever brilliant move Barclay did last year. So, SJ deserves to be the overwhelming favorite. Hell, I can\'t possibly imagine any of these challengers beating him on their best day.  But unlike all the experts whose opinion I respect more than my own, I just have this vision in my head. I just can see SJ hitting the top of the stretch with the lead when he starts staggering and some nobody horse (Eddington???) comes galloping up alongside him and nails him late. Maybe its just the product of having been on this planet 26 years now and not having seen a 3crown winner since I was all of about 5 months old, but I just see the 1 1/2 getting to him. Yes, I know that everyone will say he has proved his pedigree didn\'t matter the way he won the first two legs but we all know the Derby was a seriously speed favoring track, and the Preakness, well, it just reminds me of Favorite Trick\'s BC Juvenile (when Grand Slam had the back of his leg ripped off) when it looked FT would run all day long. I think people are being a little cavalier about this stretchout -- I mean, it is a friggin\' 1/4 mile longer than he has ever run before. Horses who look like they won\'t stop at a mile sure can stop in a hurry at 1 1/4 (see Favorite Trick, etc.).  

Anyway, if you actually read through all that thanks for putting up with my ramblings. I hope Smarty proves me wrong, the sport could sure use it, but I still belive Silver Charm was a better horse and if he couldn\'t get it done...

[Saddlecloth]

that was a great post, and basically if he does not win it that is what will unfold.

I can see smarty losing this one race at this distance, then never losing again, though southern image and pleasently perfect may have something to say about that.

[Holy55]

Smarty Jones doesn\'t have a Touch Gold or Free House chasing him and Smarty wasn\'t life or death to hold on in the Preakness like Silver Charm.

[Dan]

I agree Holy, my point was that if SJ did have to duel with Free House and then hold off Touch Gold, I doubt we\'d be talking about him going for the Triple Crown. Silver Charm did that and still, IMHO, would have won the Belmont if Chris McCarron weren\'t the best money rider of his time. That, was a perfect ride.

[MO]

Dan,

While I agree that McCarron gave TG a great ride, Steven gave one of the worst rides ever and its all his fault that Silver Charm lost the triple crown!!

Here\'s why: DEAD RAIL - TG drew the rail. (Silver Charm) had already chewed up and spit out Free House, so who\'s the horse to beat? Touch Gold of course. So what does Stevens do? Instead of burying his main rival on the rail (like a truely great rider would do), he goes 6 wide into the 1st turn (like an apprentice). And that ground loss, my friends, made all the difference at the wire.

[Dan]

I\'m sure the ground loss hurt Silver Charm but after watching his Dubai World Cup, I still believe that if he\'d seen Touch Gold flying on the outside, he would have found another gear and held on anyway.

While we\'re on the subject, if a Hall of Famer like Gary Stevens can get thrown off his game going for the Crown (not to mention Antley on Charismatic, Desormeaux on Real Quiet or Espinoza on War Emblem), any reason to think that Stewart Elliot won\'t? It is, apparently, his only mount on the card...

[Dan]

Well, my vision off the race was pretty much right. Nevertheless, I still managed to go 4 deep in the Pick 4 (without Smarty) and didn\'t use Birdstone...It\'s a shame for racing but it wasn\'t meant to be...

[miff]

With a great assist to Over Rated Jerry Bailey for his intentional premature move forcing SJ just enough to get him beat.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Smarty didn\'t rate enough is all. Servis did his best to slow him down and take him off, but I think he moved himself and moved too early. Obviously he wasn\'t a Secretariat. He ran a fast 10 marks and then plodded home.

[Boscar Obarra]

   Don\'t hold your breath waiting for another Secretariat, especially one to run a Belmont of that magnitude.

   SJ was not disgraced at all, and if the very fresh Birdstone doesn\'t fire big, he would have won for fun.

   Tough game.

[Saddlecloth]

I agree, what was Bailey doing?  I would not be happy if I owned that horse.

Smarty will not win at a 1 1/12, fortunately that will never be an issue again.

[miff]

C&C,if you get a chance watch the overrated one send his horse at the 5/8THS forcing SJ to go on.SJ could never go 48 and not be settled, he wasn\'t rank at all.

[Boscar Obarra]

  I have no idea what the # will look like, but SJ ran his race or close to it. The winner came off the bench after non-efforts and just fired nicely is all. What\'s the big deal.

[Dan]

I\'d go further than saying he wasn\'t a Secretariat, Smarty is a nice horse but unless you think Birdstone is Victory Gallop or Touch Gold, I\'d say Smarty is no Real Quiet or Silver Charm, either.

I think the difference between the good horses and the great horses isn\'t talent - they both have that - its the ability to adapt and adjust. Smarty still hasn\'t shown he can do that with top notch horses. As easy as this is to say in hindsight, everything just set up perfect for him in the Derby and the Preakness. Hell, it set up perfect for him today. He just couldn\'t adjust to the distance or the pace (which wasn\'t that face given the times Belmont\'s been throwing off today). My (worthless) opinion is that Smarty is a cut below the best horses of the last 20 years, and several notches below Secretariat, Affirmed and Slew. I trust JB\'s figs, so maybe he is faster (although his final times sure don\'t indicate it), but he certainly isn\'t better.

Birdstone flashed enough at two to think he might be a decent horse. At this point in his career, he compares alomst perfectly with Lemon Drop Kid. It would be nice if he can have the same sort of 4 year old year LDK had.

[Dan]

Oops. I should have wrote fast, not face in the last post. Not sure how a pace could be face but this is what studying 12 hours a day for the bar will do to you...