Miff,

Look, a lot of horses have run wide with heavy impost in G1 company and have lost for doing it, even though they ran the best final-time fig.  And, even if they run back to their big \"wide fig\", they\'ll still lose again if they run wide again, even if they pair their big final-time fig.  

The point is that the best fig does not necessarily mean the best horse AT THE WIRE.  And TGJB has never preached that the top fig horse, even if likely to pair or improve, is necessarily the sure winner.  Indeed, the horse could pair by running wide again and lose again to a slower final-time fig horse taht hugged the rail.

The crucial point you seem to be missing when you mocking JBs figs is that the best TG fig horse of all time is not necessarily the best horse of all time -- and JB has never pretended otherwise.  In fact, we might reasonably expect that the best horse of all time won\'t be the best fig of all time, though he could be.

So, you are mocking TG for giving wide-runners big figs, but your mockery is based on the strawman that TG is saying that the best fig horse is necessarily the best real-world horse, which he is not.

Nevertheless, the TG figs are very useful because big scores are often had when one of these talented wide-running, also-ran closers manages to close into fast pace with \"Red Sea parting along the rail\" kind of trip.  Then, the chronic big-fig loser suddenly becomes a big-fig W.  The trick is predicting when the wide-fig horse (big TG #, weak Beyer #) is going to get a rail trip and a big score.

Sorry folks, I can\'t seem to let this go.  But I promise this is my last post on the topic.  I got out my calculator and things are worse than I thought regarding SJ\'s quarter fractions:

1. 24.50
2. 24.30
3. 22.90 (!) (of course he is cooked now)
4. 23.70
5. 25.10
6. 27.20

I am skeptical of the notion that Elliot would have had to strangle his horse to stay behind Purge and RHT until the quarter pole.  SJ rated the first half and has always rated kindly before.  Even so, Elliot should have checked SJ if he had to to stop that suicidal midrace \"surge.\"

I\'ll go to my grave believing that SJ was robbed of the triple crown my professional incompetance.  Servis should not have given a junk rider the mount even on a great horse in a high-pressure, big-money spot.  But of course, the owner could have moved this horse to a real barn at any time.

JB on SJ!  Great news--I am mailing in my bet on the travers and thinking hard about the BC Classic.

No doubt SJ almost won even with a dubious ride--he is a great talent.  I salute him too.

Finally, looking at the Equibase Chart for SJ\'s approximate quarter fractrions:

24.40
24.40
23.00 (!)
23.30 (!)
25.10
27.00

The notes say that SJ \"surged to the front just after going a half mile.\"  I\'ll say--that\'s what my eyes saw too.

This is not just a tail-wind-on-the-straight-away thing, nor is it a horse not bred to go 12 panels.  Plain and simple, Elliot lost his nerve and punched it way, way early.  Even Secretariat would have been staggering home after such an absurd move.

Let\'s see if SJ\'s connections learned a lesson.

According to the fractions I read from my on-line betting service, SJ rated kindly with the leaders at just 24 secs each for his first two quaters, then quite unecessarily ACCELERATED into the 23s each for his next two quarters, only to collapse in the last half, especially the last quarter.  

In short, given that SJ has proven his ability to rate in general and did so for the first half of this race, the only conclusion I can see is that the jockey just lost his nerve and moved with a mile to go!    

Five million down the drain.  There is a reason that the experienced, big-money trainers choose experienced, big-money jocks.  (Likewise, there is a reason I keep my bets small--I\'m an inexperienced, small-money handicapper).

Jerry,

If my memory serves, Beyers did a retro-calculation of 150 for Secretariat in the Belmont.  That would be what, neg. 10 in TG figs?  But as you point out--150 is conjectural.

MO,

Unless Sir Shackleton mixes things up somehow (??), I gotta believe the Preakness is just a replay of the Derby.

The only value play I see is to put LH over SJ and hope that LH stays closer to the rail and that SJ catches some traffic.

I don\'t think any of the others will be any closer than they were in Louisville.

Chuckles,

1.  Midway is owned by Will Farish, who loves nothing more to win at Keeneland.  Somtimes, I think he would prize a Keeland allowance winner more than a Breeder\'s Cup win.  The point is, Neil Howard points Farrish horses toward Keeneland in a big way.

2.  Sometimes when Keeneland is sloppy, the speed can run away with ridiculously fast times, which explains why Midway was sent to the front.  I don\'t recall him showing much speed before, but Farrish/Howard wanted a win and they knew what was necessary that day.

3.  In the Special, Midway won\'t have a home court advantage nor is he likely to get a slop/speed bias trip against a tougher field.

In sum, as a Keeneland local, I\'d discount Midway not because he ran a big fig but because the fig may have been earned under very favorable circumstances that are not likely to occur again.  [Except at the Fall Keeneland meet this fall :-)]

MO,

No doubt that Lion Heart wasted energy going wide, but Smith probably thought the rail would be espcially \"mucky\" because of the rain drainage.

Still in an earlier race, Bailey used the same theory and got beat by staying wide down the strech and conceding the rail to a lesser horse.  Bailey even admitted to the reporters that he screwed up.

We can\'t run the race again, but I believe that a rail trip would have given Lion Heart the same reasonable fractions with less (perhaps much less) enervation.  The rail may have been the place to be, not to avoid.  How knows?

Still, the way Smarty Jones rated and chased down Lion Heart, who had it all his way, was quite impressive.

Great work TGJB.

I\'ve got yo believe you got the Arkansas races right--otherwise Lion Heart should have won.  Count me as a true believer now.

I can\'t believe Beyers lowered SJs fig because of the cringe factor!  I bet his accountant is doing the cringing now.

I didn\'t bet SJ because--I must confess--my faith in Thorograph against the both Beyers and Rag was just not quite strong enough,  and I also rationalized about green connections.  

O ye of little faith . . . .

TGJB,

Is this sort of assumption what caused Beyer to rate the Bluegrass prep faster than the Arkansas\'s?

From what I hear from my die-hard Rag friend, they had the Arkansas faster too, but Beyer blew it.

I know you are busy, but is this a chance to further explain why Beyer methodology seems to be worse than both Thorograph and Ragozin?

Thanks in advance.

TGJB,

On instinct, I would just say that Smarty Jones paired and work from there.  Given the track conditions, it makes sense that a lot of horse would not fire.

The clouds have broken and CD is in the midst of a deluge.

Who moves on the slop?

Chuckles,

You are right that, lately, the the Bluegrass fig horses have been crashing in the Derby.  I take it you think TCE is a throw out too.

But, I do recall Thunder Gulch, Sea Hero and Unbridled.  Now they, did not run great figs in the BG, but than had good excuses in talented races and fixed things on Derby day.  That\'s my angle on LH.  If he can correct his lead changes or quit waiting on horses . . . . (either will do, both will crush)

His connections my be 1) politically goofy (Smith) 2) wasteful with money (Tabor), and 3) possibly unethical (Biaconne), but LH doesn\'t know that. And none of those things ever caused a horse to lose.

But don\'t get me wrong, I odn\'t worship LH--he is by means a lock:

1.) A bad break could kill him and that easy to do in the Derby.

2.) An insane speed duel could cook him--not likely though.

3.) A MODERATELY closer-biased track could spoil his lead (which I still believe the BG was--how else could TCE make such a huge  jump up.  But we can disagree on this--you have your charts; I handicapped and watched the races live during meet.

Ironically, a VERY DEEP/TIRING TRACK will also favor LH because the jocks will let him go a super slow fractions and he won\'t be anymore tired in the strech than the closers--a little known and rare pace angle.

In sum, LH should be the favorite here.  So, he is a great bet as third oe fourth choice.

P-Dub:

Thanks for the analysis.  I was actually playing the devil\'s advocate when I posted, just to test my own views with the board expertise.

Chuckles:

Take it from me a long time Keeneland local: THE CLIFF\'S EDGE BLUEGRASS NUMBER IS PHONEY because of the closing bias at Keeneland. All this stuff about a speed bias at Keeneland is BS and has been for years.  If you want a real speed bias try Turfway Park in the winter.  Anyway, on Bluegrass day, it was all closers.

Prediction:

ON A FAIR TRACK, Lion Heart will make the rail (not 3 wide as in the Bluegrass) and put away any and all early challengers with moderate to fast fractions.  And, the closers will be tripping over themselves for the exacta.  Moreover, if he changes leads properly, he will win for fun.

Besides, Beyer has put the kiss of death on TCE.