Split Variants, Chapter 2,653

[TGJB]

Aqu 4/25:

Track watered before first, not again during card.

Track sealed after fifth.

Track harrowed before next dirt race (seventh), although they may actually have been \"flaking\" it (I describe this in the expo presentation that can be found on the home page-- it looks from the grandstand like harrowing, but it is really a light seal under a very shallow harrow).

Showers during seventh.

Track listed as FAST throughout the day.

The track was clearly slower (about 5 points) for the last 2 dirt races (7 and . Unless you make the ASSUMPTION that it can\'t be, in which case it wasn\'t.

[FORTKNOX]

TGJB,

Is this sort of assumption what caused Beyer to rate the Bluegrass prep faster than the Arkansas\'s?

From what I hear from my die-hard Rag friend, they had the Arkansas faster too, but Beyer blew it.

I know you are busy, but is this a chance to further explain why Beyer methodology seems to be worse than both Thorograph and Ragozin?

Thanks in advance.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

It's hard to be much of a fan of Ragozin. How anyone can bet those figures is really perplexing. Granted, I'm going back scores of years but their figures convinced me I needed to attempt to make them on my own. Ultimately, my conclusion was I was better than them but it was too much work and it was interfering with my ability to look into the non-figure aspects of handicapping, so I looked elsewhere.

One of "The Rags" principles was not to change variants unless there was an "observable phenomena" (Those are my words) upon which to hypothesize changing a variant. They stated rain was one of those "objective" reasons to split variants. When you realize the proposition is that moisture impacts the quickness of the surface, it raises an immense number of implications. They all generally involve degrees of moisture and compaction. I recognized this 15 plus years ago. (Though I didn't formulate "compaction" definitions in my mind...they were subsumed.) So the question is: "If moisture is a factor, is it a factor only when it rains?" Beyond that you have the rainy day implications and there's no better case study than Churchill on Derby Day:

Race 1
Showery/Muddy

3^F&M,NW2X,7f:22.77, 45.17, 1:10.09, 1:23.56
3^MSW,7f: 22.83, 45.81, 1:10.65, 1:23.81
3^NW2X,6.5f: 22.65, 45.63, 1:10.73, 1:17.21
3^NW2$X,6f: 21.20, 43.95, 56.04, 1:09.54

Race 5
Clear/Good

4^,200K,7f: 22.48, 45.27, 1:08.87, 1:21.38

Race 6
Clear/Fast

2yr,100K,5f: 21.75, 45.17, 57.98
4^F&M,250k,7f: 22.49, 45.04, 1:09.65, 1:22.78

Race 10
Showery/Sloppy

3yr,1000k,10f: 22.99, 46.73, 1:11.80, 1:37.35, 2:04.06
3^F&M,NW2$X,6.5f: 22.93, 45.82, 1:11.04, 1:17.52
3^MSW,8.5f: 23.63, 47.75, 1:13.17, 1:39.23, 1:45.87

Now the groupings are only grouped upon Equibase's calls of changing track conditions. But the question of course is did Ragozin formulate 4 different variants for these changing track conditions? Assuming they did, what about the changing conditions (i.e. drying out or becoming saturated) between races within one of the same track condition categories? (i.e. the three "Sloppy races" starting with the 10th or the four "Muddy" races starting with the 1st?) It looks very much to me that the track was becoming faster as the Muddy condition turned to Good and then perhaps it became slower by the Humana Distaff. (That's arguable, Azeri isn't really a 7 furlong horse and why Lukas spotted her there to give weight is grist for debate regarding his true acumen...however I think the track was slowing again is my hunch) Obviously there was a change in condition once the rains hit.

The whole point of this "MOTO" being if the track can change so quickly on a day like this why is it implausible that it doesn't change on days when the issue is anti rain? (i.e. wind and sun) "Unless you make the assumption that it can\'t change, in which case it doesn't"...lol

[TGJB]

CTC covered some of the related ground well in his post, and he is dead on about degrees of moisture. Those of you who have not already done so should check out the expo presentation on the home page, or do a search on this site using \"Jerry Porcelli\" (NYRA track supeintendent), \"moisture content\", or \"changing track speeds\".

Beyer is actually likely to make fewer assumptions about the track staying the same than Ragozin, although that does not necessarily mean he gets all of them right. I got a call after the Rebel from a well known guy who used to be on-camera for NYRA-- he uses Beyer, but he was questioning the Rebel figure. Andy had told him he split the race off simply because he didn\'t believe it, and the guy wanted to know what I had done with the race. I had given SJ the enormous figure, not that I liked it (I cringed), but because if you took that one horse out of the day it was completely clear what was going on-- the race fit tight with the day (I had the track getting faster, and actually added a little to that race), and internally within the race PP and Purge got exact pairups, with no one else running a new top. It was ice cold, so I had to give SJ the number, and Ragozin did the same (they run 3-4 points slower than us).

But I did the Blue Grass differently than Len did-- for whatever reason, I have learned that the 1 1/8ths at Kee often (meaning, as often as not) have no correlation with the 1 1/16th, let alone the 1 turn races. I gave them big figures, all right-- but not as big as I gave SJ. Ragozin basically gave both races the same figure, we had SJ almost 3 points better than TCE. At this point it is still an open question as to who got it right, based on results-- we will find out by looking at how ALL the horses out of the BG run.

Ragozin uses weight and ground, which makes for a significant advantage over Beyer both in using the figures for betting and for  future figure making decisions. But Ragozin is way too dogmatic, in ways that don\'t stand up to any critical scrutiny-- in terms of an understanding of variant making, Beyer is way ahead of Ragozin and Friedman, who pretty much blindly accepts whatever Ragozin says without examining it.

Before this gets too confusing-- just went back and read your post again. I\'ve been talking about the Rebel, which was SJ\'s biggest figure. We had his Ark Derby figure about a point faster then TGE\'s BG figure. Ragozin had it about 2 points SLOWER. Beyer had it about the same as Ragozin (1 TG/Rag point = 3.3 Beyer points). Again, time will tell.

I\'m tired, so I may or may not have gotten it right or covered this all. Going home, more tomorrow.

[FORTKNOX]

Great work TGJB.

I\'ve got yo believe you got the Arkansas races right--otherwise Lion Heart should have won.  Count me as a true believer now.

I can\'t believe Beyers lowered SJs fig because of the cringe factor!  I bet his accountant is doing the cringing now.

I didn\'t bet SJ because--I must confess--my faith in Thorograph against the both Beyers and Rag was just not quite strong enough,  and I also rationalized about green connections.  

O ye of little faith . . . .

[Silver Charm]

But I would rather hear the thousand words anyway on this one.

This picture was taken as the Derby horses were being taken over to the paddock.

Dickinson is not seeing if it tastes like the last remains of the brownie mix bowl.

http://www.courierjournal.com/cjsports/news2004/05/02derby/K7-lose0502-8356.html

CtC you were correct, the track was given a light harrow between races after the two year old race and was drying a little by the time Azeri\'s race came up which was probably 1 1/2 to 2 hours apart. Remember I said a little.

Mall, Little Kim couldn\'t get there something to do with her parole officer not being real keen about it. However I did take soon to be Giants Quarterback Eli Manning down to the paddock (who by the way had a blast, loved his first Derby and is a REAL GOOD kid)to introduce him to Wayne before the Ky Oaks. I introduced Wayne and said he had won 4 Derbies and 3 Oaks....before I could hardly finish the sentence he responded--\"Make that 4 Oaks.\"

And to think he used to tease Woody about  reminding people of his Five Straight Belmonts.

LOL

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Silver,

But did he insist he had won a Triple Crown?...lol

I didn\'t realize you were on an introductory basis with him...NOW i understand why you\'re found on his side...lol

Thats a classic shot of Dickinson...i\'m really not sure what he meant to ascertain...maybe with runoff there was a better path for footing. Whatever, it didn\'t work.  He\'s a different bird, but I like him, like Jerry said I think he gives it his all. Beer is nothing more than grain water so I imagine horses like it...lol I suppose horses can eat eggs...lol

My first Derby after several near misses was Strike the Gold. I never believed that dosage disqualified him. He was by Alydar and his female side had even stronger dosage believe it or not. At the Time, Alydar had already sired Easy Goer, Criminal Type, Turkoman. I\'m forgetting others, all 10 mark winners:

http://www.pedigreequery.com/index.php?query_type=horse&search_bar=horse&h=STRIKE%20THE%20GOLD&g=5&inbred=Standard&x2=n&pedloggedin=0

Look where Stikes Dosage is now...lol  Its strong. What a farce dosage is.

Did you hear Jerry say that the Wood bear in has been attributed by Tapits folks to be tooth related?  They pulled the offending tooth. I\'m not so sure. He wasn\'t bearing in before the stretch.  

I\'m sometimes wrong about pedigree...but not very often and my initial belief was that Tapit wasn\'t a lock on pedigree. I got a little confused with the stable making stories up for that Wood Stretch run but if it was a tooth, why wasn\'t it bothering him earlier in the race? Its not like the jock was restraining him with the bit during the stretch run. However he ultimately measures up, he\'s a success. Not many horses get to where hes gotten.

I still think that Wood close was against second flight horses and ideally set up. Being off the pace in that one was the place to be. He ran real well that race. I guess we\'ll see.



Post Edited (05-03-04 01:38)

[Silver Charm]

Hey CtC if you closely at that picture Dickinson is pushing his finger down as hard as he can, you see how deep he is getting don\'t you.

As Jerry alluded to earlier there was major work performed on the track all day long and as you said why would someone not believe that work would preformed on the track on any given day.

No Wayne didn\'t mentioned anything about having one Triple Crown but he did follow his \"Make that 4 Oaks\" remark with \"and it would have been 7 but I ran Althea, Winning Colors and Serenas Song in the Derby instead\". (just kidding there)

As another sidebar Wayne was saddling in stall 12 and Baffert was in stall 11. After having introduced Eli to Wayne as \"The King\" ,which he is, we stepped back off the apron as the horses began to enter the paddock. At that point Baffert called out to Eli to come over. I had just washed my hands, they were clean, no reason for me to get them soiled shaking his, so I stayed put.

When Eli returned he asked inquisitively--\"Who was that??\"

I told him the truth--\"A Racing Nobody\".

[pgsheets]

Granted, this is after the fact,  but I found a set of Rags for the Derby and noticed two very big differences and a few similiarites that made me scratch my head.
Note that this not meant to support and or fault either.

1) The Cliff\'s Edge was a complete toss on Rag based on the fact that he had yet to break through his 2 yr. old best prior to exploding to a 5 point new top in the BG.

2) Smarty Jones appeared to be a different horse as well.  The most interesting thing was Rag had an off race prior to the big move in the Rebel.  He was still 0-2 , but had not thrown in 3 straight efforts and looked much more bettable.  For CtC and others less pig-headed than me,  he was bettable in any case.

3)  Lion Heart was the same on both.

Thanks.

[Mall]

I read the articles, many of them derogatory, but what Michael D. was doing made perfect sense to me. Maybe he downloaded the seminar. What didn\'t make sense, perhaps because I haven\'t heard his thinking on the subject, was not equipping his charge with caulks or bends on a day like Sat. I\'m confident if he had that we wouldn\'t be hearing that his horse lost shoes in consecutive races.

Too bad about Kim, but according to today\'s paper Jessica Simpson & Nicole Richie more than made up for her absence. If I only knew who these people are the articles would make a lot more sense.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Silver Wrote:

>Hey CtC if you closely at that picture Dickinson is pushing his finger down as hard as he can, you see how deep he is getting don\'t you.

I was told the track was sticky with about 2 inches depth and no bounce. What did Jerry call it? \"No drop hammer response\"

>As Jerry alluded to earlier there was major work performed on the track all day long and as you said why would someone not believe that work would preformed on the track on any given day.

Not being there is the thing. I monitor race times and like jerry\'s friend at aqueduct I watch what I can see of the track color and the soil on the returning horses. I don\'t think that track was sloppy fast or sloppy carrying by the 10th. The huge amount of time between races hurts taking a stand on the track.

>No Wayne didn\'t mentioned anything about having one Triple Crown but he did follow his \"Make that 4 Oaks\" remark with \"and it would have been 7 but I ran Althea, Winning Colors and Serenas Song in the Derby instead\". (just kidding there)

I still think he only won 3 oaks.  

>As another sidebar Wayne was saddling in stall 12 and Baffert was in stall 11. After having introduced Eli to Wayne as \"The King\" ,which he is, we stepped back off the apron as the horses began to enter the paddock. At that point Baffert called out to Eli to come over. I had just washed my hands, they were clean, no reason for me to get them soiled shaking his, so I stayed put.

When Eli returned he asked inquisitively--\"Who was that??\"

I told him the truth--\"A Racing Nobody\".

lol...I know neither had Derby starters so I have to assume you\'re talking about another race. HEY..what did you think about the 3-Chimney\'s?  Lukas ran a 650K carson city filly for Bev and Bob Lewis against the colts. It was dry then.  I\'m serioulsy thinking about writing him to offer some conformation and pedigree advice. He\'s off on a wild goose chase right now. I suspect whoever helped him in the 80\'s is off the team. Maybe it was Jeff.



Post Edited (05-03-04 16:08)