Question for TGJB - LION HEART and Smith

[MO]

TGJB,

If Mike Smith took a rail trip on the 1st turn, would he have won the race? What would his figure be had he taken the rail on both turns?

MO

[FORTKNOX]

MO,

No doubt that Lion Heart wasted energy going wide, but Smith probably thought the rail would be espcially \"mucky\" because of the rain drainage.

Still in an earlier race, Bailey used the same theory and got beat by staying wide down the strech and conceding the rail to a lesser horse.  Bailey even admitted to the reporters that he screwed up.

We can\'t run the race again, but I believe that a rail trip would have given Lion Heart the same reasonable fractions with less (perhaps much less) enervation.  The rail may have been the place to be, not to avoid.  How knows?

Still, the way Smarty Jones rated and chased down Lion Heart, who had it all his way, was quite impressive.

[TGJB]

MO--

LH would have been closer if Smith had grabbed the rail, but wouldn\'t have picked up enough to win the race-- but he didn\'t know that at the time, did he. They took the rail this time with an early pick-- have to wonder about the logic of doing that while riding a guy who continually doesn\'t save ground, and not just with this horse.

[MO]

OK thanks.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Smith doesn\'t save ground when he\'s behind probably because of the danger thats always present. He likes to see a clear path. But he\'s tipped his hand again. Its a go-go rail trip and Pimlico is notorious for periods of golden rail. Not that either of those points is news...we all know Lion is gonna go, they\'ve just firmly ruled out any other options...lol

I\'ll have to review the current charts.

CtC



Post Edited (05-13-04 16:04)

[Kingfisher]

Actually, taking the one hole could be a way to force Lion Heart / Smith to stay in the one path, as long as he doesn\'t go out too fast. If he allows someone else to stay abreast in the two slot it would keep him from going wide.

[Florida Phil]

Mo...the question has no answer because the premise is ridiculous.  

Mike Smith CANNOT and will not EVER take a rail trip.

[HP]

Defintely Smith cost the horse third money in the Preakness. Do the connections care? I would.

In the article I read in the DRF, it said:

\"Lion Heart covered the first quarter-mile in 23.65 seconds. As is his custom, he raced well out from the rail.\"

As is his custom? Unreal. Before the Preakness, all I could think of was \"how will Smith lose ground from the rail? Is it possible?\" My answer was - he will find a way. And he did! I didn\'t hit the race, but I didn\'t put a dime on him Saturday, which was some cold comfort. AWFUL rides in both races.  HP

[Florida Phil]

Thank you HP. \"As is his custom\" meant Smith, not the Lion.  

And I am upset with myself for thinking Smith had little choice but to save ground for place or at worst show.  If I was smart like you I would have considerably more dimes today.