Did Stu Blow It?

[FORTKNOX]

According to the fractions I read from my on-line betting service, SJ rated kindly with the leaders at just 24 secs each for his first two quaters, then quite unecessarily ACCELERATED into the 23s each for his next two quarters, only to collapse in the last half, especially the last quarter.  

In short, given that SJ has proven his ability to rate in general and did so for the first half of this race, the only conclusion I can see is that the jockey just lost his nerve and moved with a mile to go!    

Five million down the drain.  There is a reason that the experienced, big-money trainers choose experienced, big-money jocks.  (Likewise, there is a reason I keep my bets small--I\'m an inexperienced, small-money handicapper).

[Saddlecloth]

ummm. if he did not accelerate he would have been shuffled back, he is a front running type of horse, who weekend cause of the distance, he ran a 1 1/4 in 2:00 but came home in 27.1, ouch.

[BitPlayer]

FORTKNOX -

You may be reading too much into the fractional times.  The 3rd and 4th quarters would have been run on a straightaway down the backstretch, whereas the 1st and 2nd quarters would each have been run partially on the clubhouse turn, where SJ was a couple of paths off the rail.  Wind direction may also have played a role (I have no idea which way it was blowing).

I think if Stu is to be criticized, it would be for not sitting a bit longer when Rock Hard Ten moved up on his inside.  I think it\'s tough to be critical because SJ did beat everyone except Birdstone, and Stu was probably more concerned about Rock Hard Ten and Eddington.

[Thehoarsehorseplayer]

It\'s not so much that Elliot blew it as it is that he failed to win it.  He probably rode the race to the best of his abilitiies.  But in the end this was a classic case of masterful connections teaching the out of town guys how it is done on their home track.
Zito and Prado took Servis and Elliot to school.  And I hope we all got an education.

[Bham41]

Zito\'s MAgic if you can\'t beat them get them to beat themselves.  A horse that small lasting as long as he did is amazing 2:00 AT 1 1/4 would win any shorter race.  The bigger horses like RHT didn\'t stand a chance and Zito going in said he was going for second.  I think even he was surprised that Smarty faded too.  Left Zito with an impressive Kennel 1st and 3rd to add to his 5 of 11 now 12 second  place finishes in the triple crown chases.


As for the 5 Million down the drain I don\'t think so - more like an incentive bonus that was just out of reach. Not to mention a good hype job that cost the american public a lot more than the 5 mil in chump change but VISA lives on interest, hidden charges, late fees, overlimit fees and our money anyways they can afford the hype.



Post Edited (06-06-04 10:27)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

The more I look at the race, the better it looks to me. The multiple challenges developed and the distance was certainly a factor. Smarty beat Rock Hard and Eddington by 11 plus lengths again. But Birdstone picked up the pieces by having the best late energy. If Birdstone and Smarty ran that race as a match race. I dont think Bird would win it in 10 tries.  Things just conspired to Beat Smarty and he may have even weakened a bit late due to the toll of all those other fast races.

I tell you what I don\'t respect even though I know its horse racing. I don\'t respect the gem skippers. I don\'t think its sporting to skip the Preakness to have you\'re horse more fit for the Belmont and I think Zito should be ashamed. I\'d do it too if Bird was my horse, but he still should be ashamed. I\'m puttin the mojo on that retard Zito. S.O.B. can\'t even speak the language. Good thing he\'s got the old bitty as a client.

>Wind direction may also have played a role (I have no idea which way it was blowing).<

The wind was blowing with them in the backstretch.

I wouldn\'t put too much weight on the fractions because of the wind, but I do put a lot of weight on what I saw.

Smarty was having a little more difficult time relaxing at the slower pace of the 1 1/2M. He challenged a bit prematurely and repulsed several bids on the backstretch as he took the lead.

The horses that were up there with him all collapsed from their efforts and the distance. Visually you could see they were tired and crawling.

Smarty also tired, but to his credit he didn\'t collapse like the others.  

Birdstone got a perfect trip even if he did run better than in the recent past.

I\'m not sure what kind of numbers everyone is going to give the race, but I would not be suprised if some people interpret the speed of this race incorrectly by incorporating the fact that all the contenders were exhausted into the track variant and thus giving Birdstone and Royal Assault more credit than they deserve speed figure wise.  

IMHO, what really happened was that Eddington, RHT, Purge, and Smarty all ran slower than their usual race (because of their early efforts and the distance) and Birdstone and Royal Assault picked up the pieces.

[FORTKNOX]

Finally, looking at the Equibase Chart for SJ\'s approximate quarter fractrions:

24.40
24.40
23.00 (!)
23.30 (!)
25.10
27.00

The notes say that SJ \"surged to the front just after going a half mile.\"  I\'ll say--that\'s what my eyes saw too.

This is not just a tail-wind-on-the-straight-away thing, nor is it a horse not bred to go 12 panels.  Plain and simple, Elliot lost his nerve and punched it way, way early.  Even Secretariat would have been staggering home after such an absurd move.

Let\'s see if SJ\'s connections learned a lesson.

[Silver Charm]

Didn\'t you see the story on the internet.

Ron Anderson announced earlier this morning Jerry Bailey has picked up the mount.

[twoshoes]

Do you bet Belmont often? Wind has a tremendous effect on the running of the races at this course (as any - in my opinion because of the way the place is layed out even more so.) I\'ve watched the race and the replay about six times now. Plain and simple - Smarty didn\'t run his A race - probably came back to about 0-1 negative. He gutted the presumed competition and left them for dead. If Birdstone weren\'t in the race or wasn\'t prepped to the minute by Zito over a very deep Oklahoma training track at Saratoga we wouldn\'t be having this discussion now. We\'d be saluting a champion. For what it\'s worth - I still am.

[FORTKNOX]

JB on SJ!  Great news--I am mailing in my bet on the travers and thinking hard about the BC Classic.

No doubt SJ almost won even with a dubious ride--he is a great talent.  I salute him too.

[Josephus]

IMHO Stu didn\'t blow it.  I had a seat at the 8th pole and had a good view of the turn with my glasses, he really wasn\'t asking his horse to run until he caught sight of Birdstone closing in on him.  But SJ was really into the bit on the backside because of the pressure on both sides, Elliot wasn\'t asking him, and I don\'t think he could have taken a hold and wrestled him back off the pace at that point. SJ just didn\'t have a breather at any point.  The only critique I might make is ... he sent him right out of the gate to cross over, esp. with Eddington\'s bad start, and that is the move that got SJ so into racing that relaxing was the last thing on his mind. He might be a push button horse on when to go ,but not when to take back.

[MO]

First of all, Smarty was not on the muscle in the paddock like he was in the prior 2 races. This raised a caution flag for me. This was the cumulative effect that all those negative numbers  had on him.

2nd, the post draw hurt, not helped because he was forced wide on the first turn, wide enough to make up the difference at the wire.

3rd - Elliott moved WAY TOO SOON, a point I made to some friends while watching the race. That move he made after leaving the 1st turn was the move he should have saved for the 2nd turn.

And so it was a combination of the 3 that did Smarty in.



Post Edited (06-06-04 21:02)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Keen insight Josephus. You can debate it, but i know this is the greatest horse to not win a triple crown. I haven\'t looked at the race yet on replay I was so disgusted, but I\'ve studied the fractions and though Smarty isn\'t a Secretariat...this is one that shouldn\'t have gotten away. I\'m still stunned it did. All that time to consider Belmonts and they run that type of race?....the hot pace developed for the mile and thats what what got Smarty beat its that simple. Someone said Secretariat could have come home in 24 from there. Thats probably true.

[HP]

I don\'t think Stewy blew it. Smarty didn\'t have anyone to chase. Elliot was fighting the horse to ratchet him down. I think being on the lead freaked him out. If ANYONE else would have led the way for the first three quarters of a mile or so, I think Smarty would have held on and won. I think he would have relaxed more with someone to follow early. The way things went, Elliot would have had to strangle him to get him to rate, and he obviously didn\'t have to do that chasing Lion Heart. I think it\'s more a function of the horse in this case than the jockey.  

I really hated Rock Hard Ten in this race because Solis has no brain and figured to have no way of timing the race to take advantage of anything. Also a horse that has consistent trouble loading in the gate like that is never going to win a damn thing. I keyed Eddington. In my opinion, Bailey screwed up more because Solis would have done a lot of the dirty work anyway and Bailey could have waited more. I heard him (Bailey) say he would ride this way on the radio on Friday but I thought maybe it was a little smoke to get the other guys thinking. I don\'t think you can blame Hennig for this.

HP