The Day After

[jbelfior]

Not a good day at the windows. Met my buddies at the Mdwlds and they talked me into Mongolian Saturday. Rough going the rest of the way as the $50 win bet on MS was gone by the Sprint.

Photo Call was rank and tough to handle. Dame Dorothy had a rough trip but top 2 were just better.

Not sure what Ricardo Santana\'s plan was with Holy Boss. He seemed to be more intent on making sure PZ didn\'t win. Exacta boxes with the top 3 betting choices and $20 tri boxes. To get beat out of a score like that by Favorite Tale from the 14 post---well thank God for inventing Kettel and club.

Loved Frosted and wheeled him on top and put enough on the Pharoah-Frosted exacta to erase all prior bad memories. All I could think of in the stretch was Jerry\'s seminar and his reference to McLaughlin horses on days like this.

Still a great Christmas, win or lose. Congrats to all of you who both enjoyed the day AND made a few. Where else can you get that feeling when AP was drawing away in the lane. What a great sport.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[T Severini]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
>
> Loved Frosted and wheeled him on top and put
> enough on the Pharoah-Frosted exacta to erase all
> prior bad memories. All I could think of in the
> stretch was Jerry\'s seminar and his reference to
> McLaughlin horses on days like this.
>
>
>
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B


I saw an interview with McLaughlin pre race and have rarely seen him so confident. Frosted had been training at a facility called GTC, still do not know where that is, but it\'s likely a training center.

I\'m not sure Frosted broke properly. I refuse to rewatch the race, because its all moot now, but he certainly had the chance to engage. The fact that he did not remains a puzzlement.

The Travers was the model. When you depart from the model against a quality horse like that, the consequences are foreseeable.

[jbelfior]

GTC is up in Saratoga.
He beat one horse. Don\'t agree with blaming the tactics on what I thought was simply a really bad performance. Don\'t recall who on this board ---but he was renamed \"fraudster\" back in the triple crown months. Never agreed with him---until now.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[johnnym]

Frosted last race was at Parx,besides the first race on Saturday no horses form carried over from Parx..
Classic was a joke in my opinion,when Beholder and Smooth Roller scratched,AP had a free lead no pressure. I know some here say pace doesn\'t matter but.
Sorry to hear about the bad day I had a very Good Christmas.
Sheets treated me right.

[T Severini]

johnnym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Frosted last race was at Parx,besides the first
> race on Saturday no horses form carried over from
> Parx..
> Classic was a joke in my opinion,when Beholder and
> Smooth Roller scratched,AP had a free lead no
> pressure. I know some here say pace doesn\'t matter
> but.
> Sorry to hear about the bad day I had a very Good
> Christmas.
> Sheets treated me right.


Johnny...I think there was at least one horse from Parx that held form. It was my horse in the Sprint Favorite Tale.....when the number comes in from the Sprint, I\'m fairly confident Favorite Tale will have the best figure. I knew I was up against it on wide going in.

I\'m about out of posts for the day, so here I\'ll also state that I do believe the Classic fell apart on the bias...however even if they engage AP early it may not have been enough...AP\'s priors were no faster than others in the race and those others just weren\'t close. A Mass Regression may have also played a role....The alternative being Tonalist, Honor Code, Keen Ice and Frosted scored their -3\'s and Effinex got a -4 or -5 and AP receives a -6 or so.

Trying to remember the name of the Zito front runner that scored real high figs @ Keeneland when left unchallenged. (Commentator) In the end you have to take on the high speed cruisers or the pace makes for figures that are going to be hard to reconcile.

You\'d think the others in the race would know that, maybe second place money was their objective.

[miff]

The count:

5 NY based winners

3 Cali based winners

2 Euros

1 Canada

2 Nomads(Runhappy,Mong Sat)


Kiaran Mc L and Clement bombed,all their horses were empty.

[johnnym]

You are correct he ran a very respectful 3rd to the 2 beast\'s of the race.
Would like to see the #s for those horses. Did Run Happy move up?

Over all though other than the first race no horses coming over from Parx won a race.
I believe 3 or 4 winner\'s had their tune up race at Keenland and 2 came from Belmont.
Over all enjoyed the hell out of the day.

[jerry]

After the Turf Sprint result, I\'m surprised I\'m not hearing more booyah on this board the morning. Analysis mostly nailed it and the payouts were generous.

[jbelfior]

So Beholder or Smooth Roller were going to press AP?

Class laughs at pace except when it\'s classy pace. This was Ghostzapper all over again.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[Wrongly]

Only strong opinion I had yesterday was that Runhappy is a freak and my attempts to exploit that went up in flames thanks to the Mongolians.  Phoneix was an incredible race and the gate work last week was sensational!  Hope he stays sound and Happy, can\'t wait to see him next year.  Keeneland put on a great show!

[Boscar Obarra]

Aren\'t Mongolians known for their prowess with horses?

[Wrongly]

Call me prejudice but aren\'t Mongolians ruining our society.  We should put up a wall to keep them out.

[P-Dub]

My day wasn\'t awful, hit enough to keep me above water.

Hit Race 1 with the rail horse Hebronville and exacta, The opening P3 didn\'t pay much but it was cheap to play. Great price ($18) on arguably the fastest horse in the race.

Juv Fillies:
Keyed Songbird and whiffed when a) Rachel Valentina placed and b) Wavell Avenue won killing the P3 starting with this race.

Turf Sprint:
Trifecta a gift from the seminar. If you can read, you should have cashed it. Mongolian Saturday the play at 15-1 and a nice win bet too.

F&M Sprint:
Whiffed everything. Keyed Artemis who ran DFL.

F&M Turf:
Keyed Stephanie\'s Kitten and missed the tri when the #2 Sentiero Italia just got beat out of 3rd. 17.60 a square price on the win bet.

Sprint:
Great story with Runhapppy.  Not great for my wagers, as this blew up all horizontal wagers. I got stubborn and tossed. Keyed Ivan who didn\'t do much.

Mile:
Keyed Tourist, another whiff. Tepin, who was so good to me at 9-1 earlier this year, wins at 9/2. Very frustrating as I had the 2/3 horses. Thought that trifecta came back on the light side. $539 with the fav out, 9/2 17/1 13/1 hit the board.

Juvenile:
Nyquist killed everything. Played Conquest. Whiff.

Turf:
Win bet on Found. Mentioned previously that I will play Euros in this race forever, and lasix a big bonus. 6/1 not a bad price, hit the small tri.

Classic:
Yep, Tonalist for me.  I looked at Enffinex and played a nice exacta with Tonalist, thought that was the only real value in the race.  It was, if you played him with AP which I did not.

Not awful, but couldn\'t string together any wins for horizontals. Every win was followed by a whiff. Very frustrating, I\'m blaming the person who set up the race sequence. Bastard, you cost me money.  The races I completely whiffed in, and there were several , ate up a lot of capital. We talked about this in a previous string, but on BC day every race presents opportunity unlike any other day. I\'m ok with taking a shot on more races than I would normally play, thats the allure and fun of BC day.

Lastly, JB you put out a product that is second to none. The Breeders\' Cup is often my best wagering day(s) of the year, and it is because of the great information you provide.  The seminar/analysis is outstanding, and gives me a great head start as I look over the data. From there I will add or subtract from your analysis, but it is a great baseline to construct wagers. I don\'t question what you do, the results speak. Outstanding and thanks for all of the effort you put in, whether its putting out your product or contributing to the dialogue on the board.

[Molesap]

Not too surprising about McLaughlin and Clement in terms of performances as coming in this year they were 31-2-3-2 and 26-0-5-2 in Breeder\'s Cup races respectively. Casse upped his record significantly as he was 23-0-2-2 coming into this weekend. Sadler had arguably the worst record coming in as he was 35-0-2-6 in Breeder' Cup races while McPeek was 25-0-5-8. That mostly tells me how tough it is to win a Breeder's Cup race.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Runhappy is based out of Keeneland all his pre kings bishop works are from there,and I know clockers who told me long before this to look out for this horse...

NCTony