NormandyInvasion: Zayat\'s not making $50m. The horse was sold in Dec/Jan for $13m or thereabouts.

Why are so many upset that the horse lost?  My gosh, he has 3 months left in a very short career.  Had they won everyone crying now would be singing a different tune.  They gave it a shot to allow him to fully show his potential.  It didn\'t work out.  No need to be upset.

TGJB: Or maybe he wasn\'t coming off a huge effort.

metroj: Or maybe he didn\'t run on an, arguably, deadish rail with a rival jockey doing his best to keep him pinned to it.

Boscar Obarra: Not enough respect being given to the possibility that Keen Ice was on the better part of the track.

 Even so, beaten less than 1L, would not have taken much to get home on top, AP was done and could , as they say, find no more.

 Seen the best get beat, and look much worse than AP did in defeat.

 I personally think it was a certain TV handicapper that after 7 races finally got on board. The bad karma there alone was like an extra 10 lbs.

TGJB: That rail killed Private Zone. Otherwise neg 3 would have neg 6.

T Severini: metroj Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Or maybe he didn\'t run on an, arguably, deadish
> rail with a rival jockey doing his best to keep
> him pinned to it.

Interesting

Didn\'t watch the day, but there looks to be some evidence for that

Boscar Obarra: T Severini Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> metroj Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Or maybe he didn\'t run on an, arguably, deadish
> > rail with a rival jockey doing his best to keep
> > him pinned to it.
>
> Interesting
>
> Didn\'t watch the day, but there looks to be some
> evidence for that


 I have a feeling Jerry doesn\'t think so, but not too sure ;-)

metroj: I did say arguably.  

Just seemed outside paths overall better for the day, even loose on the lead types seemed to stay several paths off on the backstretch.

Fairmount1: Verrazano wasn\'t the same in the Travers as the Haskell either.  

And Baffert isn\'t the same in the Adirondacks lately as he is in the Haskell or as good as he was in the early part of the century at Saratoga.

T Severini: Boscar Obarra Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> T Severini Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > metroj Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > Or maybe he didn\'t run on an, arguably,
> deadish
> > > rail with a rival jockey doing his best to
> keep
> > > him pinned to it.
> >
> > Interesting
> >
> > Didn\'t watch the day, but there looks to be
> some
> > evidence for that
>
>
>  I have a feeling Jerry doesn\'t think so, but not
> too sure ;-)


Yeah...he\'s adamant a regression altered the order.

I\'ll have to look at the films, but on the Chart a few low odds favorites appeared to back up from the rail, excepting Private Zone. If it was heavy, Keen Ice was there at times and I believe Jerry\'s recommendation got on it some too.

With reports of all the water they laid down and a pretty clear slow, fast, slow track it would not be surprising if path became variable too.

It might also explain, Baffert and Espinoza believing AP\'s action wasn\'t as effortless. Still think order of finish influenced their beliefs. What was said about Jockeys and size five hats?

miff: JB,

Performance Beyer has Runhappy faster than Private Zone by 1.25 points after weight adj(neg -3.25 vs neg -2)

1. Did you tie the 7f times to make the figs for the 3 races or project off all the horses in each race?

2. Could you post these races after you do them.

Thanks!

Mike

TGJB: We will post the seminar race later today or tomorrow.

You always use the horses, every day at every track, to make figures. There is no other way to do it. If you\'re asking whether the track changed speed, I took about 3 off the Ballerina relative to the day, added a little to the Kings Bishop. It was pretty straightforward. Runhappy gets a big figure, not as big as PZ. We\'re going to review the Ellis race.

miff: Thanks. Find it interesting as you will have PZ faster than Runhappy, everyone else the other way.

Ellis TG fig for Runhappy lined up very close to Rags and Beyer.

TGJB: If you assume the track stayed the same speed-- which as discussed here many times Ragozin\'s acolytes do, based on zero science-- you\'re going to have a problem with that part of the day, not just those two races. I wouldn\'t have done that even without knowing about the uneven watering, I assume as little as possible, and never assume dirt or synthetics stay the same. Grass is a different story.

Would also point out that PZ was carrying 7 pounds more than R, which won\'t show up in some figures.

miff: True, I adjusted Beyer for 7 lbs. Pace fig guys have Runhappy even faster than clock difference after weight adj. The most intriguing figs for me will be Rags.

Interesting tidbit along Franks note, was my friend at SPA said there were puddles around the whole crown/outer part before Travers.Has photos of AP going to gate very washy.