Was it greed or ego???

[T Severini]

hmmmmm

I wonder if Zayat has any more left.

I just want another chance to get some.

[FrankD.]

All you need to know about Zayat I saw on my way into the track on Friday.I was walking down Wright St from my parking spot of about 7 years waiting to cross Nelson Ave down the alley way to the tracks clubhouse side.

The seasonal rent a cops direct traffic and cross pedestrians and to my knowledge in my 43 years no one has ever gotten run over going to the track at this spot.
There was a Saratoga police officer on horseback and a guy in a golf cart following him up the alley way, they stopped at the corner as the track goers were crossing. A female rent a cop simply said to the police officer don\'t back up with the horse, there is a golf cart right behind you.

In a nano second a bald, darker complexion gentlemen with coke bottle glasses let out a F bomb rant directed at the rent a cop. \" He\'s my F\'in escort taking me to see AP you F\'in idiot, what the F is wrong with you and on and on etc....
I looked at who it was and just shook my head. How the F did this guy become a billionaire!!!!!

It was as ugly and classless a move in front of a couple hundred people as I have ever seen.

Frank D.

[miff]

Bad karma?

Bris:

McLaughlin on Frosted\'s unplanned change of tactics: \'unfortunate for us and maybe for American Pharoah too\'


In the aftermath of Saturday\'s Travers (G1), it\'s an interesting counterfactual to wonder about the effect of the last-minute rider change for Frosted, who tired to third after unexpectedly pressing American Pharoah early.

His regular rider, Joel Rosario, would probably have employed the more patient tactics that have worked well since the pair teamed up in the spring. But Rosario went down in a spill a couple of races earlier on the card in the Forego (G1). Once it was determined that he had to go to Albany Medical Center for X-rays, that put paid to any hopes of his guiding his familiar partner in the \"Midsummer Derby.\"

Jose Lezcano landed the plum pickup mount and made an on-the-spot tactical decision to prompt American Pharoah. After all, Frosted had comfortably gotten himself into a stalking second, while the Triple Crown champion was loping through an opening quarter in :24.68. Lezcano would logically have thought that, unless someone went up to force the issue, \"Pharoah\" would enjoy another cakewalk on the front end. And with Frosted being in position to do so, Lezcano moved him onto the champion\'s flank as they advanced down the backstretch.

That move appeared to pay dividends rounding the far turn, when Pharoah uncharacteristically came under a ride after six furlongs in 1:11.48. Frosted was traveling the better of the pair and briefly headed the Triple Crown winner at the top of the stretch. By that point, eventual winner Keen Ice was several lengths back and already under the whip.

But as we all saw, Pharoah showed the proverbial \"heart of a champion\" to come again and repel Frosted. Thus worn out from his protracted battle, Pharoah had nothing left when Keen Ice stayed on his typically dour fashion and edged clear in the final yards.

Frosted finished a further 2 1/4 lengths adrift in third, and trainer Kiaran McLaughlin commented Sunday on the rider change.

\"It\'s so tough to lose your jockey 30 minutes before the race,\" McLaughlin said. \"Joel has been working him since March and knows him so well and rides him so well. We didn\'t want to engage (American Pharoah) that early but Jose rode him well.

\"It looked like American Pharoah would be on the lead, maybe Upstart would press him, and we\'d be third to fifth. We always break well, but just try to sit third to fifth. He took it upon himself to go and engage him early because no one else was there.

\"It was unfortunate for us and maybe for American Pharoah, too.\"

If Frosted had not pressed Pharoah, he might well have had more punch left late. But by that same logic, wouldn\'t Pharoah have had more left too, and kept finding more if let alone? In hindsight, we can wonder that maybe Pharoah wouldn\'t have found as much as usual, since he wasn\'t giving Victor Espinoza his usual cruising vibe -- something that Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert could pick up from the stands. Or was that rather a result of the pressure? Unless Pharoah was challenged early, his vulnerability on the day might never have been exposed.

Anyway, from a tactical perspective, you\'d have to think that handing Pharoah an uncontested lead is virtually consigning yourself to a minor award -- unless you want to assume that the 3-10 favorite is going to self-implode. By pressing, at least you\'re changing the equation from one that\'s very much against you, to an uncertain one that could work.

The rejoinder to that is maybe Frosted can\'t sustain that kind of prolonged engagement; maybe he just needs to play the hand he\'s dealt, come what may, which Rosario would know.

Still, McLaughlin recognized that Frosted ran a strong race in defeat.

\"He\'s in good shape,\" the horseman said on the day after. \"He certainly put in a good effort; it just wasn\'t exactly the game plan. I was excited at the quarter pole, we were head and head. I thought maybe we were going to get lucky again, but it didn\'t work out. He ran a big race.\"

And McLaughlin was complimentary of a similar audible called by Lezcano on Belmont Day:

\"When Wedding Toast ran (in the Ogden Phipps [G1]), I told (Jose) to lay third. He broke, he (went to the lead), and he kept going and won by five (lengths).\"

[TGJB]

I\'m curious why you decided that was the opinion you wanted to post, not all the quotes from Espinoza saying he could feel early on he didn\'t have the same horse under him, or Baffert saying he could see that just watching.

[miff]

Did not see Bafferts opinion, did see two pace fig guys say middle half cooked top two and winner did 3rd most running. You see those?

[Dana666]

Just tell me, if you\'re using T-G Sheets to help manage that horse, do you run him back in 3 weeks after that huge number in the Haskell? Regardless of what the horse was telling them, the sheet number said a big bounce was likely, just as he did back in the spring off similar rest. Why not wait a few more weeks for some other race--when is the PA Derby for example--or even wait for Santa Anita? They must have been paid appearance fees as well though I don\'t know that for sure. That\'s what I mean by greed--you\'re making 50 million or something for syndication and you sell him out for a lousy 50K or whatever they got under the table for showing up. Maybe they\'re not even using sheets, but I find it unlikely that someone on that team wouldn\'t consult T-G sheets--you couldn\'t have missed that bounce coming.

[TGJB]

What would I care about that? Seriously?

You have the rider, both right after the race on TV and in the press, saying he could tell he didn\'t have the same horse. You also have common sense, which I went into at great length about yesterday. The last thing in the world I\'m concerned about is another handicappers opinion.

Doing the day now, the horse ran back to about the level of the Preakness and Belmont. WHICH MAKES PERFECT SENSE. You don\'t need to find some complicated reason to explain it. There\'s nothing to explain.

And by the way, the whole race fits well, both internally and with the other route. There\'s no reason to go through all this. It\'s simple. The horse did what he figured to, unfortunately (for me), KI went forward again.

One thing I will say, I was the only one who got the Derby right. Period. No way KI makes any sense at all otherwise.

[TGJB]

It was a day under 4 weeks. It always has been.

[ringato3]

Mike,

I guess pace guys disagree as often as figure guys.  My service has race well sub-par for early pace.   Actually to an extreme.  Although they slant to 1/2 mile pace call with their figures.

Big difference between saying \"middle fig cooked AP\" and \"pace was fast\".

No doubt AP looked cooked after middle half.  But jockey, trainer, and 90% of the people who analyzed the race don\'t think it was related to pace at all (doesn\'t mean they are right, but it doesn\'t look very debatable - 90% likely an understatement)  .  I think MJellish had it exactly right.  The middle half could have had some effect, but not to the effect it did.

The horse just didn\'t run as well.  

As for Keen Ice running 3rd best.  No argument from me.  He sucked up into a 26 and change final quarter.  

But if AP was AP from Haskell day, the pace and Keen Ice would have been irrelevant.

Still waiting to hear from connections as to why TExas Red was despicable and Upstart almost as bad with a 1w/1w trip and not even the brief interest he showed in the HAskell.  Self loathing all day today for using Upstart instead of Keen Ice when I was posting right after the Haskell how bad Upstart was.  Oh well.  That is racing.

Rob

[miff]

Why did just about everyone write 3 weeks? Did hear Espinoza said that, can\'t count?

[TGJB]

Dave Johnson has a line about jockeys-- \"They don\'t wear size 5 hats for nothing\".

[miff]

Try telling Baffert/Espinoza that AP \"ran his race\" as the figure makers figs will suggest.

I\'m thrilled to learn that race dynamics(pace/protracted throw downs are irrelevant in deciding which horses benefited or were hurt.

[Dana666]

OK, I stand corrected, but if you take out a day or two of training from the shipping west then east again, it is more like three weeks, and besides your product clearly was not involved in AP\'s management if you read my other post. The pattern from the spring indicates he\'s not pairing up another negative 3 or whatever; he\'s going to react, even considering the h? notation. I\'ve found that handy comment doesn\'t really exclude the possibility of a bounce, because in the end, it is still a huge performance. I guess I\'m the only one who saw that so clearly and failed to make any serious cash from the observation.I\'ll stand by my original opinion, and I don\'t believe their BS that they thought he was doing so well. And lastly I thought Keen Ice ran a great race. I would take nothing away from him. Rosario rode Frosted like he was the best horse, he wasn\'t, but it was a very fairly run race. I just wished the best AP had been able to show his stuff. I personally feel it\'s not fair to the horse. That\'s all I\'m saying.

[FrankD.]

Dana,

NYRA did not pay any appearance fees what so ever. That\'s a foolish statement.

Baffert wanted no part of this and if Travers was in the original plan he would have come here after the Haskell instead of crossing the country.

Blame social media for driving this engine and Zayat\'s ego he wanted his great champion to win the Travers as only the 2nd TC winner and the only horse ever to win TC, Haskell and Travers. They succumbed to the publics out cry.

The legend of the great one\'s falling at the Spa continues and the next TC winner will try to break the \"Grave yard of favorites\" curse as well.

Frank D.

[ringato3]

Dana

0 for 2.

No appearance fee.

And no Rosario..  (although it doesn\'t detract from your point that Lezcano was the jockey).

Rob