Was it greed or ego???

[Dana666]

Can\'t help but think two races in three weeks, shipping across the county and back again, was just insane. Do they even know their horse? It was very unfair in my opinion, asking him to do too much. Don\'t get me wrong, I really liked Keen Ice today, but this horse is way bigger than just cashing or not cashing a small bet in one race. The purse of 1.25 million is also paltry compared to whatever they\'ll get for syndication. So why not pick one, Haskell or Travers??? That kind of experience can ruin a horse mentally. I\'d be very leery of his next couple races, if he even races again. You want him in the Breeder\'s Cup? You can have him. I mean, he looked like a completely different horse in the flesh today compared with the Haskell. And on NBC they said he gained weight??? I doubt that. I told Victor Espinoza on Social media Monday I thought this race might get him, and, strangely, he was wasn\'t angry with me (later I thought I shouldn\'t have said that to him). He agreed this would be his toughest race. Am I over analyzing here? Maybe so, but since I began following English racing and I realize how bad Lasix really is for horses, I\'m more aware of these things. That Haskell though it looked easy was a tremendous performance, and in the heat especially a horses\'s energy is drained by the effects of Lasix. You don\'t give that kind of performance and come back three weeks later and repeat it. Just makes me wonder what the hell they were thinking?

[jma11473]

Dana666 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Can\'t help but think two races in three weeks,
> shipping across the county and back again, was
> just insane. Do they even know their horse? It was
> very unfair in my opinion, asking him to do too
> much. Don\'t get me wrong, I really liked Keen Ice
> today, but this horse is way bigger than just
> cashing or not cashing a small bet in one race.
> The purse of 1.25 million is also paltry compared
> to whatever they\'ll get for syndication. So why
> not pick one, Haskell or Travers??? That kind of
> experience can ruin a horse mentally. I\'d be very
> leery of his next couple races, if he even races
> again. You want him in the Breeder\'s Cup? You can
> have him. I mean, he looked like a completely
> different horse in the flesh today compared with
> the Haskell. And on NBC they said he gained
> weight??? I doubt that. I told Victor Espinoza on
> Social media Monday I thought this race might get
> him, and, strangely, he was wasn\'t angry with me
> (later I thought I shouldn\'t have said that to
> him). He agreed this would be his toughest race.
> Am I over analyzing here? Maybe so, but since I
> began following English racing and I realize how
> bad Lasix really is for horses, I\'m more aware of
> these things. That Haskell though it looked easy
> was a tremendous performance, and in the heat
> especially a horses\'s energy is drained by the
> effects of Lasix. You don\'t give that kind of
> performance and come back three weeks later and
> repeat it. Just makes me wonder what the hell they
> were thinking?


The horse has been syndicated already, so what they\'ll get (they meaning Zayat) was decided before this race. If you\'re going to rant, you should at least be aware of that first because it\'s been discussed everywhere. Jerardi even wrote that Coolmore offered Zayat a lump sum to retire the horse now, because any losses or injuries might affect Coolmore\'s future earnings from breeding. Coolmore, not Zayat---his time to enjoy the horse is now.

As far as what \"they\" were thinking, They were thinking they might have an all-time great horse and if they didn\'t run the Travers it would be a mark against him. So they tried it. And they lost. It happens. Happens to almost all of them, actually.

[johnnym]

Zayat wanted to run him all along in the Travers. Biggest thing is they should of shipped him straight to Saratoga after the Haskell..any hiccups you can still scratch him..
Zayat came of like a sore loser yesterday with his comments..

[T Severini]

Two races in Three weeks?

Are you talking the Triple Crown wore him down?

This was AP\'s first race in a month after a pretty easy effort at Monmouth.  Unfortunately, I got hung up in a Fantasy Football draft and missed the chance to ring the bell.

Keen Ice was coming on.  That Haskell was no mirage where Ice closed into a track on a day that was difficult. Still AP hung on and ran for second and my hope when the time came was to count him out. For those with the conviction Saratoga was the right place and time to ring up that winning ticket though.

Noted the come home fraction was over 26.5 seconds. Frosted did the deed on a track that to my eye, (charts), went slow, fast, slow.......real hard to be certain with all the turf racing and the lack of dirt heats late.

When we projected AP\'s defeat this track was one you had to factor. If AP\'s owners get cold feet now, who can blame them. But their horse should relish Keeneland and if they pass they go out losing to Keen Ice a horse many said wasn\'t even in the picture. AP\'s connections need to prove it wasn\'t a fluke!

 Dana666 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Can\'t help but think two races in three weeks,
> shipping across the county and back again, was
> just insane. Do they even know their horse? It was
> very unfair in my opinion, asking him to do too
> much. Don\'t get me wrong, I really liked Keen Ice
> today, but this horse is way bigger than just
> cashing or not cashing a small bet in one race.
> The purse of 1.25 million is also paltry compared
> to whatever they\'ll get for syndication. So why
> not pick one, Haskell or Travers??? That kind of
> experience can ruin a horse mentally. I\'d be very
> leery of his next couple races, if he even races
> again. You want him in the Breeder\'s Cup? You can
> have him. I mean, he looked like a completely
> different horse in the flesh today compared with
> the Haskell. And on NBC they said he gained
> weight??? I doubt that. I told Victor Espinoza on
> Social media Monday I thought this race might get
> him, and, strangely, he was wasn\'t angry with me
> (later I thought I shouldn\'t have said that to
> him). He agreed this would be his toughest race.
> Am I over analyzing here? Maybe so, but since I
> began following English racing and I realize how
> bad Lasix really is for horses, I\'m more aware of
> these things. That Haskell though it looked easy
> was a tremendous performance, and in the heat
> especially a horses\'s energy is drained by the
> effects of Lasix. You don\'t give that kind of
> performance and come back three weeks later and
> repeat it. Just makes me wonder what the hell they
> were thinking?

[pizzalove]

Lets have a bit of a reality check here.  Do I think Zayat pushed Baffert to run in the Travers. Yes.  Was this probably not a great decision. Yes.  I am not a Baffert fan or a Zayat fan especially after yesterday.  But really after winning the Haskell with ease and clearly coasting at the end of an 1 1/8 race, this should of not been a tough race for AP.  He got the perfect set up again.  A horse that constantly gets perfect setups and he did not perform.  

You really need three things to pull off the very difficult task of winning a triple crown:  1. Great racing luck especially with pace scenarios. 2. Preferably a weak field of three year olds that can be dominated. 3. An excellent racehorse(some of the past triple crown winners have been so good they really didn\'t need #1 or #2.)  

In the case of Pharoah, factors #1 and #2 were much larger reasons for AP winning the triple crown then #3.  Remember the Kentucky Derby?  The first three horses nearly crawled the first half mile (47and change) on a day the track was lightning fast. These fractions were the slowest of the day.  After a half mile in the Derby everyone knew one of the first three horses at the half mile would win.  Some people claimed \"the second best derby ever run after secretariat\" Absurd.  Anyone who saw how the track was playing that day saw how the Derby was stolen.  In the Preakness who knows?  Crazy weather.  yet another easy trip.  Monster horse Tale of Verve was second.  And then of course the Belmont.  Same story.  Easy lead, back up, run hard last 3/8ths.  

And how about the quality of horses?  What happened to the heavily hyped, Upstart, Materiality, Dortmund, Frosted.  Best in the group is the late plodding Keen Ice. Looked like a great Derby was about to happen.  Then one of the worst ever.  All this incredible talent was overhyped as well.

I think it is great for the sport to have a triple crown winner.  But this horse is the worst triple crown winner ever as far as ability.  Finally caught just a little bit of pressure today, still with easy fractions and he spit the bit.  Did you see the closing quarter?  

I am sure soon we will hear the story of some type of fake injury so that AP doesn\'t have to run again.  He will get squashed in the classic if he does run.  Zayat is too greedy to risk that.  

So goodbye AP.  Baffert and Zayat will take the cowards way out and instead spin stories for years about your so called greatness.  I just wish AP would do me one last favor as he walks into the sunset.  Take Baffert and Zayat with you.  And Bode too.

[T Severini]

AP was a good horse. A fortunate horse too.

He slugged it out to win a Derby and nothing was left in the Belmont.

The Haskell was made for him and the end of that race foretold the future.

When looking over the fractions and the track conditions, we shouldn\'t lose track of the fact that Monmouth and Saratoga are vastly different surfaces.

The key fraction to my eye in the Travers was that they went 1.35 for a mile after slower earlier marks. Come the last quarter they were gassed. Pharoah ran his race, he just ran into conditions a Baffert trainee is generally going to struggle with.  Guess how many Travers Baffert has won?  One with Point Given to my recollection.

Guess how many Haskell\'s Baffert has won?  5 of 6 or something like that with speedballs. He brings them to Monmouth for a reason.  Add the extra 1/8th, throw in a fair surface and a little pace and that\'s the recipe. This was not unexpected.

So he\'s not a Seattle Slew or a Spectacular Bid, but no one really thought he was.

Now that Keen Ice...he\'s outta Curlin and an Awesome Again mare.  That\'s a racehorse, hope some of you got some of that mutual.

Be kind to Zayat he just had his balloon burst. Hindenburg style. Zayat will show sportsmanship and run again.

[jerry]

It didn\'t look like himself yesterday. He usually looks like he\'s just cruising. Yesterday, he was having to work from the opening bell. He\'s run some hard races this year, 5 negative numbers within the span of 4 months. I think it showed yesterday. This guy needs a vacation.

[jerry]

Zayat? Greed? Ego? All of the above.

[P-Dub]

T Severini Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Two races in Three weeks?
>
> Are you talking the Triple Crown wore him down?

No.  We are talking about the cumulative effects of:

1) Huge efforts
2) Multiple cross country trips.  It is far more taxing shipping from California to the East Coast, than it is for horses already based east of the Mississippi.
3) Huge efforts followed by short rest.

1+2+3= regression. Its TG performance analysis 101.

> This was AP\'s first race in a month after a pretty
> easy effort at Monmouth.  Unfortunately, I got
> hung up in a Fantasy Football draft and missed the
> chance to ring the bell.

Running a -3 isn\'t an easy effort, its the fastest he\'s ever run from a figure standpoint.

Fantasy Football draft. Thankfully, we don\'t have to read about how you picked up Joe Schmoe in the 8th round.  

> Keen Ice was coming on.  That Haskell was no
> mirage where Ice closed into a track on a day that
> was difficult. Still AP hung on and ran for second
> and my hope when the time came was to count him
> out. For those with the conviction Saratoga was
> the right place and time to ring up that winning
> ticket though.

Keen Ice was a point slower than AP\'s figure the last time he fired a -3.  Combine that with the travel, Baffert\'s Spa record, and his reluctance to run him in the first place............agree with you here, those that played Keen Ice had their reasons for doing so.  


> Noted the come home fraction was over 26.5
> seconds. Frosted did the deed on a track that to
> my eye, (charts), went slow, fast, slow.......real
> hard to be certain with all the turf racing and
> the lack of dirt heats late.

Agree.  JB will have work to do coming up with figures for the card.

> When we projected AP\'s defeat this track was one
> you had to factor. If AP\'s owners get cold feet
> now, who can blame them. But their horse should
> relish Keeneland and if they pass they go out
> losing to Keen Ice a horse many said wasn\'t even
> in the picture. AP\'s connections need to prove it
> wasn\'t a fluke!


Baffert wanted to go to Parx (assertion alert), Zayat wanted the Travers. It is a very noble and sporting gesture on his part, and from here whatever he wants to do is fine with me.  The problem with running yesterday, is that it makes for awkward spacing into the next race or 2. Run in 4 weeks at SA then another 5 in the BC after a year long campaign where the colt was shipped all over the place?  Train up to the BC? This horse has had a long and taxing campaign. If they run in the BC, I think training up to it is the thing to do. I believe M Jellish made that point.

I\'ve already said I think we just saw his last race. Hope I\'m wrong.

[Coronado98]

I\'m probably in the minority here, but he ran a great race in defeat.  Frosted pressed him from the backstretch up until he had nothing left and they ran the mile was in 1:35.  Saratoga is a track that punishes runners for going that fast, it happened to Liam\'s Map a few weeks earlier.  The damage was done.  Travers to Classic seems to be the likely outcome of this frenzy.  That\'s not really going out on a limb though.

Keen Ice is a good runner and will probably continue to mature.  His finish kind of reminded of the 2007 JCGC that his sire ran.  He also won picking up more weight than the odds-on chalk.  

Frosted may be better suited for middle distance races from what I\'ve seen in his two efforts at the spa.

[T Severini]

>
> Fantasy Football draft. Thankfully, we don\'t have
> to read about how you picked up Joe Schmoe in the
> 8th round.  
>
>

lol.....yeah, well...

FYI my longshot is Darren Waller in the 16th round.

I would have cashed, though no exotics. Having missed the day, I\'m curious what Big1871 may have done. He was high on Keen Ice improvement also.

Keen Ice was on a career forge and he continued to go forward in my estimation.  Both Upstart and Frosted were -2 history animals if I\'m not mistaken. Ice is the classic late developer, bred to be so, and should be a big factor now if he stays sound.

I agree with your analysis of the Travers and a precocious horse perhaps finding his peers improving. But an owner is first and foremost a Sportsman and one would think he would relish a race at Keeneland to set the record straight.

[ringato3]

Coronado,

Comparing the travers and the whitney pace is silly.  (Being kind and politically correct - a stronger word should be used)

3 year olds Vs older horses
1 1/8 mile vs 1 1/4 miles

In case u still want to compare, it gets \"sillier\".  22.3, 46 flat and 1:09.3

Vs. 24.1. 48.1, 1:11.2

So, the pace was 10 lengths faster to the 1st quarter, 13 lengths faster to the half and 11 lengths faster to the 3/4 mile.

Track variant needs to be factored in, but not sure it is going to ne much different.  

No argument for anybody that says was AP ran gallant in defeat.

Nowhere near running \"great\".  Silly statement.

Rob

[P-Dub]

T Severini Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> >
> > Fantasy Football draft. Thankfully, we don\'t
> have
> > to read about how you picked up Joe Schmoe in
> the
> > 8th round.  
> >
> >
>
> lol.....yeah, well...
>
> FYI my longshot is Darren Waller in the 16th
> round.
>
> I would have cashed, though no exotics. Having
> missed the day, I\'m curious what Big1871 may have
> done. He was high on Keen Ice improvement also.
>
> Keen Ice was on a career forge and he continued to
> go forward in my estimation.  Both Upstart and
> Frosted were -2 history animals if I\'m not
> mistaken. Ice is the classic late developer, bred
> to be so, and should be a big factor now if he
> stays sound.
>
> I agree with your analysis of the Travers and a
> precocious horse perhaps finding his peers
> improving. But an owner is first and foremost a
> Sportsman and one would think he would relish a
> race at Keeneland to set the record straight.

Keen Ice does have a very nice forging line, and I can\'t disagree with your opinion on him.

[T Severini]

?

Coronado is wrong about AP\'s effort because he\'s comparing different fractional times at a different distance in a different age class? I thought that\'s what we do?

AP could run against olders, to this point he\'s just not been inclined to.

With the Whitney, you\'ve got another card in the Saratoga summer surrounded by Turf races.

Historically, that 2:01:50 was a darn good Travers time. What did you think you were gonna get with an AP victory, 1:59:20?

It was a game effort. A.P was under real pressure and feelin the heat because the pressure was coming from the outside and looking him in the eye. In the Derby AP got his favored path. This time, he got the pressure applied to him and his peers are now a little stouter. I thought Frosted\'s jockey made a very good tactical decision.

Those were pretty good efforts by Frosted and Upstart too. Forget about the track speed. No one will figure that with precision upon either day.

AP ran his race. He wasn\'t off and it would be a false pretense to claim such as justification to not race again.

[ringato3]

Chuckles (once aptly named the denizen of the redboard room - perhaps by richieb)

Nobody handicaps better after the race is over than you.

Coronado is wrong for saying AP got cooked on the pace like Liam\'s map.

He just got beat.  Pace was just ok.   Slow early, fast middle.  

Liam was fast all the way the first 3/4 of a mile.

Pace ain\'t the excuse.

Rob