Belmont possibles

[T Severini]

I\'m hoping for the heavy Sandy. The Good Grade I horse winning in 2:03 and change for 10 furlongs Sandy. That\'s the Sandy I want to see. The demanding, energy sapping, stride altering Sandy. The Sandy where Greatness is confirmed and the Sandy where Wouldabeen, shouldabeen, couldabeen are often exposed. Or worse yet.

You know, we\'ve got to be leery though, because AP just beat a maiden by 7 lengths. Sure, Firing Line and Dortmund both confirmed that they exited the Derby with issues. We know that now, though we had some clues before the race. Nevertheless, we sent them into the Preakness to do battle and they were not up to the task. A career 12 runner was clearly second best.

We\'ve had a lot of the better horses go off form this Triple Crown season. That has inured greatly to the benefit of having a Triple Crown winner this year. Upstart was not a \"one time\" nice fig horse. Don\'t think he had what\'s now on AP\'s resume, but Upstart\'s absence in the first two legs certainly made it easier for AP to be positioned where he now is.

Ding, Ding, Ding... it\'s also round three. We have some of the higher quality animals returning for this one. If one suspected that Firing Line and Dortmund were over the top going into the Preakness, what was left in that race? Not very much.

Guess there\'s two camps in this event. The \"AP is awesome and a Triple Crown winner camp\". And the \"I can beat AP at odds on and cash greedy camp.\"

There\'s some concerns. Remember Baffert\'s Silver Charm and Real Quiet? Those two were right there for the Triple Crown. I respect Baffert, though he is getting a little loopy in his old age, and I\'m worried he may keep AP together for one more. The latter camp is hoping for a War Emblem type result however. But at least we are here now. We got to the tough test without AP already surrendering the opportunity for the upset.

Cash Greedy

miff Wrote:
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> Pretty much an assumption that Frosted entrapped
> in the FOY, was never confirmed. Besides procedure
> several changes,including jock, were made to
> Frosted pre-Wood and horse responded well then ok
> derby followed.Most notable, take back further and
> make a late run.
>
> Frosted only Belmont entrant with a race over
> surface which was a good one, a nice edge.Nasty
> Belmont surface causes many horses to run down,not
> an easy surface. Baffert threw out a hint when
> talking to NYRA about hoping the surface would be
> like when Secretariat ran, not a chance.

[ringato3]

P-dub

Sorry.   I had u pegged for a \"west coast\", \"zenyatta was faster and better than rachel\" and \"mike smith doesan\' t go THAT wide\" kind of guy

Rob

[P-Dub]

ringato3 Wrote:
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> P-dub
>
> Sorry.   I had u pegged for a \"west coast\",
> \"zenyatta was faster and better than rachel\" and
> \"mike smith does t go THAT wide\" kind of guy
>
> Rob


Lol. Good one.

[flushedstraight]

Simple (maybe not) question for Ask The Experts

Many similarities between Materiality and Summer Bird and a few maybe big differences... Who has(had) a better pattern going into the Belmont?

Facts:
both unraced at 2
both 3 starts then derby then belmont
both tops in derby prep and regression in derby
SB first start 7 weeks later (less spacing into derby)
SB top a 7.5 pt leap
Mat top a 2.75 pt hop
Mat top of neg 2 is 3 pts faster than SB top
Mat derby regression larger at 4 pts with SB at 1.75 pts

https://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/bel2009.pdf

Note any Mat excuses in derby is not relevant to question; he ran a 2
Several angles to consider re Mat but this is striclcty about the TG pattern

[TGJB]

Nice. And brings back good memories.

[SoCalMan2]

TGJB Wrote:
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> Nice. And brings back good memories.


Summer Bird brings back bad memories for me.  I used him a lot in the Derby with Pioneerof The Nile.  And whenever friends would ask for a long shot in that Derby, I said \"Summer Bird.\"

I came up empty handed in the race, but several friends came to me in subsequent days thanking me for the great pick and telling me that I must have made a ton since I told them to bet Pioneerof the nile with the \"Bird\" horse longshot.

[T Severini]

flushedstraight Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Simple (maybe not) question for Ask The Experts
>
> Many similarities between Materiality and Summer
> Bird and a few maybe big differences... Who
> has(had) a better pattern going into the Belmont?
>
> Facts:
> both unraced at 2
> both 3 starts then derby then belmont
> both tops in derby prep and regression in derby
> SB first start 7 weeks later (less spacing into
> derby)
> SB top a 7.5 pt leap
> Mat top a 2.75 pt hop
> Mat top of neg 2 is 3 pts faster than SB top
> Mat derby regression larger at 4 pts with SB at
> 1.75 pts
>
> https://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/bel2009.p
> df
>
> Note any Mat excuses in derby is not relevant to
> question; he ran a 2
> Several angles to consider re Mat but this is
> striclcty about the TG pattern


Not relevant to the question?  Did I highlight the question properly?  To deny any relevancy would appear to leave one on somewhat of an island. An island without much available for sustenance.

I thought a 2 in the circumstances was close to outstanding and wouldn\'t dream of making a pattern read on one of the subject horses upon that trip. Bad Trips, i.e. Wide Trips get scored for Patterns, but run impeded trips, especially out of character run impeded trips don\'t fit well into formulating a Pattern Read.

If that\'s the correlation you\'re seeing, maybe it will work out for you.

I don\'t see any pattern significance because I don\'t believe the 2 is representative.

[miff]

Irad Ortiz named to ride Mubtahjiid, perfect fit for the horse.Wide Mikey named on Frammento, also good fit.

[joemama]

Todd Pletcher seems to make up for his failures in the Kentucky Derby with very good performances in the Belmont Stakes, of late.

[miff]

Mike Welsch:

The two horses many feel have the best chancing of preventing American Pharoah from winning theTriple Crown, MATERIALITY and FROSTED, worked within five minutes of one another after the renovation break at Belmont Park

Materiality, with regular work mate STANFORD providing him with ample company, went five furlongs in :59;81, the pair completing their final quarter in 22.65 before galloping out six furongs in 1:12.04, seven eighths in 1:25.74 and up a mile in 1:40.76.  Both looks very solid with Materiality slightly best of the team.

Frosted worked inside Godolphin Mile winner Tamarkuz(pointing for Met Mile), the team going five furlongs in 1:01.56 with Frosted nearest the inside, under slightly more urging to the wire. The team galloped out six furlongs in 1:13.64 then pulled up before completing seven-eighths.

[flushedstraight]

If the 2011 Belmont is any indication,
Castellano is worth 6+ lengths over Rosario

It doesn\'t help Frosted\'s case that his 3 negative #\'s were all earned with W--I--D--E trips

To paraphrase an ex-prez:
There\'s an old saying in Tennessee,
screw me once, shame on... shame on Joel
screw me... you can\'t get screwed again

[joemama]

Gary Stevens rides according to Dallas Stewart.

[T Severini]

I\'ll tell you miff, that Stanford can run a lick. Pletcher needs to enter him as well.

[T Severini]

Kinda like the Belmont you chose. The Favorite missed all the exotics.

Also remember the ex prez, another clear example of Murphy\'s Law or \"Its so much better to be lucky than good\". That was a peach quote of his though.

Another of my favorites was when he was caught on film trying to draw chuckles while he looked under chairs at a White House party stating, \"No WMD\'s there\". Never occurred to him he\'d sent our youth over there to face what they faced.

Sounds like you caught some Rosario wide on Brilliant Speed. Don\'t see Castellano\'s name in the entries yet though.

flushedstraight Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If the 2011 Belmont is any indication,
> Castellano is worth 6+ lengths over Rosario
>
> It doesn\'t help Frosted\'s case that his 3 negative
> #\'s were all earned with W--I--D--E trips
>
> To paraphrase an ex-prez:
> There\'s an old saying in Tennessee,
> screw me once, shame on... shame on Joel
> screw me... you can\'t get screwed again

[joemama]

Spectacular Bid seems to be the best horse to NOT have won the triple crown.  I guess mostly because this horse raced after loosing the Belmont Stakes.  It seems that the plans have already been laid for American Pharoah win or loose.  My gut tells me to hope that that horse looses for that reason alone.  In other words I can\'t whole heartedly root for a horse who is not being pointed after the next month to be a racehorse.