Belmont possibles

[T Severini]

Because Materiality missed the break and Upstart did not fire at all.

The Talking Heads are all over the \"California Horses\" this season but I\'m not with them. I thought that the clear best race of the Triple Crown Prep season was the Florida Derby run over a demanding track. No other prep race compared, it\'s just that the previous race is only an indicator for the next one.

It didn\'t work out.

Run it again!

toppled Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Why would you want to torture yourself and have
> them run the Derby over again.  If they could,
> then American Pharoah would just keep beating you
> over & over again. He wasn\'t in the more
> vulnerable position he is in the Belmont, because
> he had only 2 easy races going in. Now he\'s being
> asked to race his 3rd race in 5 weeks off another
> race only 3 weeks prior to his Derby. If he loses
> it will be from fatigue & possibly the distance,
> not because some horse you though was better than
> him when he was in the 1st pointed to race & least
> likely to lose got what you believe was a
> compromised trip.    The best horse won the Derby,
> the best horse won the Preakness. He\'s the best
> horse in Belmont, but how much juice is left in
> the lemon?  We\'ll find out soon enough.
> Anyone who still thinks he could have been beaten
> in the Derby by any one of the other horses hasn\'t
> learned anything from the 1st 2 legs of the Triple
> Crown.

[ringato3]

Toppled,

there is almost NOTHING to be learned from the Preakness.  Zippo.  Assume this isn\'t your first rodeo and u understand what sloppy tracks do to races how the figures coming out of such races always need to be viewed that through that lens.

AP proved in the Oaklawn race that he loves the slop.  He ran to it in the Preakness.  If we get slop at Belmont, that would matter, otherwise, not so much....

If you believed after the Derby that AP was far and away the best of this class, then the Preakness reconfirmed it for you.

If you believed after the Derby that AP was a very good horse, but not far and away the best of this class and potentially vulnerable at short prices, the Preakness should not dissuade you, unless you want to attack him on a wet track in the future..

Rob

[miff]

Pretty much an assumption that Frosted entrapped in the FOY, was never confirmed. Besides procedure several changes,including jock, were made to Frosted pre-Wood and horse responded well then ok derby followed.Most notable, take back further and make a late run.

Frosted only Belmont entrant with a race over surface which was a good one, a nice edge.Nasty Belmont surface causes many horses to run down,not an easy surface. Baffert threw out a hint when talking to NYRA about hoping the surface would be like when Secretariat ran, not a chance.

[ringato3]

Yes, he said that.  I think he put a caveat out there that it was his own opinion (at least I hope he did).

I spent 30 minutes on the web after I read that post and found NOTHING to support his view.  

I know he is a horse owner and a respected and revered board member, but it seems he is a bit on a limb about that procedure \"not holding\" or \"Only working for one race\".

I would find a different reason to not like Frosted, besides that viewpoint that the procedure may not hold.  

Rob

[miff]

Rob,

Jim is correct,sometimes procedure does not hold.Again, it was never conclusive that Frosted entrapped in the first place. Since the procedure is easy, it was done as a precaution.

Far more telling to me was the new strategy change to take Frosted further back in the Wood.That as opposed to his closer up tactics in the 2 Florida races where he did not finish with any late punch at all,kinda hung late in one race,kinda stopped in the other.

Mike

[joemama]

Couple of things.

The procedure originally referenced by Jim C., I believe was not the procedure that Frosted actually had.(llewellyn) Here\'s a link to a description of the different procedures and gives some historical prespective.

http://www.vet.cornell.edu/Zweig/projects/ducharmewoodie02.cfm

[ringato3]

Mike,

I hear you.  I did read that Kiaran said they did the procedure despite any proof the horse needed it.

Yes, a complete \"make over\" for the Wood.  Dropped further back, new jockey and the procedure.

To me, the hardest horse to read of the contenders.  I hear your view point that dropping further back than usual to increase his \"punch\" could have been the key.  But I am assuming you saw the earlier race where he inhaled the leader with Ortiz like a statue turning for home, then stopped like he was shot.  It sure looks like a horse that had trouble getting air.  He want from a sure winner to stopping on a dime.

If I don\'t believe the surgery helped, and it was the race tactics, then i also have to believe he had to be perfectly ridden to get the 1 1/8 and has little shot to get the 1 1/2.  

Rosario another X factor.  I know he has never been popular on this board, but last year I thought he was an up and coming \"muscle\" rider, who would learn finesse and become great. He took a HUGE STEP BACKWARDS this year.  Hard to believe how poorly he rode at Gulfstream.  Since when did \"miss the break, rush up 7 wide with a middle move to brush to the lead like they do at Yonkers or the Meadowlands\" become a winning move.  Or get blocked in 40% of your turf races.  Was waiting to read the announcement that he was getting divorced or checking into a rehab clinic.  The riding was that bad IMO. That said, he appears to be coming out of it a bit the last few weeks, riding a bit more like his old self.

On a related note, becoming hard to not use Javier in turf races.  Starting to remind me of Ramon, who I will always think was the best of his generation, but never got his due because he didn\'t travel to ride the big names.

Rob

[toppled]

Materiality was a bad play: Inexperience & the fact that a Pletcher horse who runs a negative prep right before the Derby is paramutual death in the Derby.  
Upstart was sick a few weeks before the Derby.  They can deny it all they want but if you want to think Upstart threw a bad race in and it had nothing to do with the infection, you\'re reaching.
 
So, if you could turn back the clock to 5/2/15 & run it again I\'ll take AP over the inexperienced, recent Pletcher negative # Materiality & the recently sick Upstart (who now that you have the hindsight should know his illness affected him on Derby day) every time.  I\'ll also take him against Firing Line & Dortmund too, who for whatever excuse you want to make, couldn\'t get near him in the Preakness.  Run the Derby 100 times under the same conditions and AP wins at least 95 of those times.  

The best pre Derby race was run when they were 2YOs.  The Frontrunner, run at Santa Anita last September.  Just because it was run last year, you ignored it. One could see there that AP was special in the Frontrunner.  He beats Texas Red who destroyed them all next out in the BC Juvenile, Calculator, who went on to win the Sham and San Vicente winner Lord Nelson. That was 3 subsequent graded stakes winners AP beat.      

So keep running the Derby over again & you\'ll lose every time with your 2 horses because those 5 times out of 100 that I mentioned above would be to either Dortmund or Firing Line.

[ringato3]

Toppled,

You answered my earlier question.  this IS your first rodeo.

AP wins at least 95 out of 100 Derbies.

Yes.  He would be 1-20......

Welcome the parimutuel pools.  Please stay for a long time and do well in what business career you have.....

Rob

[miff]

Rob,

Rule of thumb is once a horse overcomes what is a known issue, leave it to rest. There are so many horses with issues which players know nothing about.If they did,they\'d go nuts trying to figure it all out.That is the main reason those running the game, esp in NY,are reluctant to fully disclose the medical records of all horses entered to run each day...a tough call imo.

Re riders,still believe something changed with Rosario,could not ride that bad.Re Castellano, riding best of all, on many Chad Brown cadillac turfers, a whole other story.

Mike

[P-Dub]

ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Toppled,
>
> You answered my earlier question.  this IS your
> first rodeo.
>
> AP wins at least 95 out of 100 Derbies.
>
> Yes.  He would be 1-20......
>
> Welcome the parimutuel pools.  Please stay for a
> long time and do well in what business career you
> have.....
>
> Rob

He was just responding to why he felt AP was the best horse, and I agree with him.  Chuckles hates to be wrong, so will come up with ridiculous points even when he is wrong. I read a similar rant when Bodemeister lost the Derby, Smith rode a poor race and should have taken back.  With a pure speed horse. Brilliant.

Materiality no foundation off a very fast race, Upstart was sick.  Those are facts, and aren\'t exactly the preparation you want going into the Derby.

Mentioning the FrontRunner was accurate, AP beat 3 very nice colts.

People can make any excuse they want after a loss, it helps them deal with being wrong.  It doesn\'t necessarily mean that the excuses were the reason for a loss.

AP may not win 95 out of 100, just hyperbole.  His point is the best horse won, and would win more than any other horse. Hard to argue that after watching what he has done over his career.

Many reasons a horse doesn\'t fire his best fig in a race, but that doesn\'t mean they should have won.

[ringato3]

Paul,

I am not defending chuckles\' point.  let him do that.

But you, of all people, shouldn\'t be criticizing backers of either Upstart of Materiality.  I say \"you of all people\", because I have come on the board many times over the past couple years (mostly as a lurker) and saw you post about picking some horse that frankly I thought had no shot, because you like to beat favorites.  (and some of your picks have won while you looked for \"value\".

Upstart, at 19-1 or whatever he was in the Derby, and Materiality, at 14-1, were bets I would take every day of the week and twice on Sunday.  Yep, they lost.  I don\'t have to be right every time when I am looking at horses like that.  You have to be right almost every time when you want to bet horses that are odds on.  

Upstart being \"sick\".  I don\'t know.  I thought TGJB was lobbying them to run in the Preakness?  He had a nice sheet, great 2 year old foundation and fast numbers to run to, as well as spacing.  He was horrible  on Derby day.  It happens.  

Materiality was faster than AP heading into the Derby.  On ALL NUMBERS.  Not just one or two figure makers.  I would have agreed that if he was a short price, with Pletcher\'s record and the lack of 2 year old foundation, he would be a bet against, but at 15-1, those things were MORE THAN FACTORED into the price.  he stumbled out of the gate and ran OK afterwards.

And nobody that understands this game should ever say that a horse would win the Derby 95 times out of 100.  That is right up there with the guy who said yesterday that Frosted undoubtedly ran the best race in the Derby, with the \"eye test\".

Silly stuff.

Good luck

Rob

[toppled]

The way I understand the game, they only run a race once. Not over & over again to give the losers another shot. In the race they ran, American Pharoah won 100% of the time. That\'s the real world.  As P-Dub put more eloquently than I did, the 95% was just hyperbole.  

Materiality was 11.5-1.  Since you brought up the math, Pletcher 1 for 41 going in. That\'s a 2.44% win % and considering how bad his record is on tops before the Derby that go negative, anyone taking 11.5/1 will die a quick paramutual death betting horses like that.  As far as faster on all numbers, since this is a TG board I won\'t get into others, but let\'s just say Vito wouldn\'t agree with you.  So Materiality had a top a point faster than AP, AP had a much stronger foundation to run another negative going in.  I don\'t read a 4, 0.75, -2 as a horse whose 11.5/1 odds in an 18 horse field with a bad inside post are all that great especially with his trainer\'s history of big last Derby prep & fizzle in the Derby factored in. I got suckered into Bandini in 2005-never again on a Pletcher Derby horse with the last big fig.  

As far as Upstart, we couldn\'t know until he ran what effect the illness 3 weeks earlier had. It\'s much easier to say Materiality was a bad bet than Upstart, since the X before the race wasn\'t clear.  But in hindsight, knowing what he did after says that there was no way he was running his race that day. Anyone who in his dreams wants the race run over again certainly wouldn\'t want to back Upstart on 5/2/15.  Now after that, with more recovery time and further away from the illness, I can understand someone wanting to race him ASAP off the non effort.

BTW: You post some very good stuff & I enjoy reading what you write, but defending a Materiality bet isn\'t your top notch stuff.

[Tavasco]

P-Dub:

I commend you on a cogent level headed objective post. Having witnessed your occasional \"excitable boy\" side. When I saw that you had responded here, my first thought was oh boy here we go!

Instead I find myself having the emotional response to the Materiality hawkers. I just don\'t understand their infatuation and moreover the desire to promote him? I suppose it is Camp Florida.

I\'m curious why the horse didn\'t race @ two?

Hard to be certain when Upstart began to experience his illness and beating him is Materiality\'s primary claim to fame other than the clock which is ? authority here to whit:

Florida Derby #\'s developed from an unusual condition and don\'t appear to have held up. Just based on Derby results.

Lastly, my opinion is if Materiality is a confirmed front runner as someone posted (when embellishing his late gain in the derby) by definition he would not have gained ground late. Consequently he is not as I believe Miff pointed out a proven need to lead type. Therefore his Derby was as ordinary as it looked. Materiality as 2nd betting choice I will believe it when I see it. Note by definitions assertions have no rational just forceful opinions.

I\'ll take Tale of Verve over Materiality. Which is interesting because the bounce forecasters will be beside themselves. I say Verve was and still is in peak condition (until I hear different) This Dallas Stewart angle has become the best angle in the TC.

Go Warriors!

[big18741]

The Dallas Stewart angle where they don\'t pick their feet up in the next TC race after they run huge is every bit as strong.

See Macho Again,Golden Soul,Commanding Curve in their Belmont stakes.