Belmont possibles

[jbelfior]

I don\'t have any friends Jerry. Will buy you a steak at Capital Grille in lower Manhattan if he does.


Good Luck,
Joe B

[mjellish]

What makes you say Frosted was the best horse on Derby Day?  Because he was closing fast?

If that\'s the case, my answer would be to say if he was 12-13 out of it early and only made up 8 in the end that doesn\'t make him the best horse.  And the extra 1/4 mile in the Belmont usually hurts, not helps, the closers.

To my eye, in both the Derby and the Preakness, AP was the best horse.  And he won.

[ringato3]

Pizza,

As a guy who sort of likes Frosted and will be playing him in the Belmont as my second horse behind Materiality, your statement is still \"silly\".  (there are more accurate but less politically correct ones)

He ran OK in the Derby.  I would agree that the \"backwards move\" on figures has to be looked at through the lens of the trip, which was less than ideal, and the fact that other than he and Materiality, nobody else made up ground.  What does that mean?  It could mean he ran well, but it could also mean that on that day the top 3 were better than everybody else by quite a bit and that is why they were alone at the end.

Make no mistake about it, the race Frosted ran in the Derby ain\'t getting it done in the Belmont, unless none of the fast ones show up or run their race.  He has to run back to his Wood, or a race very similar to it.

Rob

[moosepalm]

pizzalove Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Whether you use Beyer figures or Tg figures or a
> combination of both.  there are no absolutes here.
>  you have to look how the race was run.  Frosted
> quite simply was the best horse on Derby day.  the
> eye test wins.


JB, you can cancel the seminar now.

[T Severini]

pizzalove Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Whether you use Beyer figures or Tg figures or a
> combination of both.  there are no absolutes here.
>  you have to look how the race was run.  Frosted
> quite simply was the best horse on Derby day.  the
> eye test wins.


No comment upon the premise, other than AP seems to be earning figures regardless of how the race is run. However, want to comment upon Frosted.

First off, it sure looks like AP is gonna \"weather\" at Churchill Down\'s again. Baffert is saying the horse if tired after the Preakness. He certainly was full of energy in his last gallop for the Preakness despite being reported tired after the Derby. His Granddad won the Belmont, but the Big Sandy isn\'t for every horse. It\'s generally as deep or deeper and sandier than Churchill Downs.

Back to Frosted, his trainer has won the Belmont with a horse having a Deputy Minister broodmare sire. Jazil was his name. That trainer is Belmont based and I\'d like to see Frosted fire a work that says he\'ll be more forwardly placed. He\'s fast enough, but he needs to stay in touch.

[jp702006]

If Frosted runs, I think his only trip is to stalk in 3rd or 4th. I believe his derby trip was a function of many thinking it was going to be a hot pace so he sat back. I was all in on Frosted in the Derby and will be again in the Belmont if he trains accordingly.

Patrick

[Tavasco]

Upon review of Frosted\'s (upon whom I had a futures bet) I\'m at best a dubious fan of his now but IMO it is no stretch to be optimistic about him.

His CD chart indicate he was rank and resisted being wrangled back early. One could also speculate he was affected by AP\'s dash for early position.

Certainly he is a reasonable candidate to hit the board but where? He made a nice move on the turn and wide but leveled off in the stretch with Dortmunds increasing fade flattering his late effort.

The next quarter mile is mostly guesswork wondering if Rosario gets a repeat call? In a 1+1/4 race with a horse that wants to run its hard to imagine such an abundance of patience and then the split second decision to go around everyone on the last turn?

Knowing more about the throat procedure would be helpful. Covello has spoken an don\'t expect more until the eve of destruction. Any Vets left?

[T Severini]

Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Upon review of Frosted\'s (upon whom I had a
> futures bet) I\'m at best a dubious fan of his now
> but IMO it is no stretch to be optimistic about
> him.
>
> His CD chart indicate he was rank and resisted
> being wrangled back early. One could also
> speculate he was affected by AP\'s dash for early
> position.
>
> Certainly he is a reasonable candidate to hit the
> board but where? He made a nice move on the turn
> and wide but leveled off in the stretch with
> Dortmunds increasing fade flattering his late
> effort.
>
> The next quarter mile is mostly guesswork
> wondering if Rosario gets a repeat call? In a
> 1+1/4 race with a horse that wants to run its hard
> to imagine such an abundance of patience and then
> the split second decision to go around everyone on
> the last turn?
>
> Knowing more about the throat procedure would be
> helpful. Covello has spoken an don\'t expect more
> until the eve of destruction. Any Vets left?


Pretty sure Frosted had the throat procedure between the Fountain of Youth and Wood Memorial.

So since the surgery he\'s won the Wood in nice fashion and finished a fast closing fourth in the Kentucky Derby. He was having a little trouble with Upstart in Florida, but that was pre surgery and if Upstart is sound he\'s gonna prove how good a horse he is. Just wish they\'d run that Derby again.

[tommydw2000]

If it does rain AP will be nearly impossible to beat!

[alydar61]

Pretty sure the procedure was the same that Alysheba had just prior to the Derby and Blue Grass for a displaced palate. The Blue Grass was 10 days out then.

Was all in on Frosted for the Derby, and for many reasons, not just that one.

I\'m hoping he runs, but will want to see some positives before.

[Tavasco]

Thanks,

My concern revolves around Covello\'s post (weeks back) on the subject in which I understood him to say that in his view this surgical fix doesn\'t always last and in fact lasts less often than not.

[joemama]

The trainer stated that the procedure was called a lewellyn (named after the Dr. Llewellyn) procedure.  Not that that clears anything up. Maybe that procedure has a higher success rate than a different approach to accomplishing the same thing. Can google llewellyn procedure.

[Tavasco]

Will Do!

Thanks

[Tavasco]

JM: That you enjoyed my camp out made my day. Late night does get kind of slow.

One of the several articles linked below. I did not find any reference to the procedures efficacy wearing off or minimizing over time. However some reports claim 60% others 70% success. Not clear if that means long term or 1st take? I\'ll do a little more research later.

The primary risk seems to be infection which they say is easily treated later. A 15 min outpatient procedure. Seems simple enough.

A concern but less than a fear. If they add a red white and blue nasal strip all will be fine.


Llewellyn

[toppled]

Why would you want to torture yourself and have them run the Derby over again.  If they could, then American Pharoah would just keep beating you over & over again. He wasn\'t in the more vulnerable position he is in the Belmont, because he had only 2 easy races going in. Now he\'s being asked to race his 3rd race in 5 weeks off another race only 3 weeks prior to his Derby. If he loses it will be from fatigue & possibly the distance, not because some horse you though was better than him when he was in the 1st pointed to race & least likely to lose got what you believe was a compromised trip.    The best horse won the Derby, the best horse won the Preakness. He\'s the best horse in Belmont, but how much juice is left in the lemon?  We\'ll find out soon enough.
Anyone who still thinks he could have been beaten in the Derby by any one of the other horses hasn\'t learned anything from the 1st 2 legs of the Triple Crown.