Belmont possibles

[miff]

American Phar

Materiality

Carpe Diem

Madefromlucky

Frosted

Muqtajib

Tale Of Verve

Frammento

Keens Ice

[ringato3]

Materiality, frosted and carpe dieM are a solid triumvirate.

There can be no crowing about lack of competition if AP beats that field.  

Think the order will be a bit too tall for him, but that is a race I am already looking forward to.

Rob

[Silver Charm]

Materiality holds the key. Probably the only horse who can out sprint AP early. Otherwise its AP\'s race to lose.

They will probably scrap up one or two more for this field because there will be some people who say they just want to be there. Its becoming a big weekend 3-day spectacle now and NYRA does deserve some credit for that. The undercard will once again like last year be awesome. No rain please!!!!

[Fairmount1]

Mr. Z surely deserves a chance.....

[miff]

That seems to be the consensus except AP drubbed all of them in the derby.Much made of Materiality\'s early trouble but afterwards he made little impact, pretty much the same for Frosted. Both internals weak vs AP\'s in Derby.

Baffert thinks AP wins Belmont if he can repeat either his Derby or Preakness but admitted a tall order.

[ringato3]

Miff,

To each his own view, but IMHO materiality being A serious threat to AP has nothing to do with the derby.   I am a believer that when a speed horse blows a start, I really don\'t care how he runs the rest of the race.   When the race is the derby and he blows the start, even more so. To me, the reason materiality has a strong shot are the races before the derby.   Florida derby was fast on all figs and he beat a good horse and did it the right way.   He ran two 1 1/8 races really and is well bred for the Belmont distance, if such a thing exists with the current breed.   He gets rest and as much as I hate to say it, the Belmont is the race Pletcher gets his horses to run in.

To a lesser degree, race dynamics make frosted a contender.   Materiality can\'t let AP get too loose.   He will have to attend the pace.   Pletcher has a history of believing the Belmont is best run on or near the lead. Palace malice pushed a fast pace.    Commissioner, a slow horse at the time, pushed the pace.   Further back, Pletcher had Dunkirk, another non speed horse on the lead.    Frosted would be the beneficiary if the pace got a bit hot.   (At least the fastest of the potential beneficiaries)

Fascinating race.

Rob

[johnnym]

Belmont has not been to kind to closers lately..

[miff]

Rob,

Being bred for a distance means little to me. Materiality\'s furthest win was 1 1/8th, his derby performance common,trouble or not. If Materiality is one dimensional speed(don\'t buy that) then why isn\'t he a perfect target for AP, already proven at longer distances than any other entrant.

If I\'m gonna look to beat AP it\'s because of regression, none of these are outrunning AP if he shows up near his best at 12f.

Next 3 weeks pretty key for contenders. TAP\'s Belmont trainees not exactly wowing observers right now.

Mike

[ringato3]

Miff

We will agree to disagree.   Materiality not one dimensional speed.   A stalker/pace presser. Blows start in 18 horse field and was at back of pack turning for home, not where a pace presser wants to be.  U want to use that as assessment of his 1 1/4 capabilities, so be it.   He gets a mulligan here.  

Not training or looking well before the race a different story.   That would be a problem.

Felt before derby that materiality florida derby win was most impressive and fastest of prep races.  

Price will be right.  Have to play him.

Good luck

Rob

[jbelfior]

Assuming that\'s the field, my hunch is that TAP sends Carpe Diem to the lead. AP tracks with Materiality not far off of him.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[bellsbendboy]

Out sprint the freak for the lead? Zero chance. bbb

[ringato3]

BBB,

There is no sprinting to the lead in the Belmont.   Pretty sure any horse being sent can make the lead.  (Commissioner cut it last year)

It is a different kind of race.   Jockeys and trainers know it.

Tactics will be very interesting.  

Let\'s just hope they all run.   Word is Kiaran may be changing his mind on frosted.  Which would be disappointing.  He is an interesting horse in the race, whether u like him or not.

Rob

[miff]

Ring wrote

\"Word is Kiaran may be changing his mind on frosted\"

Because he\'s another horse out of the derby that is not impressing anyone watching him at Belmont. Frosted very average looking physically, would not be shocked if he did not go in Belmont, hope he does as he looks a key player.Wonder if the Wood was his 15 minutes of fame.

Everyone aiming at Pharoah being knocked out but it seems none of the Derby runners have come out too well except Pharoah.Contenders training at Belmont are not exactly full of beans right now but 3 weeks could change that as most being  trained easy.

Belmont distance has been somewhat a haven for slugs and there are quite a few in this years race, Frammento, Tale Of Verve, Keen Ice, Muqtajib, Madefromlucky(that\'s the super!)

[big18741]

Keen Ice would be the slug that finds his way onto my tickets.

Best sheet for a new top and enough trouble in the Derby to cost him a check for 5th.

[moosepalm]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> Belmont distance has been somewhat a haven for
> slugs and there are quite a few in this years
> race,

A few have actually won the race.  It\'s not exactly \"last horse standing\" because some stellar horses have won, but as you suggest, many find their way into the verticals.