Belmont possibles

[oumemoires]

are these the same sources that told you american pharoah looked like \"death\" on friday?

[miff]

Our,

Read it again, carefully,re American Pharoah. Those were rumors, those watching the horses train at Belmont do it every day and only say what they see.

Mike

[oumemoires]

According to the demographics of Long Island, those sources most likely belong to  two ethnic groups,neither of which have histories as glorious horsemen.

There is a Hungarian club on East 82nd street - go ask one of those dudes to be your physicality expert.

Give me a \"Hülegü with the Works\" and I am a lifelong customer.

[miff]

Prefer Brunowiththeworks!

[oumemoires]

asking an Italian what he thinks about a horse is like asking an American what he thinks about paying for something without a credit card

[miff]

Don\'t get the Italian thing but work reports have become very important to a fair number of gamblers.

[richiebee]

Instead of continuing your bigoted unfunny spew, why not look up the
accomplishments of Hirsch Jacobs and Walter Blum. Nick Zito isn\'t what he used to
be, but he and the late Johnny Campo forgot more about horses than you will ever
know.

I\'m sure if I want the lowdown on a crippled carriage horse with a flowerpot on
its head, I\'ll be sure to head to that Hungarian club on the UES.

And by the way, both of my paternal grandparents emigrated from Hungary.

If you ever owned a horse, the description of your jockey\'s raiment in the program
might be as follows: White robe, pointed cap, \"KKK\" emblem.

[oumemoires]

i didnt know that Hulegu Khan was a member of the aryan race?
sounds like one of those theories promoted by the Arrow cross party in Hungary from the 1930s

[MonmouthGuy]

You never heard of Overdose, the Hungarian Seabiscuit?

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/20/world/europe/20hungary.html?_r=0

Egészségedre!

[TGJB]

The fate of this entire thread is hanging by a... thread.

[ringato3]

Miff,

I do believe there are a number of people who are \"aiming at American Pharaho being knocked out\" and therefore gonna just wager against him.

I guess this is where I draw a significant difference between this Belmont and the one with Big Brown.  Big Brown couldn\'t lose that Belmont unless he X\'ed and didn\'t run.  IMO a bet against him was just a bet hoping he would fall apart and be off the board because of the grind of the campaign, foot problems, etc.etc.  Personally, I can\'t make those kind of bets.  (not saying there is anything wrong with them, sounds like TGJB did, boxing the whole field except him and the winner). Bu i can\'t.

But in this Belmont, AP can run a good race and lose.  (again my opinion).  I haven\'t read any credible attack anywhere that says the TG negative 2 or the Beyer 110 figure for Materiality in the florida Derby wasn\'t a real number or is questionable.  AP hasn\'t run a Beyer like that yet and his big TG fig Derby was a bit ground loss loaded off a comfortable stalking trip off of two speeds.  I get your view that Materiality\'s DEerby was \"common\".  And I agree it was.  But I am giving a mulligan off the bad start and off the 5 weeks rest into the belmont, if he trains well, he is a serious contender.  Frosted, who ran his big figure in the Wood, is again, almost as fast as AP.  I am more skeptical of Frosted, particularly because I am less comfortable with the Wood figure (not saying anybody got it wrong, but the second place horse was a bit of a slug, whereas in the florida Derby Materiality was putting away a fast horse in Upstart, who was on the better part of the track that day - despite Rick Violette\'s whining about the trip).

Now, you want to add in the conspiracy factor and that Pletcher will have 3 horses, two of which are capable of pushing a pace and we get the possibility of a Smarty like Belmont.....

I am not a conspiracy theory guy, but it would not poor tactics by Pletcher to send one and have other sit right off.  (talking Materiality and Carpe Diem)

Rob

[miff]

Baltimore Sun:

So, Bob Baffert, what kind of track surface would you prefer for the Belmont Stakes on June 6?

\"I want the same track Secretariat had,\" he joked on a humid Sunday morning just outside the Pimlico stakes barn. \"Give me a Secretariat track. I\'ll take that.\"

Of course, Baffert was referring to the 1973 Triple Crown champion who won the Belmont by a mind-boggling 31 lengths.

The 62-year-old trainer will try for an unprecedented fourth time to sweep the Derby, Preakness and Belmont, while jockey Victor Espinoza will be the first rider with a third chance to pull off the feat.

All seemed well with the Triple Crown hopeful. The ear plugs? Still in.

\"He looks fine. He\'s a little quiet. He\'s a little tired, like he\'s supposed to be after a race,\" Baffert said after he and Espinoza appeared on the \"Today Show.\" \'\'That\'s usually him. Health-wise he looks good. No changes. No surprises.\"

Baffert said American Pharoah would be sent to Churchill Downs on Monday for a week of rest and relaxation and resume training at the Louisville, Kentucky, track before traveling to New York. His arrival date is scheduled for Wednesday, June 3.

\"It\'s hard for me to imagine I\'m going through this again,\" said Baffert, back in the Triple chase for the first time in 13 years, when War Emblem lost his chance when he stumbled at the start of the Belmont and finished eighth. \"I can\'t believe this is the fourth time I\'m doing this, and how lucky I\'ve been.

\"All I can do is rely on my experience going to the next one. I know what to expect; I know how difficult it is. With a horse like this it makes my job a lot easier. You see the way he moves. He just floats. He\'s effortless.\"



American Pharoah won the Preakness by seven lengths over a sloppy track in a driving rainstorm. Baffert\'s take? \"He\'s by Pioneerof the Nile, and it was like he was running in the Nile.\"

The track was drenched. Baffert said jockey Gary Stevens, who was aboard seventh-place finisher Firing Line, told him with all the water in his boots and soaked into his saddle pad, he weighed 135 pounds after the race. With equipment and rider, horses carry 126 pounds for the Preakness.

While American Pharoah is scheduled for the Belmont, Baffert said the colt has to be perfectly sound before making the trip to New York.

\"Everything has gone really smooth, other than that hiccup in the Breeders\' Cup,\" Baffert said, referring to a leg injury that kept American Pharoah out of the BC Juvenile. \"So we just got to keep our fingers crossed, keep him healthy and keep him happy. I don\'t want to go up there with a tired horse. Right now, he\'s tired. He went through a lot with that rain and all that and still doing what he did carrying a lot of weight. He just showed what a special horse he is.\"

Dortmund, American Pharoah\'s stablemate, is headed for a break after finishing fourth. So will third-place finisher Divining Rod.

...
The Belmont field will likely include a group of Derby also-rans who skipped the Preakness.

Among them are Frosted (fourth), Materiality (sixth), Keen Ice (seventh), Mubtaahij (eighth), Carpe Diem (10th) and Frammento (11th). Also probable is Peter Pan Stakes winner Madefromlucky.

\"I understand,\" Baffert said of the potential spoilers. \"It just shows the respect they have for American Pharoah. It\'s something you can\'t control. You have to earn it, just like he earned it in the weather yesterday. I\'ve seen a lot of great horses leave here and (lose) in the Belmont — Smarty Jones, Big Brown, Real Quiet, Silver Charm, Funny Cide. I\'ll Have Another (in 2012). You just don\'t know.\"

[miff]

Rob,

Not a reasonable take imo.I seriously doubt that different owners of Pletcher would consider or allow such a conspiracy.Would love to be present when TAP tells Elliot Walden that Carpe is a rabbit for Belmont.

The only  one who trained \"well\"out of the derby was Materiality, then Pletcher backed off the Preak to wait for the Belmont with his big/fast well bred horse.

Frosted, by my sheet interpretation, is not in the same area code with AP or even Materiality ability wise, I know the figs well and what they seem to indicate.Dont think Frosted could ever outrun either one of those without a highly favorable set up, all at their best.


Lastly on Materiality, who says the sharp quick ascendency to his loffy figs didn\'t knock him out. Your mulligan in the derby is maybe a bit generous if you look at his internals which come up very weak(trouble start noted).

Tricky stuff,really knowing how well a horses is doing. After Upstart got over being ill, he trained like a wild horse, Violette told several NY trainers he expected a lights out performance from Upstart.


In the end,Belmont, often enough, not about who\'s fast, so beware the slugs.

Good Luck

Mike

[ringato3]

Mike,

Agreed on \"rabbit\".  I said I am not a conspiracy theory guy.  But I do doubt that Pletcher tells both jockeys to go for the lead.  Watch Dortmund\'s early ride in the Preakness.  It turned out irrelevant as AP dusted them, but Garcia asked for speed, then quickly backed off and drifted into the center of the track, as if to take the rest of the field wide.  (as it turns out, nobody was there to be taken wide, Firing Line was disgusting, stumble or not)

As for Materiality being \"over the top\".  Absolutely, a strong possibility.  It becomes about numbers for me.  AP figures 1-2 or so, not just in the win pool, but in the horizontals (which is where I mostly play).  I think Materiality is 5-1 or so in both pools - will know more when the field is finalized and we see the Brooklyn - Belmont double pool on the Friday before).  50 cents on the dollar vs 5 dollars on the dollar.  I don\'t think AP is 10 times more likely than Materiality to win.  What percentage chance do you give that AP backs up, that Materiality is \"over the top\", etc.etc.  

As for Frosted, I like him less.  But he is fast.  His Remsen was good.  The tricky part IMO with him is that you have to really REACH for excuses this year to read his pattern.  First time out, he looked like a horse that was prepping and a bit short.  I went \"all in\" on him second time out.  Turning for home, I would have accepted 3-5 on him, as Ortiz was handriding.  Then absolutely empty.  Maybe he lost air. At least the connections thought so.  They perform the surgery.  He runs a negative 2 in the Wood.  A big \"jump up\", but not so much relative to the Remsen.  Then the Derby.  The only horse running late as we get a boat race.  Have to admit, I like his finish less than a lot of other people do.  But he did finish a bit.

To me, Frosted is the saver for a pace collapse.  Collapse, meaning not necessarily a vicious pace, but one that is too fast for the distance.  

I can only play \"press Materiality, save Frosted\".  

Slugs beat me.

Rob

[TGJB]

You don\'t have to reach for anything if you believe Frosteds Wood figure. Big race, small bounce, 5 weeks rest. For what it\'s worth a lot of people didn\'t like the way he was training up to the Derby and he ran pretty well.