Early Derby Analysis

[HP]

Last night the Mrs. reveiewed the sheets and now all that\'s left for me is the draw. I hate to be accused of not taking a pre-race position, so I\'ll go early. With a field this big, I\'ve made a few categories.

Contenders/value

Pollard\'s Vision - In my first look through the sheets, this was one of three that jumped out at me. The Mrs. likes him too. Has tactical speed and a jockey with a brain. Figure you have to be able to run under a two to get on the board here, so he fits big time with a pair saving some ground. Yes he has distance questions, but he only has to beat THESE HORSES, and though I am no pedigree expert, few of look like slam dunks at ten furlongs.

Imperialism - Another of the first three that I liked, but the Mrs. doesn\'t see it, so I\'m on the fence a little. Will probably need a new top, and in my observation, not too many horses do this in the Derby. I think Desormeaux is an upgrade. I was a little taken aback by what I read about his first workout at Churchill.

Quinton\'s Gold Rush - This was our biggest divergence. The Mrs. liked this horse and I didn\'t. On second thought, why can\'t he pair up? Will be viewed negatively after Bailey\'s defection, and at 25-1 or better, how can you leave him out? Plus if he wins and my wife cashes and I don\'t I would kill myself, based on the fact that his sheet says he can hit the board. Should be able to save some ground -- the draw will be HUGE for this horse. Others have commented that he didn\'t beat anybody last out, but so what? He\'s fast enough and can save some ground.

Contenders/no value

Cliff\'s Edge - obviously fast enough to win and likes the track. The negatives are that he\'s a bounce candidate and he needs a trip big time (others have commented on Sellers). Even with a slight bounce he can win. Headache, and the draw probably won\'t solve it. There seems to be some possibility that this race will collapse, and that would obviously help his chances. Still, at 4-1 or so I would probably throw him out except for some tri/super tickets so he doesn\'t screw me sucking up third with bombs in the other spots.

Tapit - I\'ve gotten off him a bit, given some of the commentary here. Also, why take a short price on a horse that\'s slower than many others? Again, most horses are not going to make a new top in the Derby. Needs a trip and I can hear the \"he just didn\'t like the track\" excuse already. Still, if he went up to 10-1 or so and drew decently he would fall in the headache category big time.

In A League Of His Own

Lion Heart - seems to be more of a pace question, but how many of these are going to pass him in the last quarter? He can back up a little, save ground and still win. The third one that jumped out at me (with IMPY and ONE-EYE) and the Mrs. likes him too.

Headaches That May Be Resolved Shortly

Minister Eric, Eddington, Master David, Pro Prado and Songofthesword.

Eddington looks the best of these if he gets in. He can pair last, looks like he could get the distance and would probably have decent stalking position. Pro Prado will be a huge price, but I\'m concerned that he may back up off three big races and he\'s another that could run a big number and lose anyway. Still at 30-1 he\'s a HEADACHE and I would have to use him (lightly in exotics!). I\'m leaning more towards throwing the others out.

So the unqualified positives (given the likely odds and consensus between me and the Mrs.) are Pollard\'s Vision, Lion Heart and Quinton\'s Gold Rush (!). Imperialism looks like the most likely one to improve, should get a favorable pace scenario and will be value as well (although I\'m on my own here).

Good luck to all! HP

[HP]

Left out Borrego -- a headache horse. Extremely negative comments on workout at CD. That\'s it. HP

[ronwar]

Nice job HP.  I agree with most of your analysis.  One question though.  What are you going to do with Shorty and Footnotes? Or do you consider them tosses

[shanahan]

HP - what negative comments are you referring to on Borrego - everything I read was quite enthusiastic about his work on Sunday...

[HP]

Shanahan -

Borrego (five furlongs in 1:03.74) - The first out over the track after the renovation break and like FRIENDS LAKE was never asked for any speed by exercise rider Andy Durnin, going in splits of :25.65, :37.87 and :51 before completing his final furlong in :12.74. Has made a very good appearance here all week but must be concerned by the fact he shut down completely after passing the wire, barely galloping out to the seven-eighths pole in a slow 1:19.90.

\"Shut down completely\" and \"barely galloping out\" sounds extremely negative to me. I don\'t know how much stock to put in any of this stuff. If the price is right (I want at least 15-1) I\'ll probably use him.

Ronwar -

I have no problem tossing Read the Footnotes. The last race was BAD. When was the last time you saw a horse run well in the Derby off a BAD last race? I can\'t recall any off the top of my head.

As for Smarty Jones, the positive is that he\'s fast enough to win.

The negative is the stretchout off of the HUGE races. I can\'t see him moving forward or even pairing his last. He won\'t have his own way on the front end. Do you see him stalking and PASSING Lion Heart? I don\'t. He hasn\'t faced anything like what he will see Saturday. His main contribution may be knocking heads close to the lead and setting things up for the stalkers.

I can\'t take a fairly short price on a horse where my main question is \"how much will he back up here?\" Not a great question to ask about a 6-1 shot with these. Borrego seemed to be getting closer at the end of his last race and it looked like Smarty had things pretty much his own way there. As a betting proposition, I\'m going to have to take the longshots here.

Could be an \"x\" factor though -- Smarty seems to like it wet...  

HP

[shanahan]

HP - I\'m losing it...I totally misread and was thinking of Wimbledon...apologies...and it\'s only Monday!  Good Luck, I\'m going with Smarty and boxing with Steve Haskins\' Derby commandment horses...

[HP]

Wimbledon worked well, but for me falls into the same category as Read the Footnotes off an AWFUL last race. On a metaphysical level, the bad vibes from Bailey and Baffert put me off as well, and the horse will probably be overbet.

I can only hope this isn\'t one of Jerry\'s \"it\'s Baffert in Kentucky\" horses, but I will probably have to let him beat me given the other, more positive looking longshots.

I worry about Master David on this level as well, but he\'s another one I\'ll probably let go. Frankel\'s done well in the Derby with horses that figured to do well going in (Aptitude and last year\'s runners looked like major contenders). I\'m not sure he can rally this one up to a new top, and that was an awfully close call in the Wood to get him in...

I\'ll bite, who are the Haskins\' Derby commandment horses? HP

[Mall]

Tstorms appear to be a distinct possibility for Fri & Sat, which may have a big say in how the races are run. There certainly appeared to be a pretty big change from Sat to Sun. I asked my clocker pals about Smarty after reading Linda\'s post & the article praising his work in the drf, & was told that the reason was the last work was on an off track. They don\'t think he looks nearly as good when the trk is fast. If it does rain, pity the poor souls who decide to brave the construction & traffic Sat. There are so many bldgs in the infield at this point that the only way to see an entire race is by helicopter.

On an entirel different topic, D.Wayne had a horse in yesterday which was transferred along with Azeri. After running a big new top & winning convincingly, the horse didn\'t do so good yesterday. Food for thought considering that Azeri will probably be 1-5 Sat.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Mall, I think you better 86 you\'re clocker friends before they dig a hole for you...lol

Which is not to imply Smarty is gonna run well. But to my knowledge he\'s stabled at Keeneland unless I\'ve missed something

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2004/clocker/clocker0424.html



Post Edited (04-26-04 13:29)

[HP]

Chuckles,

Is there any doubt that Smarty Jones can rip off five furlongs with the best of them? I have to wonder what the trainer is thinking working the horse like this. It\'s too bad the Derby isn\'t a sprint. HP

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I don\'t know HP...he\'s a fast horse and fast horses work fast. They say the jockey was motionless.

The track had some moisture in it, but it certainly wasn\'t \"off\". They\'d harrowed it at the renovation. Birdstone ran well on it too, almost as fast as Smarty. So either the strip was kind or Zito screwed up too.

[holybull95]

About Borrego\'s work on Sunday...I watched the work (on tvg) and the exercise rider sat chilly until the wire then relaxed and started bouncing a bit on Borrego\'s back and took a looser grip on the reigns.  Surely that\'s a signal to ease up to the horse.  Also saw Wimbledon\'s work.  Visually more impressive than Borrego but the rider rode him past the wire with a just a little urging in the gallop out to 6f.

The talking heads added a bit of history...Borrego\'s exercise rider did the same for FuPeg.

[HP]

I respect your observations but it doesn\'t really change my opinion. Wimbledon\'s out and Borrego\'s a possibility. As for Smarty Jones running a fast five furlongs I think that\'s about as meaningless as information this week will get. HP

[holybull95]

HP, thanks for the comment but don\'t misread my words.  I, too, like Borrego\'s chances more than Wimbledon.  I have him in the futures.  Borrego is not a fast workout horse.  His only \"bullet\" this year was when he was the only horse to work at the distance (26Jan, Hol. 7f 1:26 and 3).  His dam is out of Strike the Gold who obviously like CD.

[HP]

I hear you HB!  HP