Early Derby Analysis

[Michael D.]

CtC,
i read somewhere that wimbledon and smarty worked with nearly no effort, while birdstone had to be urged along. not sure how true it is, in fact i don\'t even remember where i read it. i think my next analysis will be on birdstone, should be an easy one.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

and was too chicken to bet the Santa Anita Derby or the Bluegrass...lol

The Cliff's Edge – Last race makes him a large factor.  It's a big field, but traditionally his pace style is one that suits the Derby. He's nimble, he closes, he likes the track. (Note the last work) There was no way for the "average" handicapper to select him as early as  TGJB did. When he went the Sammy Davis route thought he was the third stringer. If the Keeneland strip was legit this marginally bred horse for distance appears to have the best close. (Still evaluating that) It seems the distance issue is behind him.

Action this Day – The most positive thing to say about him is that he worked well last. It sounded like he finished up on even terms with his workmate (Halfbridled) Though she carried 30 more pounds of jockey.

Friend's Lake – The time of the Florida Derby wasn't great. The horses that came out of it have done well but have improved to do so. This horse obviously has talent but he's also got some issues. He's a horse that's hard to bad mouth but hard to like. His work plans didn't go well in the goo and he liked the "off" track he had previously run on.

Smarty Jones -  Changed leads again late in the Ark and Borrego ate into his lead. Working well.

Tapit – Thought he was done in the wood on erratic behavior. Not 100% fit last and got talked into giving him a pass and then realized the erratic behavior was what actually occurred. Now the logical course is to rule him out on the bearing in, but the chaos of this year may have him putting that goofy stretch run behind him. Still, he closed and had the best energy late despite all the bearing in and the restraint of the jockey and the trainer is renowned for acumen with injured horses. How do you factor that?

Castledale – Bred to run a long time and lost whip last. Streaky hot trainer.

Limehouse –Still left with the impression he's no better than Swingforthefences and that one probably wouldn't be running here even if he qualified on graded earnings. Santos will probably wrangle him back, but in this field his best chance might be to scoot, don't count on it. If TCE and Lion are as good as that last race he may have long odds exotics potential. If Santos rides you know he should be riding with confidence knowing he's gotten it done before. Still, can't help but think he's not really a 10 mark horse.

Lion Heart – Extremely dangerous in anticipation of the likely pace scenario. Any improvement in his form in consideration of that scenario and the race could set up for him.  The key is early pressure. TCE ran him down last, but it wasn't easy. (The Curse Clown did put the whammy on this horse.)

Read the Footnotes – To my reckoning this horse may have run the fastest figure in the race. Still he's being asked to run a huge race without much foundation. That said he's won some very good races. The issue combines a poorish last race, a layoff and the question of 10 marks in 3yr old company. He could do it...it's a question of probability.

Wimbledon – Bob Baffert, The Louisiana Derby was a big race and this horse dominated it.  He didn't look nearly as good in the Santa Anita Derby and may have bounced or not been primed for that one or he may have run into better horses, but he is working very well at Churchill and Bad Bob is pleased. He may prefer "Eastern" type tracks. Guess we'll see. Baffert has been pleased before with works at Churchill and gotten his hat handed to him, but this horse could obviously screw up a lot of tickets. Major Migraine.

Pollard's Vision – Last was huge. Not only in number but in appearance. He did come home in an extrapolated 26 seconds, but the track was not glib. Has tactical speed and may give Lion Heart something to think about. Picking up lots of weight from the Illinois Derby, but there was another Illinois Derby winner to do that not long ago.

Imperialism – Beat Hosco Sprinting, Beat Lion Heart at two turns. Was right there at the end of the Santa Anita Derby. How one factors his trouble in that race may determine how one evaluates his odds here.  He's got  a dosage of 3.0,  (Heck they all do now), but he's given the appearance of being at the extreme of his distance ability. Either that or regardless of figures he's run into tough horses. Saturday the tough ones he's faced will be Lionheart, Castledale and Quinton's Gold Rush.

Mininster Eric – Believe he is the more positive of Mandella's entries. No other comment right now.

Birdstone – Much better than last. Same light agenda issues as Read the Footnotes and Friend's Lake.

Borrego – Didn't work well on off track. Not holding that against him, he's not a workhorse anyway. Check T-Graph, I make him to be on a forging curve. Has to overcome the "Curse of the Clown".

Quinton's Gold Rush –beat some decent horses last in a huge field if you noticed. Biggest knock to my mind is the Lexington post wire scenario. Song of the Sword is surging and catches Quinton within about a sixteenth past the wire but Songs stride looks very choppy. Still evaluating.

Value Plus – Wish he'd run

St. Averil – Had an excuse last but got beat by a horse passing this race and gives the impression he's just a notch below the top flight. If he's ready and rates like he has his pace style is one that traditionally does well at 10 marks at Churchill.

Master David – The magician trains. Beat Borrego in the Sham getting 2 lengths. Borrego is a more seasoned horse now and has certainly improved off that Sham. Interesting heads up bet Borrego/Master David. Alexis Solis has jinxed this horse.

Song of the Sword – didn't really start running until Quinton was past the wire. Gave the impression the rail was dull Lexington day, but have no evidence yet to say that yet. Didn't like the end of the gallop out or I'd be all over this horse. Pollard Smoked him.

Pro Prado – Not sure what to make of this horse yet. Seeing if he gets in first. Note he finished a lot closer to Smarty Jones than he did to The Cliff's Edge. I know, I know two year old year.

Eddington – He's gonna be a good one, even if he gets in I don't really think he'll be good May 1st. Come Travers day, everyone may be on him.

If you've read carefully I'm not high on about 7 horses.  That's all I can  factor out right now...and I may change my mind...lol   Lets see final posts and jockey selections.

[jbelfior]

Workouts before the Derby mean nothing unless they are bad works.

Funny thing about BORREGO is that his pull-ups are all short after his races. I was never a big fan of any El Prado going long.

Terrific analysis by HP and the MRS. As for RTF, the last time I wagered on a horse that had not run since the FLA. Derby was BET TWICE, who obviously needed the race when he started swerving in the stretch. I thought BT \'s Preakness was his best (as was ALYSHEBA\'S) No thank you on RTF or FRIENDS LAKE for that matter.

Ever since SKIP AWAY\'s Blue Grass romp, I have tempered my enthusiasm for impressive winners/runners-up out of Keenland. I\'ve seen too many Skip Away\'s, Millenium Wind\'s, Holy Bull\'s, High Yield/More Than Ready\'s, etc. Keenland form does not translate well to Churchill Downs which is not to say LH or TCE can\'t win, it\'s just to say I\'m not going to look at that race as a key prep. I would rather look at someone out of the Blue Grass that ran well and perhaps can handle CD much better (pls. see THUNDER GULCH, UNBRIDLED,& SEA HERO). Can anyone read my mind?


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Michael D.]

\"he\'s got a dosage of 3.0 (heck, they all do now)\" ........ arguably the two best horses ever to step foot on a race track, secretariat and northern dancer, both had dosages of exactly 3.0. i think they also ran the two fastest KD\'s of all time.

[Michael D.]

joe,
just read that santos thought he was too close to the pace in the blue grass, and went to pletcher right after the race asking for the derby mount, thinking he could do better. i forget how unbridled ran in the blue grass, but TG and SH both flattened out in the stretch in that race, just like limehouse did.

[pgsheets]

Add Monarchos at 1:59 4/5\'s

[Mall]

You might be right, but for a different reason. Based on some of his steam over the weekend, I\'m half-wondering if I can get my name on a do not call registry. More to the point, he\'s at Kee & his batting avg when he says a horse is unlikely because of a problematic work is much higher than when he thinks a horse should be bet because of a very good work.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Haskin obviously believes in foundation and I can\'t argue with that. you said the horse must have a race in \"March\"? I would guess you meant \"April\" Based upon application of the Haskin Commandments to an April race the following are out:

Friends Lake - only 2 races, no race in April

Tapit - Only 2 races

Castledale - Only two races

Lion Heart - Only Two races

Read the Footnotes - No race in April, only 2 races

Wimbledon - Dosage exceeds 4 (Only horse I\'m aware of in field with high dosage, not gonna look it up cause i don\'t believe in it)

Birdstone - no race in April, only 2 races

My hunch is the \"Haskin Comamndments\" only pertain to the WINNER and that his lordship wouldn\'t toss these seven non qualifers from the exotics spots.

I also have a sneaky suspicion Haskin has liked Cliff\'s Edge for some time and has crafted his \"Haskin Commandments\" for this year...lol

I wonder if Haskin would apply the same structure to betting on the Epsom Derby. If he did he\'d of missed Lammtara. I know, I know its a turf race...turf builds them up, dirt breaks them down.



Post Edited (04-27-04 03:35)

[shanahan]

must have raced as 2 yr old
must have raced 3 times as 3 yr old
must have raced in March
must have dosage below 4.0

[HP]

Thanks. S

[Silver Charm]

These theories or angles usually are come up with by looking backwards and defining a set of parameters. Then there is a little more history and often they begin to fall apart.

Two examples:

1)Dosage--worked for about 8 yrs then came Strike the Gold, Real Quiet and Charistmatic.

2)Dual Qualifiers--fewer and fewer each year are left by the time Derby rolls around. There was a year when there were only two left, Groovy and Ferdinand and when Ferdinand won everyone REALLY became convinced it was magic.

The only raced twice example Mr. Haskins is using is not how A LOT of people are training these days. This angle will be busted, maybe not this year but clearly in years to come.

Just get those earnings in the bank first.

[jbelfior]

Michael D:

LIMEHOUSE will be 30-1; I\'m not sure he wants to go this far. Pedigree and dosage #\'s definitely say no.

That being said, he has 2 terrific sprints over the track and we all know what happens to horses that try to run with LH early.

He\'s a use in the exotics. Plus I like the snaeky ones that no one is talking about. Remember INVISIBLE INK??

I caught Lil E. Tee back when....no one gave him a chance even though he had run 2 terrific races versus one of the favorites (Pine Bluff).

I think Pletcher is holding a nice hand.

Good Luck,
joe B.

[twoshoes]

I\'d like to get CTC\'s take on this pedigree. I think there\'s more here than meets the eye, tilted toward speed definitely, but I don\'t think it necessarily says no for 10 marks. One thing I know for sure is last week I was wondering what Pletcher was thinking running Limehouse in this spot and now after a closer look I think he may be value here.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

First off Twoshoes, I don\'t purport to be a pedigree expert. So take anything I say with a large dose of caution. That said, I do believe in utilizing pedigree to sort them out when they\'ve demonstrated their two turn capability.

The inescapable thing about Limehouse is his sire Grand Slam. It appears pretty clear this sire is gonna be something special. He seems to be bringing early developement, speed and some ability to beyond a mere quick 6 marks. Master David is one too. Here is Limehouse\'s pedigree:

 http://www.pedigreequery.com/index.php?query_type=horse&search_bar=horse&h=LIMEHOUSE2&g=5&inbred=Standard&x2=n&pedloggedin=0

Its funny, we were just discussing Pollard\'s Vision and heres another horse with a Dixieland Band broodmare Sire. The difference is this horse is not nearly as stamina oriented down the mare side. Pollard had Pleasant Colony and Nijinsky and some heavy duty others is my recollection, not to mention Chris Evert. His dosage reflects it but as Zito says \"Dosage is Voodoo\". However his sire may pick up some for the softer female side. I\'d judge Limehouse on figures. Do you see a progressive pattern? I think its relatively clear the pace in the Bluegrass was somewhat hot. I thought Limehouse would walk away in that race but he ran a 46:60 on a slowish track and got beat. If Limehouse can conserve some energy early he\'s knocked heads with some good ones. That said if I was Pletcher and got a good post vis a vie Lionheart I might send this horse. He\'s got two horses someone has to take it to Lion early with Sinister on the bench.

I will say that depending upon post position I think he\'s got far more exotics potential than win potential.



Post Edited (04-27-04 15:27)

[Michael D.]

joe,
i have never really liked limehouse, but with a little luck, he could be there. the horse has a ton of speed, so santos should be able to get a decent trip (probably right behind LH and the four speed/stalker types). i was just going through the #\'s, and i just can\'t eliminate him from the exotics.