Hats off to the KY Derby Winner

[mjellish]

Dunno how you can take much away from the winner.  He ran wider than the other top 2 and finished better.  He was absolutely gassed at the end of that race though.  Note how the other two and some others passed him shortly after the wire on the gallop out.  I would have to say they got to the bottom of him this time, which makes for an interesting Preakness.

No excuses for Dortmund unless you think the rail was bad.  I don\'t think it was.  He saved all the ground and set comfortable fractions. I thought he was gone at the top of the lane but he faded.  Have to assume he just didn\'t get the distance.  Mom was a sprinter, so...

Same thing for Carpe Diem.  He had a perfect trip and just didn\'t fire.  Maybe the inside post did him in, but I don\'t think so.  He has shown in the past that he can sit behind horses, take dirt, switch out, etc.  So my thought is that Pletcher did the wrong thing by keeping him at Keenland and not working him hard at Churchill.  Don\'t mean to sound arrogant like I\'m second guessing the trainer who should know the horse better than I do.  But if you don\'t think the colt can handle the stress of training for the race, why run him in the race itself?

Upstart never was comfortable.  I saw him tossing his head around heading into the first turn and he never got into a rhythm.  Knew he was toast just like Friesen Fire a few years ago.  Was done by the 1/2 mile pole and the jock did the right thing by not asking him.  Probably nothing wrong with the colt though.  Might make for an interesting play back down the line somewhere.  At first glance I would still want no part of him in the Belmont though even with the Belmont winners in his pedigree.

Materiality trip very reminiscent of Curlin\'s trip in the Derby.  All things considered he ran really well, better than most would have with his limited amount of experience.  He got shuffled way back and had to eat a lot of dirt to come around horses.  May prove to be a major player down the line in the late summer.  I would think TAP backing off on him now would be the right move.  But he seems to know the horse pretty well so if he comes back in one of these next two triple crown races would have to take a close look at him.  Would definitely strongly consider him in the Belmont.  

There were others that had trouble as well that could rebound and run big next out if in the right spot.  Will be curious to see how many of these others actually come back for the Preakness, and how a new shooter like Divining Rod could impact that field.  I thought his Lexington was pretty good.

One more thing of note.  All things considered, even with the favorites coming in, I still thought the Tri payoff came up a bit light.  I was figuring on about $400 for that combo.  Most likely means that many people must have keyed AP on top.  Pretty sure had he run out the payoffs would have been overlays no matter what else happened.  As a consolation, at least the Tri wasn\'t an IRS ticket.  So if you had it for a saver you wound up losing some money but didn\'t have to claim the winnings and have taxes withheld too.  That\'s always the worst.

I\'m still planning on sticking to the plan and betting with both fists against AP if he comes back in the Preakness.  He\'s going to be a huge favorite and they definitely emptied tank.

[sekrah]

I think if Frosted had nipped Dortmund for 3rd, it would have really juiced the tri\'s. Dortmund/AP in the tri is a killer.  Like Street Sense/Hard Spun magnified. If Firing Line had won, I would have had a super.

[mjellish]

Agreed.  But I had that tri in 2007 and as I remember it paid like 450 or something like that.  Same type of betting choices in it, think it was 1st, 4th, 2nd.  This one was 1st, 4th, 2nd choices as well but paid less than half that.  Tells me Lot of people had AP keyed on top.  Or maybe 18 horses instead of 20?

All I know is I saw a lot of happy people after the race yesterday, till the prices came up.  I didn\'t expect it to pay much.  But $200 was light.

[sekrah]

Street Sense 4.9-1
Hard Spun 10.0-1
Curlin 5.0-1

-

A.Pharaoh 2.9-1
Firing Line 9.5-1
Dortmund 4.3-1


Scratches didn\'t help, but Pharaoh was a much more consensus favorite than Street Sense was.  There were also more horses in the 10-15 range in that race.

The 9th horse on the board in 2007 was Tiago at 14.8-1.
The 9th horse on the board yesterday was Danzig Moon at 22.6-1

[jbelfior]

MJ:
I look at that pull up from AP and I\'m chomping at the bit. Would love to see El Kabeir in there in 2 weeks but not sure what his condition is. If you can handle the inner, you can handle Pimlico.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[joekay]

No excuses for Dortmond?  I just read he had a bout of colic on 4/25, that\'s the first time I\'ve seen that reported. It would have been nice to know there was a chance that his start in the KD was in jeopardy, before the race - not after.  It would have certainly made a difference in how I constructed my ticket.

[sekrah]

There\'s tons of shit that people around the track know and it never gets reported. The state of the media in horse racing is pathetic.

[mjellish]

It was minor.  No excuse

[Rick B.]

Wait -- now we can\'t adequately construct a ticket without
knowledge of week-old intestinal events for each horse?

I suppose we will need handicapping products for this, too:

\"Thoro-Crap\"? \"Colic-Graph\"?

***

Folks, it\'s time to put your #2 pencils down -- this year\'s
Derby exam is OVER.

Get some rest, and stop pondering horse\'s bowels for why you didn\'t cash.

[FrankD.]

Rick B.

Love YA are you sure you don\'t have any New York in you?

[miff]

Issue goes way deeper than Dortmund\'s colic and foot bruise weeks before. The subject of full disclosure of a horses medical record has/is being discussed in NY and at other venues.

This issue falls under NY racing\'s attempt at transparency towards players, the idea is one of many to increase handle. Naturally MANY horsemen and some owners are diabolically opposed to releasing this info for various reasons. Some argue the release of medical records will lead to more players leaving the game, ruin the claiming game,embolden the PETA loons etc.

Pretty strong support at the all powerful NYSGC under the guise of transparency. Issue has lost some steam.A whale pal spoke before the panel and flatly stated that lack of transparency overall was forcing him to consider dropping out of the game.

Gamblers should not have to jump thru hoops to gain info they deem as ordinary and necessary for them to gamble their money on a horse.

Completely agree with the poster who complained that he would have changed his wager had he known about the colic of Dortmund just days before the race.

[Boscar Obarra]

I first thought I saw $600 for the tri which would have been generous, but the actual pay of 200 was quite light , especially considering the exacta pay in the 70\'s.

 Possibly someone pounded it really hard and took a big chunk of the pool.

[jbelfior]

His 1:13 and change SA work was an alarm IMO. Better things to come from him.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[Rick B.]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Completely agree with the poster who complained
> that he would have changed his wager had he known
> about the colic of Dortmund just days before the
> race.

Trying hard to envision some of the known whales of
the game -- Randy Gallo, Ernie D., TGJB -- reading
the double-secret \"Comprehensive Colic Report\", so
they can accurately construct their wagers and only
use Dortmund in the 3rd slot.

Nope. I\'m jammed up, it\'s not coming to me.

[mjellish]

What was wrong with that work? Might have been one of his best works ever.  Came home a final quarter in 22.2 and galloped out with more in the tank.  If he had went in 1:11, come home in 25 and shut down it would have been not good to my eye.  All it would have been was faster.  The time of the work less important than how they do it, and how they come out of it.

This colic thing was nothing to change a bet over.  Colt trained better than ever and ran his heart out.  He just wasn\'t good enough at 1 1/4 IMO.

AP has a quarter crack, wore a bar shoe and he won the KY Derby.