Hats off to the KY Derby Winner

[Mathcapper]

As most have noticed, the tri did come back light, but it's not out of line with expectations based on how the public bets exotics.

Unlike they do in the win pool, where they tend to underbet favorites and overbet longshots, the public tends to overbet favorites and underbet longshots in the exotics. This is not specific to the Derby or to a heavy favorite. It is the case in general with respect to all exotic wagers, both vertical and horizontal.

The computer guys have a formula they've put together from academic papers to estimate probablilities/projected payoffs for vertical exotic wagers. It's not as accurate as the parlay formula used for horizontal wagers (primarily because horses don\'t run second, third or fourth at the same proportional rate as they win), but it works pretty well. It's based on a discounted Harville approach using Henery coefficients of lambda = 0.8 and ro = 0.6 (don't ask).

Anyway, using their formula, based on the final win odds the tri projected to pay around $543 ($334 using straight Harville, which is usually less accurate).

Just out of curiosity, I looked at the ex, tri & super payoffs for some of the recent Derbys, including the 2007 edition, to see how the projected payoffs compared with this year's running. In the results below, the betting choice for each finishing position is shown in parentheses, followed by the exotic payoff and the percentage over/under the actual payoff was compared to the projected payoff.

2015
1: (1)
2: (4) $2 Ex: $72.60 (-10%)
3: (2) $2 Tri: $202.00 (-64%)
4: (5) $2 Sup: $1,268.20 (-78%)

2014
1: (1)
2: (17) $2 Ex: $340.00 (+71%)
3: (3) $2 Tri: $3,424.60 (+58%)
4: (2) $2 Sup: $15,383.80 (-27%)

2013
1: (1)
2: (15) $2 Ex: $981.60 (+173%)
3: (3) $2 Tri: $6,925.60 (+95%)
4: (5) $2 Sup: $57,084.00 (+37%)

2012
1: (9)
2: (1) $2 Ex: $306.60 (+36%)
3: (6) $2 Tri: $3,065.60 (+1%)
4: (13) $2 Sup: $96,092.80 (+57%)

2007
1: (1)
2: (4) $2 Ex: $101.80 (-24%)
3: (2) $2 Tri: $440.00 (-60%)
4: (13) $2 Sup: $29,046.40 (+40%)

Note how all payoffs consisting of purely favorites were light, while combos where a longshot slipped in all paid better than projected. The results are right in line with the public's tendency to overbet favorites and underbet longshots in the exotics.

And as sekrah noted, the 2007 results were not out of line with this year's running when you consider the odds – both tris were light by around 60% because of the heavy tilt toward the top betting choices in the field.

Rocky R.

[Rick B.]

FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Rick B.
>
> Love YA are you sure you don\'t have any New York
> in you?

It\'s my South Side of Chicago upbringing...close enough
in \'tude to NY.

[mjellish]

This is good stuff Rocky.  Thanks for crunching the numbers.

[metroj]

In hindsight Baffert probably wishes that work would have been at Churchill and not Santa Anita. None of his other shippers ran well and most all had their final works at SA as well.

[jbelfior]

MJ:
We can agree to disagree on the time of the work. I thought he was sluggish early in it and was pushed late. That\'s what makes this a great game---we all see different things.  
I also don\'t think it was the 1 1/4 distance. He was passed before the 1/8th pole and had no fight in the lane.

BTW: what to make of him pulling up ahead of the winner and runner-up??

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Acesover]

Trakus had everyone in race except  for Frosted covering less ground than the winner.
2nd place finisher covered 29 feet less and 3rd place finsher covered 69 feet less than winner

[miff]

Trakus also reports Frosted(many think he closed well) ran last quarter 25.98, 2nd fastest.Fastest last quarter was Materiality

[mjellish]

Since it wasn\'t just Dortmund that galloped out ahead of AP, but several, my take away is that AP shut down quickly

[miff]

MJ,

Baffert said his horses were gassed at the end, Dortmund more than AP,though Dort did gallop past AP who shut down.Some smart horses shut down quick,think gallop outs very slippery slope to place too much stock in.

Baffert also said AP purposely was floated wide off the turn by Espinoza to target Firing Line....dont buy that for one minute.


Mike

[FrankD.]

MJ

Stop by the deck at the Spa some weekend and catch Rocky live and in person. One conversation with Richiebee and he went right to the craft brew tent and never returned! LOL

[jbelfior]

MJ:
Similar to Materiality after the Florida Derby. I agree with Miff that gallop outs can be a slippery slope, but I have made some nice scores playing against shut downs.
We\'ll see how it works out with AP in 2 weeks.

Good Luck,
Joe B.