quintons gold rush

[Michael D.]

breeding: this horse should be at his best running from 1m to 1 1/16. sire, wild rush, did his best work at 1m and less, but was able to stretch to 9f in a few weak stakes races. average winning distance for his offspring is 6.8f, a bit short, and the TG sire stats suggest anything past 9f will be stretching it a bit. dam out of mr prospector was unraced, but second dam was a very nice turf mare in europe, and could get the longer distances. wild again and mr prospector blood leave this one with a dosage of 3.73 . based on breeding, 10f should be a difficult, but not impossible task for QGR.

pace scenerio: trainers tend to stick to the game plan when coming off stakes victories, and i expect the same here (:47.1 half in the lexington). should be one of two or three horses chasing LH, and should get a decent trip.

the numbers: the horse is fast, and improved with the switch to assmussen, a trainer who was hit with a drug suspension last year. a major concern, however, is that the horse ran a very weak final eighth in the SA derby, and was used quite hard in his last race (his third race in six weeks). now they are attempting to wheel him back on two weeks rest, in the KD no less. i have always been a big fan of this horse, and i think he has the potential to be a future champion miler, but i do not understand the current game plan. i will not be using QGR in this year\'s KD.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I tend to agree with you on the rest issue. Would he have run in the Lexingtion if he had sufficient graded earnings?

Then you have to ask yourself why did Bailey move for the other Wild Rush? Did he know he \"used\" him to get up in the Lexington?

Still, theres a history of horses running well in the Derby off of two weeks rest. Including the Santa Anita Derby, Lexington route. The only thing that sheds poor light on Quinton\'s race was the prior race won by \"Roses in May\" granted Roses is a 4yr old:

23.29, 47.36, 1:11.81, 1:36.57, 1:42.61
23.32, 47.29, 1:12.00, 1:37.36, 1:43.82

Quinton however did go wide and I\'m not positive Bailey didn\'t try to save something. I need to see a replay.

Regarding Quinton\'s breeding take a close look at his Dam\'s Dam. His mom was unraced but his grandparents that side are American speed on top of European stamina which can be effective in American racing.

Wild Rush is a relatively new sire and he was very fast. But don\'t forget the Kentucky Club Classic against Silver Charm. The Track Record in the Illinois Derby. I think it can be said with some certainty that Wild Rush was a good 9 mark horse.



Post Edited (04-24-04 14:03)

[Linda]

I happened to be listening to a horse racing show on a local radio station on the way to CD today, and none other than the one you guys call Ando was a featured guest. He described how he arranged for the racetrack chaplain to administer a special blessing so that Smarty Jones will win the Derby. The people I\'ve talked to say he needs it. Smarty has a skin rash and has sweated profusely ever time he\'s on the track. There\'s also talk that QGR is a head case who quits if he is surrounded by horses. Might be a bit of a problem in a 20 horse field, don\'t you think?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Don\'t know what T-Graphs position on Quinton\'s last three but I think he\'s progressing. Whether he\'s good enough to progress from here is the question. His pace style should benefit him. Recent history says the Lexington Derby route is not bad. I don\'t have last race figures on him yet. To me that will be the key in wagering upon him. Hard to buy into the surrounded by horses part. He\'s loaded into the gate before.

If Smarty J. has a rash he sure didn\'t let it bother him Saturday morning. I don\'t know does he look ill in the photo? Assuming its todays.:

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2004/clocker/clocker0424.html

[Michael D.]

good points CtC.... i always like hearing opinions from guys who nailed the horse last time out at 5-1......  tomorrow i have three more rundowns coming, chime in ....

[Silver Charm]

This is one of many outstanding posts you guys have put together over the last two weeks. Keep it up I know they require a lot of time and work, but they are helping people become better handicappers.

Also whoever helped Satish find this horse did him a good service he may turn out to be a good mid-level sire for his farm down the road. I KNOW Satish is excited about getting back to The Derby.

CtC you wrote:

>Then you have to ask yourself why did Bailey move for the other Wild Rush? Did he know he \"used\" him to get up in the Lexington?

After todays events Bailey may not be on that one either. Also let me add I do not know what is going on with Bailey regarding riding for \"Mattress\" Mac but you have to careful sometimes following him in this race. When he has nothing like this year he will ride as a HIRED GUN.

When he rode Worldly Manner he was paid the winners share by The Sheiks up front. If he did win he got double. When he rode Talk is Money he was paid by Borislew I believe 50K then eased the horse half-way thru the race.

His services this year again are/were for sale and I don\'t mean the standard $55.00, or whatever it is now.

[Catalin]

Linda:

Any chance the legion of Ando fans that didn\'t get to hear him today could get a copy of the broadcast?  How about an autographed 8x10 of the new slim, trim \"Sultan of Sod\"?

[jbelfior]

It took Bailey and his agent about half a day to decide they would not ride this colt in the Derby.....he beat up on second rate 3yos in the Lexington....eliminate.

Lots of posts on LION HEART. Two preps, speed happy Biancone, fails to conserve energy early....5 week layoff, then a huge BEYER, then back in 3 weeks for a horse that runs hard from the bell....no thank you.

What do the following Derby deep closers have in common.... FERDINAND, GATO DEL SOL, UNBRIDLED, MONARCHOS

They all had the ability to run one or more sharp 7f races in their 2yo or early 3yo career....translation...if you are going to come from way out of it, you better have a quick turn of foot.


Anyone know whom that might be? Find him and you may have the Derby winner.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

IMPERIALISM

[Silver Charm]

Joe B wrote,

What do the following Derby deep closers have in common.... FERDINAND, GATO DEL SOL, UNBRIDLED, MONARCHOS

A blistering pace. Two of those years when Ferdinand and Monarchos won the pace was crazy.

Michael D pointed out that the year Monarchos won it was because the speed drew inside. Well when Ferdinand won the all of the speed drew outside. When the speed draws next to each other they have a tendency to OVERCOOK IT trying to outrun each other for position as compared to if they are a little more spread apart. We will have to wait and see how the draw goes this year because we could again be set up for another fast one.

[big ant]

SJ looked pretty good in that workout. He didn\'t appear to be sweating profusely, and he seemed to be running pretty easily.

[miff]

BIG ANT,
Shhhh!!! please. SJ is the least talked about KD HORSE TALKED ABOUT, WITH THE BIGGEST SHOT

[big ant]

Bailey is a dead piece who has lost his nerve, and his number one priority is his retirement. He needs the best or he isn\'t going to win. The way he\'s riding now reminds me of a time in the 80\'s when he hit the skids really bad. He was riding so poorly that Mack Miller ,his main man chose Eddie Maple over him to ride his stock. J.D. should pack it in  before he gets hurt or he hurts someone else!!!!

[big ant]

I hope everyone bets him ,because i positively will not

[miff]

CURIOUS, he\'s faster than all  of those \"phony\" horses with GROUND LOSS #\"s .I\'M hoping he\'s not over the top and has one more in hiM ,but I admit this is the toughest KD I have seen in 40 years.This is truly an ordinary group at this point.