quintons gold rush

[big ant]

0-2-X

[Silver Charm]

Smarty Jones is clearly the horse to beat and with the $5 Million Bonus on the line these guys will be ALL OUT.

No holding back, save some for the Preakness stuff.

And if we wins the Triple Crown he will easily be the richest race horse of all-time with another $5 Million Bonus. What a great story.

By the way miff is your older sister milf

[miff]

no, dont\'t know milf. as much of a shot that I give SJ in the KD,the TC is the most grueling set of races in short order and it takes a special constitution as well as raw talent. I can\'t say any of this crop is worthy of my personal thinking on this subject.I do know that an awful lot of SLOW horses are being touted and I can\'t see it.That\'s what makes this game great, everyone\'s opinion.

[big ant]

bvehave yourself SC ,all out is good it will get him beat for sure, I like Stew Elliot but not that much,anyway 0-2-x it is.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Smarty could certainly 0-2-X. If he does it will be on the big Rebel, which Jerry says is the fastest number he can recall giving a 3yr old. I tend to believe him because I\'ve rarely seen anything like that race.

Then you have to figure the reasons he may not 0-2-X. Is that pattern as applicable to developing 3 yr olds? Who has 0-2-X\'d this year? Perhaps Value Plus, though personally I believe he tried to run too fast early in his last and met better horses. But he did appear to X. There may be others, I just can\'t come up with them off the top of my head.

He\'s developed a reasonable amount between two and three. It could be argued on developemen the negative 3 was not out of his ballpark. It may have set him back somewhat in the Ark, but he still ran a negative to my reckoning and he did it overcoming a muddy track and spotting weight.

Bottom line is he may 0-2-X, but I think its more likely that the 10 marks beats him, not a X off a three point top.

Regarding Ando I think he works his handicapping into his \"backstretch insights\". I\'d rather listen to water drip.

This in today\'s online Form:

Value Plus - Florida Derby runner-up worked four furlongs in 49.62 seconds over Belmont Park\'s main track. Trainer Todd Pletcher reiterated that Value Plus would only run should Lion Heart or Smarty Jones defect.

Pletcher\'s logic is interesting isn\'t it? I\'m still trying to figure it out. Is it as simple as 3 fast horses is worse than 2 fast horses?



Post Edited (04-25-04 15:29)

[holybull95]

What comes next after the 0-2-X?  If the X is a negative 3 (from the top) should we reasonably expect the next race to equal the top?  Improve?  If the X is a negative 6 is he (or she) done for a while?

[holybull95]

Re my just posted question, I realize length of time between the X and next race is of course a consideration.  Let\'s assume 6-8 weeks.  What\'s next?

[bdhsheets]

0= the horses top i.e. Smarty a -3.75

2= two points from the horses top i.e. Smarty -1.75

X= the following race, which in theory, will be 4+ points from the horses top.

[jwo7]

Does anyone know how often the 0-2-X theory holds true?  I realize there are a lot of relevant variables when looking at the percentages(age of horses, quality , spacing of races, etc), but as a general rule, I\'m currious how often the theory holds true.

[miff]

Yes,I know this, if you strictly believe in this theory and bet accordingly, you must also believe in the tooth fairy. Each horse is different and each situation is different.There is no documented evidence of an 0=2=x but rather a pattern which shows itself from time to time.

[jwo7]

miff wrote:
There is no documented evidence of an 0=2=x but rather a pattern which shows itself from time to time.
>
>There is no documented evidence of 0=2=x?  Are you kidding?  All one would have to do is look at the data over the past few years.  I realize every race is different, and it can\'t be used as a blanket angle,  I was simply curious as to how often this pattern presents itself, regardless of the circumstances.

[miff]

I\'ve have used speed figures and sheets for over 20 yeasrs and can tell you that a horse will x, or pair up almost equally in this pattern.The circumstance presents itself everytime a horse runs a top then bounces slightly and then??? x\'s, pairs up or rarely runs a new top.That\'s what I have seen, generally.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

This is obviously an issue for Jerry, but I\'ll chime in with what I understand of it.

The larger the \"0\" Top (O being a symbol in this formula and not a value) in consideration of previous tops and the amount of progression in a developing horse, the greater the chance the \"2\" (A two point regression from the 0 value) will result in an X. (A significant regression...I\'ll leave what that means for others to define)

A two point regression is four lengths so thats showing some loss of blood generally.

I don\'t know how it holds up statistically. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn\'t. But a three point top is fairly signifcant, but you have factor a developing horse and  the amount of developement.

0-2-X to my mind is a \"beat the favorite\" strategy. If you don\'t like his odds and the graph shows 0-2-X possibility thats when you take a shot.

[Michael D.]

i have seen hundreds of pre race posts on these boards, and i have never seen anybody correctly toss a low priced favorite using the 0-2-x theory. i urge believers to give it a shot one day.

[Silver Charm]

Wasn\'t Peace Rules an 0-2-X in the Preakness last year at about 9-5 odds.

I think Peace Rules ran forth

The conversation came up then.

Marc at DRF took your position.

I miss Marc