american pharoah...paddock behavior question

[SoCalMan2]

From reading articles, I understand that American Pharoah lost his first race because he freaked out first time he saw a crowd and basically poured out all his energy before the race started. My question is this -- if the Derby Day crowd were to instigate the same sort of meltdown, would those of us out here know about it? What is the best way to find out if he is having a melt down? I feel like I will need to enter two different sets of bets and then cancel one set depending on whether he melts down or not. Is this a crazy viewpoint? It seems to me he either runs his race and wins.....or he doesn\'t run his race and then this race becomes much more wide open.

[touchgold]

well, i think there were 67,000 in attendance at oaklawn and he held up well. Yes its not 150k, but its surely more than his first race.

[toppled]

The best way if you\'re home is to follow multiple feeds from the track. You can watch the track feed on your computer & the Network feed on TV & hope you get to see enough of him.

If it happened once as a 2yo in his 1st start & was a one time thing, I wouldn\'t be too concerned.  Now I know it\'s the crazy story time of year but one thing I heard on a broadcast or read somewhere was they had a nasal strip on him in his debut & he hated it & that was one of the reasons he freaked out.  Ever since he\'s run without a nasal strip.

[joemama]

Another thing is find someone who is in the paddock using twitter.  Surely there will be someone, Katon Bradar , Donna Barton Brothers.

[ROBERT49]

heard that AP reacted to a nose bandage his first race-and BB never used it again on him. don\'t know if that is true or not.

[tommydw2000]

On another note, I was reading about AP\'s arrival in CD this week and the picture of him to me looked really bad! chest was very well developed but his hind QTRS looked tucked in and gaunt. Granted this picture could have been from a bad angle and such but the picture I found of him at the Arkansas Derby looked different. In the Ark. Derby picture he looked very good and filled out. So is it just me or has anyone else noticed this picture of his arrival at CD?

[mjellish]

He\'s already lost weight.  He did so after the rebel too, but put it back on quickly.  I wouldn\'t read too much into that photo unless he doesn\'t come out of his last work well or trains poorly the final week.  Remember, they\'ve been playing catch up with him.  6 works in 5 weeks to get ready for Rebel.  Then two more works and a race at 1 1/8 over the next 4 weeks.

I wouldn\'t expect Baffert to do much with him between now and Derby.  But this is a good work horse who everyone raves about in the am.  So if they aren\'t raving about how he acts in the am the final week and he doesn\'t put the weight back on that would be telling, IMO.

Regardless, unless he really wows me between now and then, I\'m leaning towards letting him beat me in louisville figuring if he wins there he\'s likely to bounce in Preakness as heavy odds on favorite and I can hopefully recoup my money then.  I know that\'s pre mature.  But it\'s giving me the confidence to play against him here.

Tough, contentious race.  Can\'t bet them all.

[toppled]

Here\'s a video.  Expert horse viewers, what do you think?  

http://www.wave3.com/clip/11386677/american-pharoah-arrives

Sorry for the 30 second commercial in the video.  Best view is right after the return to Pharoah at the end after the interview.

EDIT: I don\'t know what is wrong with the link, it works for me on my desktop but on my I-Pad it doesn\'t.  Please go to my subsequent post for a better video link.

[Holybull1]

toppled Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Here\'s a video.  Expert horse viewers, what do you
> think?  
>
> http://www.wave3.com/clip/11386677/american-pharoa
> h-
>
> Sorry for the 30 second commercial in the video.
> Best view is right after the return to Pharoah at
> the end after the interview.

All i saw is somerhing about tickets being hard to come by. I had a hard time focusing on that video. Wow.

[toppled]

Sorry for the problem.  It worked for me right after I posted it , but here\'s a much better vidhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7fR6I-whegeo.

[bellsbendboy]

Another terrific post in a several year long string, from me congrats MJ!

For me, \"pharaoh\" horse lays all over this bunch.  From the buyback forward the barn was enthused!  Rated remarkably kindly in Hot Springs.  Easy to project the roses here,  yet, as often in this heat,  the horse to beat, and, the horse to bet are ....bbb

[miff]

Depends who\'s is looking.This morning from a clocker at CD:


\"American Pharaoh on track making a very nice early impression\"

[boston]

From the horseracenation clip he looks smart, bright, and fit.  From the WAVE clip he can look a little under weight.

[joemama]

Very strange.  Lends credence to the old saying that beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

[TGJB]

This is where Covello brings added value. He\'s our Maggie Wolfendale, except even better looking.