american pharoah...paddock behavior question

[covelj70]

omg

This line is an ESPN instant classic JB!

[mistermoose]

I am thinking you need an appointment with my Opthamologist Jerry.

[Ill-bred]

His hip doesn\'t look giant, but overall he looks very good mentally and physically to me.

[covelj70]

BTW,

FWIW, I am 100% in agreement with what MJ said on this topic.  I had the same exact exchange with a friend of mine this week who said he didn\'t like how AP looked in the pic getting off the van

he definitely looks light, especially in his hind but that\'s exactly how he looked coming out of the Rebel.

If he regains the weight over the next two weeks like he did in the two weeks coming out of the Rebel, there is no problem, if he doesn\'t put the weight back on this time, it\'s telling.

it\'s also pretty likely that Baffert intentionally keeps him a little lighter than his typical horse (which generally look like Greek Gods) in order to try and prevent the injury that kept him out of the Breeders Cup from reoccurring.  That\'s very common for horses who have had a significant injury to be kept lighter than normal.

on this topic, does anyone have Bodemeister\'s PPs leading up to the Derby.  I can\'t remember if Baffert breezed him once or twice between the Ark Derby and the Ky Derby.

I know Baffert usually likes to breeze them 2x over CD because he feels like the track takes some time to get comfortable with but with only 3 weeks between races, I think it\'s tough.

Also interesting that he\'s sending Dortmund and One Lucky Dane out on April 26th so they will only have 1 breeze over CD track.

He may be changing his tactics because he hasn\'t won this thing in a while and he lost with last heavy favorite (Bode).  

I can only imagine the hysteria on this board if Pletcher ever lost with the favorite in the Derby....ok sorry, couldn\'t resist that one, I will stop that now!

[TGJB]

1-- What was the specific injury AP had?

2-- Has anyone ever done any research on how horses who trained at CD have done in the Derby relative to those that have not?

[Wrongly]

Jim

Bris pp\'s - http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KYDerbyHistory0013.pdf

[miff]

Re AP, an originally reported foot bruise, turned out to be a suspensory. Baffy stated it\'s all fine before AP debuted as 3yr old.

Don\'t know about training at CD but having raced well at CD prior to the derby had been an angle I like.

Dortmund obviously has the edge there.

[covelj70]

this is super interesting, thanks for posting this data

I think it\'s very telling that Baffert breezed Bode 2x between Ark Derby and Ky Derby and he breezed a fast 5 furlongs both times and yet he plans on only breezing AP one time.

It doesn\'t mean AP isn\'t going to run a monster race on May 2nd, it just means that Baffert really is treating this horse with a light touch because of the injury history.

One could also argue that AP has more foundation than Bode so he needed more to be ready for the race or that since Bode didn\'t win as the pretty heavy fav that he is changing tactics.

I would lean toward the idea that they are trying to prevent the physical issues from cropping back up.

my goodness does this horse move so beautifully for a horse that has some physical issues, simply flawless action

[miff]

Jim

Two very sharp individuals who observe AP\'s daily training in Cali believe he exhibits potential star quality.AP was regularly demolishing his workmates who are nice horses.AP never stiff in am (Dortmund sometimes was but still ran big)

No way to know how sound he is.

Mike

[covelj70]

oh, I don\'t think there is any doubt about how brilliant the horse is.

He is demolishing horses in Graded Stakes and those horses are coming back to win Grade 1s themselves (i.e. Texas Red).

He\'s a brilliant, brilliant horse

As I\'ve said on board before, distance somewhat of a question mark but it would be more of a question if he didn\'t move as well as he does

[louisvilleguy1111]

This whole talk of brilliance is kinda getting old if you ask me he has beat ABSOLUTELY nothing simple as that. Oh the way he moves is breathtaking!! Please lets all take a breath and put the Kool Aid container down for a moment. Look at the horses he has beaten this year in those two races at Oaklawn list just one of them that you really see winning a Grade 1 not this year but EVER!!! Talk about paid workouts...

If he wins the Derby then I will start to look at him and consider the term \"Brilliance\" being used until then he\'s a total bet against for the win. The horse had foot problems in the past he has been babied ever since and he is on a tight schedule coming into the Derby. This always in the past has spelled
P-L-A-Y A-G-A-I-N-S-T!

I don\'t care how much the trainer thinks of this horse, Baffert thought the same of Point Given, Looking at Lucky, Bode and a couple others going into the Derby through the years and he totally got his balls whacked all those times.
This is looking like a very good crop of 3 year old\'s and not a year you want to be playing catch up or taking it easy on your horse (trying to not hurt him further). He will be totally off all my tickets on the Win and Place end. I could see him maybe holding on for Show at the very best.

I think the Derby once again runs through FL this winter... Yes there are several running all over the different parts of the country that could show up in the gimmicks but Frosted, Carpe Diem, Upstart and Materiality all look better to me then AP. Dortmund is the only horse that scares me that has been running outside of Florida that I could see winning the race. I could see me using him as well on the Win end based on his odds and post position.

So go ahead fire away at me cause I don\'t think the second coming of Seattle Slew is here among us but I think your an absolute fool to bet AP to win on any ticket in this years running of the KY Derby.

[P-Dub]

louisvilleguy1111 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This whole talk of brilliance is kinda getting old
> if you ask me he has beat ABSOLUTELY nothing
> simple as that. Oh the way he moves is
> breathtaking!! Please lets all take a breath and
> put the Kool Aid container down for a moment. Look
> at the horses he has beaten this year in those two
> races at Oaklawn list just one of them that you
> really see winning a Grade 1 not this year but
> EVER!!! Talk about paid workouts...
>
> If he wins the Derby then I will start to look at
> him and consider the term \"Brilliance\" being used
> until then he\'s a total bet against for the win.
> The horse had foot problems in the past he has
> been babied ever since and he is on a tight
> schedule coming into the Derby. This always in the
> past has spelled
> P-L-A-Y A-G-A-I-N-S-T!
>
> I don\'t care how much the trainer thinks of this
> horse, Baffert thought the same of Point Given,
> Looking at Lucky, Bode and a couple others going
> into the Derby through the years and he totally
> got his balls whacked all those times.
> This is looking like a very good crop of 3 year
> old\'s and not a year you want to be playing catch
> up or taking it easy on your horse (trying to not
> hurt him further). He will be totally off all my
> tickets on the Win and Place end. I could see him
> maybe holding on for Show at the very best.
>
> I think the Derby once again runs through FL this
> winter... Yes there are several running all over
> the different parts of the country that could show
> up in the gimmicks but Frosted, Carpe Diem,
> Upstart and Materiality all look better to me then
> AP. Dortmund is the only horse that scares me that
> has been running outside of Florida that I could
> see winning the race. I could see me using him as
> well on the Win end based on his odds and post
> position.
>
> So go ahead fire away at me cause I don\'t think
> the second coming of Seattle Slew is here among us
> but I think your an absolute fool to bet AP to win
> on any ticket in this years running of the KY
> Derby.

Winning the Derby and having brilliance are not mutually exclusive.

Also, I wouldn\'t say that Bodemeister got his \"balls kicked in\".

I think we can also say Point Given was a pretty decent horse.

It seems that we have 2 different discussions here.  You are saying he\'s a toss for the Derby, which at the low odds and physical issues isn\'t a bad idea.

That doesn\'t discount what many experienced observers have to say about this horse.  Losing in the Derby wouldn\'t mean that those opinions of AP aren\'t valid. Many exceptional horses have lost in the Derby and gone on to have excellent careers.

[covelj70]

I love the commitment to look for reasons to beat the favorite and so far be it from me to stop you there

I would only correct the part about not beating anyone.

He destroyed Texas Red who came back to make a mockery of the BC Juv field including Carpe Diem

Agree on the Oaklawn races but he can only run against who is entered against him

He may not get distance or may be short, etc but to say he hasn\'t beaten anyone isn\'t correct.

[Tavasco]

Further, it is a pretty short list of horses who got beat that are somebody! Frosted, Firing Line, Upstart? To date. This is so subjective about maturing three year olds. Far Right graded stakes wins?

[louisvilleguy1111]

if Texas Red is the horse you have to go to so you can prove what he beat then you don\'t have much of a case in my opinion.
As for Carpe vs Texas Red I would wager on Carpe anytime head to head. Alydar beat Affirmed but it never made him the better horse at anytime in their careers.

Bode was the race favorite ran a huge race and got his balls whacked at the 1/16 pole... Did he ever win a race other then the ARK Derby?
Point Given was a very nice horse best of his generation and if AP is Brillant then he will overcome the 20 horse Derby field that is what Brilliant is in my opinion. Doing things that look hard to overcome if not look impossible. We have not seen many Brillant horses in the last 20+ years I don\'t think, but maybe my standards are higher then most...

Yes he can run against only what is entered but that doesn\'t mean Baffert isn\'t smart enough to know where the second tier horses are vs the top horses. Get him to the big race in as easy best condition as possible and then see what you really have. He never had a problem running horses in his stable head to head in the past in big races. Point being people need to get a grip they have no idea by looking at his last two races how good AP really is. He could be the monster like most think, wouldn\'t surprise me one bit, but bottom line he is a HORRIBLE wager on top in the KY Derby... I hope he is 2-1 so let the hype begin.