american pharoah...paddock behavior question

[louisvilleguy1111]

Perhaps so. Thinking most big outfits that are looking for derby horses year end year out nominate everywhere not just to a certain race on the derby trail. But you could totally be correct and no one wanted to run agaisnt AP.


Good luck everyone...

[ajkreider]

You are right of course.

Carpe Diem\'s numbers are by far the worst of the leading contenders, and that\'s reason enough to toss him.

[moosepalm]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Okay. You guys know where you are, right? Who he
> beat? Here??


Very good point.  This board holds itself to higher standards of grammar.  

Cue Curtis, stage right.

[TGJB]

Pretty funny.

[magicnight]

Indeed! And he even got the \"stage right\" thing correct. I always get that confused.

[bellsbendboy]

Tossing this colt makes no sense to me.  Multiple grad one winner, resume flawless. Connections could not be any better. Two points; 1) see who Johnny rides and 2) this colt is better than his numbers! bbb

[mjellish]

Well, this is a figure making board.  So the discussion probably should start there.  But the top figure horse doesn\'t always win or hit the board, especially in this race.  They\'ve got to handle the stress to get the trip, and they\'ve got to get that extra 1/8th.  

Last year, when Chrome drew the 5 post I said he would not likely get the outside stalking trip he needed to run his race.  I based that on watching him trying to bite another horse in the stretch in an earlier race he ran when he got pinned inside.  He HATED being inside and freaked.  I figured he would get stuck inside at CD and waste his energy trying to get out.  I completely tossed him on most of my tickets.

Well, he received an outstanding ride, made his trip and won.  So I was wrong. And I was wrong again in the Preakness.  But I did get out in the Belmont.

This game is as much about playing percentages as anything else.  And I would still play that race that way all over again.  When people say you can beat the race but not the races I disagree 100%.  It\'s the opposite that\'s true.

I haven\'t seen AP do anything that makes me think he can\'t run his race.  But he hasn\'t done anything to make me know that he can and there\'s others that have.  To my eye, so far AP\'s just been fast enough to beat up on a bunch of over matched colts at a 1 1/16 and 1 1/8.  He hasn\'t taken dirt.  He hasn\'t overcome trouble.  He was on a tight schedule to get here.  And this crop is very, very good.  So I\'m not going to annoint him.  Quality Road looked unbeatable at 1 1/8, but I said right here on this board that he would never win at 1 1/4 and he never did.

Don\'t get me wrong.  I don\'t plan to burn up my money.  I\'ll see how AP trains. And if he looks lights out and draws well enough where u could see the race setting up for him then so be it.  But if u put a gun to my head right now and said how you gonna bet it, I say at the 4-1 or so odds- and more importantly as a heavy use on most exotic tickets- the percentage play is to go against him.

[Tavasco]

Usually I contend questions are irresponsible but I do want to hear you ring in on a few subjects. If you don\'t mind.

1. Handicapping objectivity

2. Stanford (The Horse)

3. Surprises of the Derby (good and bad)

4. Apparent shortage of GP closers

[TGJB]

MJ-- Re how the fast horses do, it\'s worth checking out how often the Derby winner is among the 3-4 fastest horses, meaning based on their tops.

[mjellish]

Just looking at the brisnet pp

Winner and last work at

Orb. CD

I\'ll Have Another HOL (but he was blowing out down the stretch at CD almost fast enough to be considered a work)

Animal Kingdom. CD

Super Saver. CD

Mine That Bird. CD

Big Brown.  CD

Street Sense. CD

Barbaro. CD

Giacomo. HOL

Smarty Jones. CD

Funny Cide. BEL

War Emblem. CD

Monarchos. CD

Fusaichi Pegasus   CD

[mjellish]

I know.  That\'s why I use figures and post here.  Animal kingdom strikes me as an exception, but he was coming off of synthetic and grass.

[miff]

Last year CC was knocked left and right because he was/is stiff in the am and wasn\'t physically impressive. So he goes out and easily wins the Derby and then the Preakness.

Fast/accomplishment/nice pattern trump all at the end of the day,check most previous winners.Problem this year is that 5 or 6 fit that profile.

[jbelfior]

MJ: I agree. If everyone is so high on AP then why no hype on Firing Line who beat up on bad horses as well. Plus he\'s already stretched the best horse in the race, albeit at a 1 1/16.
I have a nice future ticket on Carpe Diem but wasn\'t overwhelmed with his BG and have my reservations about Giant Causeways going a 1 1/4 on dirt (yes, I know he did it but not so sure it\'s something he passed along).

Tough call-- gun to my head I say Dortmund in a close one.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[covelj70]

I couldn\'t agree with this more.

Good post.

And I was one of the ones knocking CC for being stuff in the AM!

[miff]

\"And I was one of the ones knocking CC for being stuff in the AM!\"


Jim,

You might not have if you knew CC always looked that way before blowing away his competition.CC did look much more tucked up pre Belmont though.

Mike