A Glimmer Of Hope

[Tavasco]

Assuming no surprises next week with American Pharaoh as impressive as Dortmund to go with no surprises this week and the 2015 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs (YUMS) has this vertical player some what depressed.

I glanced back at the 2000 running this classic when Fusaichi Pegasus proved the betting public astute by winning @ 2.30/1. Aptitude (a nice colt) ran second @ just about 12/1. Impeachment (part of a three horse entry which also included Trippi and Commendable) ran 3rd @ 6/1. That $2.00 trifecta paid $435 with a trifecta pool of 13 million.

Back in those ancient times there were only fourteen betting interests, including a second entry (this one from Godolphin) and a three horse field group. Neither took too much money and each went off at about 20/1 and out of the super.

There were some colts that year that are getting more ink today than they did then e.g., More Than Ready (4th), War Chant (9th), Exchange Rate, High Yield, Graeme Hall, Hal\'s Hope, Captain Steve (all up the track that day).

So I\'m thinking dreaming, as long as BB doesn\'t put two in the trifecta or win a similar price may be possible. Several fast horses are going to be 10-15/1. By the way the $2.00 exacta in 2000 was $66. Certainly these are meager prices compared to what we\'ve become accustomed to in recent history and beating Baffert will perpetuate that from which dreams are made.

If by some fluke of fate BB couples two or all three of his we may have a negative show pool which couldn\'t happen to a greater organization than CDI.

This is of course pure conjecture and subjective with a month of happenstance still to persevere. That\'s a lot of time to convince ourselves that the California Horses are not really that fast (despite Lord Nelson\'s quirky performance) and Baffert won\'t win. Starting Monday after an Easter Sunday with family, food and loved ones!

[richiebee]

Tavasco Wrote:
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> This is of course pure conjecture and subjective
> with a month of happenstance still to persevere
> .... starting Monday after an Easter
> Sunday with family, food and loved ones!

Happy Easter Tavasco.

Many of us can appreciate the fine distinction between \"family\" and \"loved
ones.\"

That famous old handicapper, Plato, once called for the partial abolition of
the family unit. A distinguished professor of mine (I won\'t drop a name) once
stated that he agreed with Plato on this score, that the family was responsible
for the perpetuation of stupid ideas and vile prejudices, and that for this
reason all children are obligated to break away from the family unit as soon as
practical.

Thankfully for pagan T-generates everywhere, GP and SA will be open for worship
today.

[TreadHead]

I hope this wasn\'t meant to be the beginning of another California figures debate.  Lord Nelson and Kobe\'s Back performances yesterday seem to add yet more evidence that the figures are plenty accurate.

[vp612]

I use the other numbers and I bet both of them.

[TGJB]

You should email Barry Irwin. Oh wait, he compared both sets of figures for a long time before coming to a conclusion.

[vp612]

I don\'t have this answer, you do .I dare you to tell the truth.How many left them,how many left you.

[TGJB]

Are you serious? If it\'s not at least 10-1 my way I\'m not sitting here right now.

[touchgold]

well one of the horses used in team valors reasons for leaving, ran awful yesterday with numbers as good as 2nd and 3rd place horses in the blue grass. Its one horse, i get it, and it can easily be explained as a bounce/didnt like track as opposed to a bad number. Time will tell I guess.

[TGJB]

Correct on all counts.

Barry\'s decision was based on a lot more than two horses, as he said they were \"the last straw\". Another one they mentioned was Speechify, who Jake gave a 10 first out when we gave it 1 3/4.

It\'s also worth mentioning that another horse looked different in the BG, per Vito\'s pre-race post on the Jake board. The winner.

[touchgold]

wow... a 10 vs a 1 3/4? Thats crazy. Well the BG was the free race over there. Other than the winner, nothing looked fast enough going in to compete in the derby.

[miff]

Vito,

Loyal Rags user and undoubtedly a nice guy.Unless you\'ve studied and formulated conversions(Beyer to TG to Rags to TF-US) you would be unaware that far too many Rag figs, compared to the other fig makers cited,are NOT reflective of performance. Most importantly, they often do not \"stand up\" vs the cited fig makers.


Assuming you are happy with Rags, then stay but I have empirical data amassed over years which show that the most accurate and consistent SPEED figures, which hold up, is Beyer by a pole.TG by a pole as PERFORMANCE figs.

Good luck

Mike

[TGJB]

On average our figures run about 4 points faster (Miff?), but since Ragozin left-- and to some extent even before-- everything they do is all over the place, depending on circuit, distance etc.

[vp612]

Look if you are going to quote me be factual.The winner had a very good 2 year old number and his 3yr old number was fast (an 8)you probably had him at 2.I don\'t play 2/5 shots.Let them beat me and he did.The horse I played went off at 15-1 and ran poorly.It happens.

[vp612]

How can you talk about beyer numbers when he doesn\'t do ground.?One more thing I play patterns,condition lines,etc.Not once have I ever heard anyone here talk about a condition line.Look you seem like a nice guy I am judt a man with an opinion.I will have a derby pick and it won\'t be any of BBT\'S horses and will be 15-1.As far as these numbers go 10 races 6 pair ups,not for me.

[vp612]

Sorry my horse went off 10-1 and beat unrivaled(who didn\'t belong in the race on Ragozin numbers) by 5 lengths)