A Glimmer Of Hope

[Boscar Obarra]

vp612 Wrote:
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> Yes I am illogical because I dare use a better
> product then this pair up mambo you sell.

Anything like this?
https://youtu.be/N_T35xt9iuM?t=33s

[Tavasco]

It is amazing how much noise a couple of voices can make.

I\'m reminded of a day back in 2004 or 2005 in the VIP room @ Tampa Downs. VIP was a stretch, but one did get to rub elbows with the likes of George Steinbrenner (I thought he\'d be taller) & Satish Sanaan and his private teller.

I was there with my brother from Sonoma who could care less about horse racing being an artist and NorCal foodie. Suddenly the room was interrupted by two owners arguing over who knows what.

Picture snowbirds, lots of gold jewelery, sunglasses and rolled up programs. They were toe to toe and their faces getting all the more purple as they ran out of breath from shouting at each other. The whole room was somewhat alarmed and staring.

My wonderfully creative brother stood walked up to the duo shoehorned his nose into the fracas and SHOUTED AT THE TOP OF HIS VOICE IS THIS A CONTEST TO SEE WHO CAN MAKE THE MOST NOISE? I\"M PRETTY LOUD. CAN I PLAY TOO?

Well the two arguing sort wandered off in different directions looking a little dazed and confused but with receding blood pressure. My little brother has amazed me on many occasions.

True Story!

[vp612]

OK,I play patterns because horses don\'t go up or down in a straight line.I have looked at your guys sheets and the consistent pair ups make it very difficult for me to find any pattern.I believe horses if healthy improve from 2to 3 ,3to 4 and 4-5(years of age).On RAGOZIN I can see it ,small moves which are very strong to me.With this guy I just don;t see it.Look there are all kinds of patterns that I play.Let;s take Bolo\'s pattern he ran 5\'\' late 2 yr old.He comes back first out 3yr old 4\'\' a one point move which is very strong.The winners pattern was also strong but he was 1/2.Bolo was 5-1 and I will take the odds every time.Of course Smith tried to win from the parking lot,but that is part of the deal.I have never heard anyone say here \'\'Oh so and so just came back first out 3 or 4 years old  and made a small move ,never.

[miff]

Vito,

Guess your issue is the interpretation of pattern reads, or subtle move ups et al vs some of the interpretations here.If you put 10 sheet readers in a room, you could get 5-7 different interpretations looking at the same race.So lack of, or less pairs makes Rags better?


By the way, your comments re TG pairs are pretty much with established turf horses with many races vs lightly raced dirt horses cycling in and out of form.TG does have many pairs but when you look and convert from other figure makers, they are not off the wall.Admit that is not the case with Rags which tend to be far more spread out,so to speak. Strange with the basic methodology of both being very similar.

Next time you see an older turf race on Rags take a look and tell me how many horses run close to a certain figure several times in a row, you might be a little surprised. The nature of turf racing, very slow early, very fast late lends itself to horses running pretty tight figs assuming they fire.Tight range turf figs is something seen on many credible fig makers, including Rags.

Mike

[TGJB]

Mike-- The things we both try to measure are the same. The way we do it-- methodology-- is not at all (see Changing Track Speeds in our Archives, which I know you have).

[vp612]

No argument with turf horses.They tend to stay in a very tight range and sometimes run  the same number or close to it 4 or 5 times in row.Because of that the pattern reads are less frequent, with odds plays being the way to go.

[miff]

JB,

Aware but the differences are so profound and so often now that it has to be more than just the track changing speed.Have told you when we last spoke what I believe is the root cause, would rather not go into it here.



Mike

[touchgold]

I get what vito is saying..having used sheets way more than tg....I think that as vito says when a horse goes 7 6 on sheets, a lightly raced horse that is, u can play for a 5 or a 4 if youre getting great odds especially if other horses in race are off jumps, etc....whereas with tg, if a horse is running the same 7 6, and just looking at the previous rotws, rarely will analysis point to that horse with much of a chance to jump a few points. So when I do use tg, I think I tend to stick more towards the numbers then the patterns I would normally  look for with the sheets...if that makes any sense at all.

[ajkreider]

I was thinking just the opposite.  Seems like the analysis often contains a \"being lightly raced, Stewball could always move forward\" - stated as a caveat.  Which I take as worth a play at the right (generous) odds.

[mjellish]

Or slow early, fast late race shapes tend to compress figures.   Now take that and throw it in a dogmatic, pattern reading machine.   See if it burns...