Hyman Roth

[jerry]

For anyone interested in some handicapping amusement, download race 7 at Laurel for Wednesday, November 12 and come to terms with, or help me come to terms with, how Hyman Roth, 20-1 in the morning line, opens at 9-5, drifts to 4-1 before getting knocked back down to 3-1 at post time and finishes 3rd. I had been waiting for this guy to run back after his rough trip in NY on September 20th and, by sheer luck, found him slipped into this $25,000 claimer at Laurel which, on paper, looked like he had an awful lot to make up to be competitive. Somebody other than me followed him here and it must have been a quiet ride home.

[Rick B.]

jerry Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> For anyone interested in some handicapping
> amusement, download race 7 at Laurel for
> Wednesday, November 12 and come to terms with, or
> help me come to terms with, how Hyman Roth, 20-1
> in the morning line, opens at 9-5...

Based on previous post-time odds, overall turf record,
and trainer Michele Nevin showing 2 wins in 2 starts at
Laurel, I\'d say that the ML 20-1 was way, way off for
this horse.

Make the ML 5-1 -- much more plausible -- and you have
a simple early action horse that drifted back up to 7/2,
had some road trouble (see chart) and still managed to
finish 3rd.

No scandal...just sloppy linemaking. All IMO, of course.

[richiebee]

I caught a nice bet on Hyman Roth on Belmont Day 2013. Ever since then I have
respected Hyman Roth, but I never trusted Hyman Roth....

You might try again tomorrow at Aquedump, where Myrlanski is 30/1 ML in race 8.

[Dick Powell]

Great line, Richie. You beat me to it.
Dick

[Boscar Obarra]

My trip note for Hyman on 9/20

took $ again late,  ch SG- , then stop badly , ???rat

In case you didn\'t get the cheat sheet, rat is not a good thing, but admittedly, they have been know to win , especially when in against even bigger rats.

[jerry]

All true but take a look at his sheet in the Redboard room tomorrow and, even with Nevin\'s record at Laurel, he still looks overmatched in my opinion.

[jerry]

Thanks for the tip. I\'ll look at him.

[jerry]

Then a lot of $ burned on a rat today.

[richiebee]

Jerry:

Myrlanski might well run to his 30/1 odds. I just thought it was neat that Hyman
Roth (fictional character in the Godfather) and Myrlanski (named for the real
life character Roth was based on) will have ran within a couple of days of each
other.

With regards to Morning Lines, this semi retired handicapper now prefers to get
the earliest version of DRF possible, the advance edition which has no program
numbers and no morning lines. As we all should know, the TGs, advance or
otherwise, have no MLs. I like to choose my runners in the horizontal wagers
without any awareness of the ML.

Concerning favorites (and this was discussed more in the \"Long Island Handicap\"
thread) I like to look for short price favorites from low percentage (less than
10% strike rate) outfits; I look to toss them, even if they have a numerical or
class edge, or endured \"bad trips\". To quote the \"Big Tuna\", \"you are what your
record says you are.\" (But also look for habitual low percentage operations which
suddenly win races in bunches, such as one NYRA trainer who trained an Eclipse
award winning NYB filly in the early 90s but has been a 6% - 8% operator for the
last 25 years and has won with alarming frequency over the past 2 months).

[Rick B.]

jerry Wrote:
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> All true but take a look at his sheet in the
> Redboard room tomorrow and, even with Nevin\'s
> record at Laurel, he still looks overmatched in my
> opinion.

I did take a look at his sheet, and forget the horse
for a moment; this trainer is getting more than her
fair share of new tops and pairs, in several categories.

How does 32% new tops in the last 90 days grab you?

True, it\'s 8 tops out of 25 starters, but how many head
does Nevin have, anyway? She is getting runners.

Now, back to our friend Hyman Roth...

He ran a 9 at the Spa two races back as the 3-1 favorite,
3 wide around both turns and finishing a non-threatening
5th, about 5 lengths back. How that translates into 20-1.
for essentially the same class and conditions two races
later is beyond me.

Overmatched? Compared to the Rudy horse, who was running 6\'s,
OK, sure...but the Rudy horse\'s post position stunk; it made sense
for the public to shop around in this race, and it\'s no surprise
that quite a few bettors landed on Hyman.

I think you got snookered by a bad ML, and got your hopes up
unnecessarily. Sorry about that. Perform a few smell tests next
time, especially the one where you peruse the horse\'s previous
off odds in his last 5 or 6 races -- this is a strong indication
of where to start for today\'s expected price.

(And if it says \"Trainer: Nevin, Michelle\", fahgedaboudit.)

[richiebee]

Rick:

Good analysis, but perhaps unfair (or maybe overly fair) not to mention the Dutrow connection...

[IK]

Cicc\' , a porta!

[miff]

Fredo \" I\'m smart\"...... Soon to be uttered by NYRA CEO Kay.

[jerry]

Thanks everyone. Enjoyed the banter. Also note the trip note on Hyman Roth from yesterday\'s race.

\"steadied when blocked in upper stretch, angled to the three path in mid stretch, eased back inside near the sixteenth pole and rallied gamely.\"

Maybe next time.

[vp612]

Keep your friends close and your enemies closer\"