Modern Love

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Bobby Frankel\'s Derby Record:

1990 - Pendleton Ridge - 13th DI 3.O CD .83
1990 - Burnt Hills     - 14th  
2000 - Aptitude        - 2nd
2002 - Medaglia d\'Oro  - 4th
2003 - Empire Maker    - 2nd
2003 - Peace Rules     - 3rd  DI 4.5 CD 1.0

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2003/derby_history/derby_charts/trainers/217.html

Funny how a good horse can\'t be found or trained up for a decade and then they are all good horses.

I don't want to lose out
I want to win
Get things done

I catch the paper boy
The form don't really change
He\'s running with the wind
And I\'ll never wave bye-bye

So, I try...I try

There's no sign of life
It's just the power to charm
I'm lying in the rain
And I\'ll never wave bye-bye

So I try...I try

Never gonna fall for
Modern love - walks beside me
Modern love - runs on by
Modern love - gets me to Churchill on time
Churchill on time - terrifies me
Churchill on time - makes me party
Churchill on time - puts my trust in God and man

God and man - no confessions
God and man - no religion
God and man - You don't believe in modern love?

It's not really work
It's just the power to charm
He\'s still running with the wind
And I\'ll never wave bye bye

And, I try...I try

Modern love, Modern love, Modern love...Modern la aa ove.

[Silver Charm]

CtC,

Frankel has no shot in the Derby.

There was a huge rail bias Saturday at Aque and Master David rode it the entire way.

[jbelfior]

Silver Charm--

You are correct, there was a huge inside bias that day.

I have 2 schools of thought on this. TAPIT overcame both a severe speed bias and an inside bias by closing wide. Does the effort take out too much starch after having had only one prep race and after being sick. Or, is the effort so overpowering that TAPIT has stamped himself head and shoulders above the rest of the 3yos. At low odds in the Derby, I\'ll bet that TAPIT bounces.

Now you have MASTER DAVID. Off of a 2 month layoff, Frankel had a tough decision to deal with. How much do you crank MD up?? The horse obviously needed graded earnings and his 2nd place finish, while aided by the bias, gets him to Louisville fitter without being squeezed too dry.  

Which one would you bet on to move forward off of the Wood???



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[shanahan]

I thought Tapit won fur fun...not hit in the last 1/16th at all...

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'m looking forward to seeing a better replay of the Wood. Tapit was a fraction of a stride from missing the Derby. I\'ll be  surprised if the whip didn\'t come out. It was a long stretch grind for him once he reached the leaders and I believe with the early energy savings he should have motored by more easily. I\'m not gonna be at ease with him until the barn comments on that erratic stretch behavior, which is not to say that I\'ll believe what the barn says. Caveat, I haven\'t analyzed the race yet it may be the competition was that good coming home.

I did not detect a rail bias. I thought the one turn races were quick and naturally the quick horses found themselves on the rail. I\'ll review the charts for the last few days there, but if there was a rail bias it escaped me. If there was it certainly didn\'t help Value Plus or Sinister G.

Regarding the Wood time and fractions, there were only a couple two turn races Wood day and one was a distance rarely run. The quickish times of the one turn races can\'t be compared to races over a part of the track that the others didn\'t encounter. Its a ticklish day in that regard. Making speed figures for two turns on days like Wood Memorial day is one of the most perilous aspects to figure making. Its hard to say with certainty how fast or slow that race was.

Generally, a 1:49 in New York is better than a 1:49 at Santa Anita or Keeneland and not as good as a 1:49 at Oaklawn.

I might as well come out of the closet. I like rooms full of beautiful naked woman. I\'m talking about the Smarty Jones Closet. He\'s gonna be low odds and nothing I say is gonna drive them down further because there are issues to overcome. Pedigree being one. But he\'s been my favorite for a long time, though I had the itchy feeling about Eurosilver and now I don\'t have to worry about that.  My main concern with Smarty is cumulative big efforts and I thought he looked a little tired after the Ark Derby. Borregos inroads the last sixteenth are not what I\'m referring to. The other problem is rating. I\'d like to see him rate in 3rd or 4th, but he seems intent to want to rate just off the leader. My instructions would probably be to rate just off of Pollards Vision who I think is also a much better horse than people realize. If Smarty can overcome the big efforts and rate a little further back behind Lionheart, Sinister G. and Pollards Vision. (Hes shown no inclination to do it yet) I think he\'s the easiest kind of winner. I\'ll be comfortable with a 47 and change half at Churchill and I don\'t think they\'ll get down significantly faster than that. I think Smarty is going to win the Derby and I don\'t think its gonna be close. I have to figure the T number for the Ark is tops for the 9 mark preps with Pollard\'s race 2nd. (Since reconsidered after analyzing the Bluegrass card)

CtC



Post Edited (04-13-04 00:11)

[HP]

One thing is for sure, Tapit was not CRANKED for the Wood, because Dickinson doesn\'t operate that way. This does not bode well for the other contenders. HP

[kev]

LOW-ODDS, what do you mean by low odds?? I think he will be around 7 or 8-1, I think Tapit will be around those odds also, if he runs in the derby.

[ezgoer89]

We all know Dickinson\'s record winning with odd training patterns. However, Tapit is just TOO SLOW. A 4 top going into the Wood, he probably paired that at best considering he was 1w on the first turn. He beat Master David who had a 6 top, Swingforthefences with a 4 top, and Value Plus who completed a nice Pletchered 0 - 2 - X. If Tapit is in the Arky Derby or Blue Grass he\'s a minimum five lengths behind.

One can only pray he\'s the favorite on Derby Day. A slowish horse who may not have broken through is 2 yo top and will be trying to weave through a 20 horse field from the back of the pack.

[mbeychok]

I think you are wrong on Tapit\'s number. I think master david had a 2 top. he rode the rail and assuming he paired it up or did a little worse, tapit was 6 wide on the far turn and lost lots of ground. i would shocked if tapit didnt run a new top.  I suspect a 2 1/2 or so and he looks like he could pair or move forward in derby.  as for odds, he\'ll be at least 10-1.  we\'ll know on the number soon right Jerry?

[HP]

Tapit was wide on the second turn. I think his Wood number will be competitive, and no way will it be \"five lengths\" behind the Blue Grass and Ark. Derby winners.

I\'m pretty sure I\'ll be betting against Smarty Jones. He was second on my \"loser\'s list\" behind Read the Footnotes. Master David ran a 2-3/4 as a 2yo. I thought Swingforthefences was poised for a big race, so what do I know? HP

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Someone said it here and I forget who, but they said: \"pedigree just isn\'t as important anymore with the nutrition, training and \"enhancment\" advances.\"  I think thats very true. Pedigree is still a factor but its relative.

Smarty\'s first number was a 5. Whoa! Then he fired off the easiest kind of Zed. Whatdidyasay? Then another Zed his first 3 year old race. Then he got his rest and his return was you guessed it another Zed. Holycowoli!  Then a three point move or so forward to a -3.3 I\'m guessing the Ark was a negative, not a 3.3 but a negative nevertheless. I don\'t see anything about that pattern that shows it took Smarty apart. He\'s always been fast he\'s improved every step of the way, with the possible exception of the last, a race over a \"muddy\" surface from a far outside post. He\'s improved a total of 8-9 points, winning five races in \"stakes\" company.
I think that improvement is reasonable and the scary thing is he may even have faster in him...lol

Let\'s see if he comes unglued and doesn\'t make the race.

Obviously, if you like Smarty, you have to like Borrego and he rates a significant challenger with me. But you have to remember Smarty has been spotting these horses weight. His next race is the first one in a while where he goes in on equal footing. But then, I think RTF has a shot too.

lol

CtC

[Michael D.]

why can\'t they give TCE or smarty a \"0\", and tapit a \"2.5\"? i have no idea really, but it would seem within the realm of possibility.

[Silver Charm]

HP wrote,

\"I thought Swingforthefences was poised for a big race, so what do I know?

More than you think I just finished watching the replay of the Wood and this was clearly the KEY RACE of the spring.

TCE is the only thing coming out of the Blue Grass and the trip will probably kill him Derby Day. Smarty Jones has Demons Begone written all over him.

The thing with Tapit is he will probably be brought in to CD about Thursday night before Derby Day and have maybe two half mile breezes in his from at something like 53 4/5. The bigger the mystery the more Dickinson will be eating it up.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'ve forgotten, did Demone\'s Begone bleed through lasix or was it his first episode with bleeding?

If you\'re predicting a bleed for Smarty, how dare you?...lol If you think he\'s gonna be stressed by Lionheart, he may, but Lionheart will have to run with a lot more than he\'s already shown.

I\'m predicting the Lukas horses to finish so far out of the picture they don\'t even make the race charts.



CtC

[Michael D.]

swing is by boston harbor, who is getting a bunch of short winded horses. he ran a decent 9f over a speedball track at GP, then pulled a minor fade job going 8 1/2f at Tam. the horse figured to give it up in the stretch in the wood, and did. his wood # is not going to be good.