Modern Love

[Silver Charm]

TGJB,

Please put all the Derby Horses Sheets up tomorrow as the Race of the Week before a big argument breaks out.

[Michael D.]

silver,
 i don\'t think you are going to like what you see if he does that.

[Silver Charm]

This from an article by Jay Privman on DRF.com.

The Cliff\'s Edge got the weekend\'s best Beyer Speed Figure, a 111.

Smarty Jones earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 107.

Tapit got a 98 Beyer Figure for his victory in the Wood Memorial.

Tapit was extremely wide and ran against a brutal bias.

Let me update this last sentence is my thoughts not Mr. Privmans. Even though I\'m sure he agrees with me.



Post Edited (04-12-04 22:15)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Swingforthefences is a Boston Harbor and his fade in the last sixteenth tends to elevate the performance of some of the others to my mind. He\'d run a good 9 marks at Hallandale and it appeared he got tired at the end of the Wood, so the track, at least at two turns, may not have been as speed sustaining as everyone thinks. Silver called the Wood a \"Key Race\" and its very possible the efforts of Master David, Tapit and Eddington were better than the one turn races suggest. If it is key only the efforts of Master David and Tapit would appear to be significant, because Eddington, like SFTF, will in all likelihood be watching the next one.

If you\'re looking at comparisions SFTF, Mustanfar and Limehouse finished under a blanket in the Tampa Bay Derby and while SFTF was right there at the end of the Wood, Mustanfar and Limehouse fell significantly short of TCE and Lionheart. These things are relative due to a host of factors, but considering them isn\'t wasted time. I think its probable that SFTF ran a nice race, at least better than Mustanfar and Limehouse. Its also possible that TCE and Lionheart are better 9 mark horses right now than Tapit or Master David. Lets see what the figures say.

I made this post without seeing Silvers Beyer Numbers post...very interesting.  Yes everyone would like to know the \"Gold Standard\" figure for those races. Regardless, TGJB has to be pleased TCE seems to be coming to hand. Another factor thats in his favor is he is nimble horse. He\'s gonna be able to do things in a large field a big plodder can\'t.
 
Bit Player turned me on to the Bris numbers

Beyer, Bris

TCE:          111,115
Smarty Jones: 107,105
Tapit:         98, 98

I\'ll obviously have to look more closely at the charts. My suspicion is they got TCE and Lionheart a little high and Tapit a little low. I don\'t think Aqueduct was speed favoring at two turns, but I don\'t think it was near as fast a track at two turns either.

If the numbers are accurate my backing of Smarty may have been premature...I won\'t be held to it...lol

Toscano is apparently pulling Sinister G. from the Derby picture. Proabably a careful move on the basis of the last race. He is a bit better than that though.http://www.drf.com/tc/trail/2004/news.html

CtC



Post Edited (04-12-04 23:07)

[Silver Charm]

Nice work.

We will know more tomorrow when TGJB puts all the numbers up.

[ronwar]

Tapit, Smarty Jones, and The Cliffs Edge seem to be all the talk. And they should seeing as they were victorious this weekend.  But IMO The winner of this years Kentucky Derby finished second in his final derby prep.  I haven\'t decide on which one, but I offer up these three choices:

1) Lion Heart.  I know...I know... the breeding, his style is not conducive to winning the derby and he was ran down at a flat mile and a 1 1/8.  But here are the goods; He\'s awfully fast and to borrow some notes from CtC regarding Smarty, \"first number was a 5. Whoa! Then he fired off the easiest kind of Zed. Whatdidyasay? Then another Zed his first 3 year old race. (thanks CtC)\" and I\'m just guessing, but I think he paired up that last(0.5) with 3 wks to the big day.  The way it looks the race maybe setting up nicely. If Smith doesn\'t but another sub 23 quarter in him, he figures to open up on the suspect front runners, and with Smarty coming in with a 0-2-X pattern(i\'m guessing) and everyone else weaving through horses...

2) Borrego.  Talk about a derby profile, this guy fits it!  And if he paired his last or had a small new top like I think, he figures to be sitting in the cat birds seat turning for home.  Awfully dangerous!

3) Imperialism.  Okay, he was Dq\'d into second, who\'s keeping track. I\'m not sure this guy would have gotten up if he wasn\'t cut off, but I like his little guy.  He has a good foundation, has shown steady improvement, and I think he\'s just getting good.  Hoping that last was another 2 (with trouble) setting him up for another stepforward on 4 weeks.

Just think, we still have another 2.5 weeks to change our mind.  lol

[HP]

I\'m glad others got the better Beyers. What are the odds of a Dickinson-trained horse going BACKWARDS in this situation, where he has an apparently healthy horse to train up to the race? No way this horse will be 10-1 on Derby day either.

It will be hard to figure TCEdge\'s chances before the draw. Liking the track is a plus, and may be a bigger factor than anything you may have against Shane Sellers.

Frankel apparently has someone who can help him in Kentucky.

Out of the longer priced horses I\'ve seen sheets for, I don\'t think Pro Prado hurt his chances this past weekend. We\'ll see if he gets in. Kimmel training Friends Lake up to the race is interesting too.

Quite a few longshots will be fast enough to make the tri this year. I can\'t wait to hear from the annual \"this crop is no good\" guys. Probably half of the field will be able to hit a 1 or a 2.

Should be a nice few weeks for nerds who look at bulletin boards, and pedigrees, etc... HP

[jbelfior]

ronwar--

All valid points, however I don\'t agree on IMPERIALISM. His late kick will be severely compromised at @ 1 1/4m.

BORREGO--I need to see TGJB\'s Arkansas Derby numbers. This one is certainly a major contender and Espinoza committed yesterday. Very versatile. Can sit close and still finish, or sit back and uncork a nice turn move. Finished second in 3 impressive prep races.

LION HEART-- Let\'s put it this way; anyone who tries to get even this close to him during the first mile will be looking for the barn. He punishes all pace horses that try to get near him. Can stagger home and get lucky enough to hold the show spot.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[fasteddie]

I got my wish....almost! Smarty won, not by 10, but he won and made himself the DD fav; Zito wins the Derby w/Cliff, and unless there is a verrry fast pace, the deep closers are doomed!(Tapit and Imperialism)

Smarty was dead a 1/16th from the wire and switched back to his left lead. It\'s a shame to kill him in Ky.but 5 mil is on the line.

This race should be a stalkers\' dream!


My superfecta ticket:

 Cliff keyed over David, Eddington, Borrego, Pro Prado and Tapit.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Smarty came home in an extrapolated 25:08, which was faster than Tapit. The track was muddy. He carried 2 less lengths than Borrego and the half mile mark has quick for that length race at Oaklawn. He may have gotten tired near the end. Regarding Tapits closing fraction, I have not believed the track was as kind to the horses at two turns as it was at one. That said the stretch at Aqueduct was obviously a good part of the track and its my belief that Tapits closing fraction was aided there. I make it slower than it appears vis a vie the other 9 mark races.

If you\'re looking for a nice final fraction. TCE and Lionheart both threw one and its the fact that makes me most prone to say they ran a big race in the Bluegrass.

CtC



Post Edited (04-13-04 13:34)

[tildatoo]

So if Smarty Jones went in 25 for the last quarter and 12 and 2 for the last eighth, that would mean his final eighth was faster than his penultimate one. Regardless of switching leads, looking tired, etc., the raw time says he wasn\'t slowing down. I have no idea whether he will \"bounce\" or not in the Kentucky Derby, but considering he has had the least grueling preparation, a nice progression distance-wise, and hasn\'t really bounced yet in his career, I am more than ready to take all gifts other bettors will give me on Derby Day. I have no idea whether he can get a mile and a quarter after being right up there with a grueling pace, but I am very willing to bet at anything above 3-1 odds that he will. The way his people are talking, this horse knows he\'s an alpha, and confidence has a lot to do with winning. I wish they would send him straight to Churchill, but I know that Keeneland is just about horse heaven, as far as grazing and open space go. I just don\'t like the training track there very much.

[pgsheets]

I know this is a little simplistic for many of the players here, but if you look at the actual 3/4 times of each winner on Saturday and add it to their final time, you get the following: ( in seconds )

Smarty Jones : 71 3/5 + 109 2/5 = 181
The Cliff    : 72 2/5 + 109 2/5 = 181 4/5
Tapit        : 72 1/5 + 109 3/5 = 181 4/5 *

Borego       : 72 1/5 + 109 4/5 = 182
Lion Heart   : 71     + 109 3/5 = 180 3/5
Eddington    : 71 4/5 + 109 4/5 = 181 3/5 *

Again, no trip or variants taken into account.
All three races were reasonbly similiar in 1/2, 3/4, and final time.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

The Ark

22.64, 46.95, 1:11.71, 1:36.87, 1:49.41

Smarty on the fractions

2f-2nd by .5 -22.74
4f-2nd by .5 -47.05-24.31
6f-1st------1.11.71-24.66
8f-1st------1.36.86-25.15
9f-1st------1.49.41-12.55-25.10

I think you have to ask yourself was he being asked at the end and you have to remember what he overcame. He had to blitz the first fraction and he did and then he was the typical energy allocation machine he\'s been.

CtC

[jbelfior]

I think SMARTY JONES is a terrific 3 yo. I also think that Oaklawn Park is one of the most speed biased tracks in the country.

Besides, does anyone think that SJ is going to have an easy time passing LION HEART on the far turn. This is not PURGE we are talking about here. Stalkers who pounce like SJ always look great doing it versus allowance horse frontrunners.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[MO]

Smarty had an unreal figure going in to the Ark Derby. That coupled with the aforementioned lead change in my opinion makes this horse very vulnerable on Derby Day.