Chrome Can

[mjellish]

His sheet to me said it\'s now or never for a forward move, and he was galloping so well and training like he was sitting on a good race.  Figured to get a good set up stalking whatever happened in front of him.  I liked SI as well but was a little worried about him not getting the distance if he did the work on Chrome early.  Surprised at tactics employed by the connections to take back early as I thought either SI or Bayern would glue themselves outside of Chrome nose to nose and try to pin him inside.  

Was very surprised by the ride on the Filly to.  Yuk.

[jerry]

Well then Castellano has the same problem as the horse because he slammed on the breaks too.

[jbelfior]

MJ:
Same thinking by the public last year allowed Malice to pay 15-1.He was anything but a grinder.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[jimbo66]

MJ,

Respect your opinion, but if u are looking for a way for chrome to get beat, hoping for a boxed in trip is going to be fruitless.  And a really poor bet.  He didn\'t get boxed in a 19 horse cavalry charge.  He didn\'t get boxed in a Preakness race with an inside post and lots of speed horses.  He isn\'t going to get boxed in a slow paced, wide sweeping turns, 1.5 mile race.   He has too much tactical speed and has too many gears.   Espinoza literally starts and stops on him to get position.  The earlyish move by social inclusion approaching the turn forced Espinozas hand a bit early and for most horses this would have resulted in being caught late.  Instead he came home in 19.   Serious race horse time.

Not saying that betting against him in the Belmont might not be the play, but if so it won\'t be because I am hoping he gets a bad trip.   He is way too tactical for that to happen and the odds of it happening are tiny.   The field in the Belmont will be tougher.  Much tougher.  If they all come.   Tonalist is the top contender IMO but of course is going to be a wise guy horse.   But danza and commanding curve are runners.   And yes Joe B, if I could get 15-1 on social inclusion I would take it.  As much as I think the trainer is a fool and the jockey not much better, he could finally get the relaxed type lead he got at gulfstream in a 1.5 mile race with few speed horses.   And that economic stride he showed that day he could be dangerous at a big price.

But make no mistake, chrome has to stumble and go backwards to lose.  All this talk on this board for the last month about so many horses as fast or some even faster, just isn\'t true.  Chrome\'s two races prior to the derby and his Preakness are much faster than anybody else in the field, period, with one single exception, the social inclusion perfect trip win at gulf.  That has proven out and things like Arod and kid Cruz being as fast are just silly.  I leave the derby out of the discussion because as visually impressive as it was, the time was poor by any standard.  Hard to gauge the race from a figure perspective.  

Good luck

[mjellish]

I agree Jimbo.  And like I said, I am through trying to beat Chrome hoping someone will box him in.  I still want to see him prove he can win if that happens, but I\'m not going to waste anymore money on it.  

I would be all in against SI in the Belmont at any price and I don\'t care if the pace projects him to be on the lead by himself with a 50 second half mile time.  This colt runs, looks and acts like a miler.  Period.  Connections made a mistake not to take the money down and some risk off the table when they had the chance, especially if there was still room to be involved with the colt moving forward.

[jimbo66]

Ah.  Sorry, misread your last sentence.  Thought u were saying the opposite, that u were going to wager that he gets boxed in again.

As for social inclusion, we will have to agree to disagree.  I know gulfstream can elongate distance limitations of speed horses, but social inclusions big race there showed me a horse that can go longer with a good trip.   I think he got two bad trips last two races.  I can\'t write him off based on those two races.  I can\'t say he can go long off those races, but can\'t write him off either.  It would have been nice to see how he could have ran without losing it before the race, with a little more than a 3 furlong breeze to prep and with a good trip.

Unfortunately he will have the same trainer and jockey for the Belmont, so like I said, I would need 15-1 or so to take him.

[richiebee]

SI Met Mile?

[jbelfior]

Disagree he\'s a miler. Please put a real jockey on this horse.

Good Luck,
Joe B

[P-Dub]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You sure of that? The Dosage guys used to make
> some amazing claims. No reason it would work on
> the TC and not the 5th at Suffolk.


You\'re comparing Dosage to the inherent characteristics of a horse??

Dosage is manufactured.  Herd instincts aren\'t.

Nobody is saying its the end all to handicapping, but to ignore its existence is silly.

Also, nobody is saying it makes a slow horse beat a fast horse.  I mentioned this the last time Thomas was talked about. If we are talking about horses in the same ballpark, ability wise, apparently it can make a difference.

TC horses are in the peak of health, at least most of them.  I doubt you can say the same about the 5th at Suffolk.

You are a numbers guy, which is fine. You can choose to ignore it, thats your right. You seem a little defensive about the subject.

[TGJB]

Pdub-- both are attempts by humans to analyze the characteristics of horses, both have claims made about their efficacy. I\'m not at all defensive about it, but if it works for one group it should work for all. You are deciding to put \"health\" into the equation-- a) why should it matter, b) who says they\'re all equally healthy, etc. etc....

We don\'t measure characteristics here. We measure performance.

[sekrah]

jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Disagree he\'s a miler. Please put a real jockey on
> this horse.
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B

I\'m with Joe here.  This horse is not a miler.

[joemama]

Yep that Herd Theory is a different way of looking at things.  Thomas Kerry looks at things from a different perspective .   He is not number oriented.  I like anything that works.  Tough thing is finding something that works all the time or at least a lot of the time.  Finding that is key.

[P-Dub]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Pdub-- both are attempts by humans to analyze the
> characteristics of horses, both have claims made
> about their efficacy. I\'m not at all defensive
> about it, but if it works for one group it should
> work for all. You are deciding to put \"health\"
> into the equation-- a) why should it matter, b)
> who says they\'re all equally healthy, etc.
> etc....
>
> We don\'t measure characteristics here. We measure
> performance.

JB,

My point was that his method works for horses of equal or comparable ability. Cheap claimers are wildly in and out of form

I would say that Thomas is comparable to a human psychologist.  Do you feel psychologists have no value??

Dosage is a manufactured system that is mixed and matched.  Herd dynamics obviously isn\'t, and can\'t be qualified. To me that is the difference between those 2 and why I don\'t think you can compare them.

Anyways....this is a forum about numbers and patterns.  I\'ll leave it be. Just my 2 cents.

[mjellish]

I don\'t think a different jockey will make a difference with this one.  And we can agree to disagree.  But I\'ve seen him run enough now to say I\'m pretty sure he\'s a miler who may get up to 1 1/8 if everything breaks right for him.  But I don\'t see him getting a 1 1/2 against a quality field no matter what.  Guess that puts me in the minority here, but so be it.  His connections think he can get 1 1/2 and have already announced they plan to run him 3 weeks from now.  So if he makes the race (which I put at 50/50 at best) maybe we\'ll get to see.

[Toga]

I agree on your stance with SI in the Belmont, it will be tough to consider him going 1 1/2. I knew when they were loading him for the Preak that I might as well toss my tickets out... washed out, nearly flipped over in the gate, and then a fourth place stalking wide trip. I didn\'t really LOVE his race spacing coming in to the race (especially stretching out to 1 3/16 and reacting in the wood to the big previous effort) but thought he was talented enough to place a bet and thought maybe he had enough time to recoup.

As far as my stance moving forward in the Belmont? This is a tough year for me... do to the fact I have been chasing that lifetime score, that so many of us desire from the triple crown run, for about 16 years now. I nearly had it in this year\'s Derby, if Danza traded places with chrome I would have walked with a 1/4 Mil, if Danza finished second I would have had a nice five figure score. It took me a week to shake it off and when I regrouped for the Preak I tried to convince myself to take another shot against Chrome. I made some bets tossing out CC in hopes of something usual happening, that maybe I could redeem myself. But in reality, the high cruising speed types usually come back to win the second leg going away, it\'s the closers that struggle there. That is part of why I took a shot with SI. Moving on to the belmont, I would love to here some strategies to bet against CC (at this point I am committed to play against, can\'t switch now). I am having trouble because I think it is going to take a distance specialist who is fully cranked to beat him and I think they will be all in to do it. The problem is, the horses who have shot do not figure to be a $75 horse like birdstone or Dtara. I don\'t see chrome running out of it so the verticals will be cheap and I am a historically bad horizontal player. Is there any hope to throw one last haymaker or should I just sit out and be a fan? Thanks, I appreciate all the great information from this site.