Chrome Can

[Michael D.]

Toga Wrote:
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> I agree on your stance with SI in the Belmont, it
> will be tough to consider him going 1 1/2. I knew
> when they were loading him for the Preak that I
> might as well toss my tickets out... washed out,
> nearly flipped over in the gate, and then a fourth
> place stalking wide trip. I didn\'t really LOVE his
> race spacing coming in to the race (especially
> stretching out to 1 3/16 and reacting in the wood
> to the big previous effort) but thought he was
> talented enough to place a bet and thought maybe
> he had enough time to recoup.


Nail on the freakin head. I was with you.



> As far as my stance moving forward in the Belmont?
> This is a tough year for me... do to the fact I have
> been chasing that lifetime score, that so many of
> us desire from the triple crown run, for about 16
> years now. I nearly had it in this year\'s Derby,
> if Danza traded places with chrome I would have
> walked with a 1/4 Mil, if Danza finished second I
> would have had a nice five figure score. It took
> me a week to shake it off and when I regrouped for
> the Preak I tried to convince myself to take
> another shot against Chrome. I made some bets
> tossing out CC in hopes of something usual
> happening, that maybe I could redeem myself. But
> in reality, the high cruising speed types usually
> come back to win the second leg going away, it\'s
> the closers that struggle there. That is part of
> why I took a shot with SI. Moving on to the
> belmont, I would love to here some strategies to
> bet against CC (at this point I am committed to
> play against, can\'t switch now). I am having
> trouble because I think it is going to take a
> distance specialist who is fully cranked to beat
> him and I think they will be all in to do it. The
> problem is, the horses who have shot do not figure
> to be a $75 horse like birdstone or Dtara. I don\'t
> see chrome running out of it so the verticals will
> be cheap and I am a historically bad horizontal
> player. Is there any hope to throw one last
> haymaker or should I just sit out and be a fan?
> Thanks, I appreciate all the great information
> from this site.


One last haymaker is warranted. Let\'s see what the field looks like.

[mjellish]

I hear you.  I\'ve been so close on a few of these as well over the past few years.

To me, the thing to remember is that 3 races at three different distances at three different tracks in the space of five weeks is going to take its toll.  It has to.  Not to mention the prep races you have to run in to qualify.  The points system means they almost have to race more now than in the past.  No more winning the Delta Jackpot at 2 and having enough graded stakes earnings to get in.  

I dont think you need a $75 horse to make a score in Belmont.  If you play against Chrome and he runs out of EX, TRI or SUPER you will get paid.  And if everyone who says they are coming shows up it should be a decent size field with quality to it.  So i don\'t think Chrome could back up much or at all and win.  He\'s going to have to bring his A race, again. Smarty couldn\'t do it.  Big Brown couldn\'t do it.  Silver Charm couldn\'t do it.  Real Quiet.  Funny Cide.  I\'ll Have Another.  War Emblem.  Not to mention Spectacular Bid, and he was pretty special.

[miff]

So far:

Chrome

Comm Curve

Samratt

Social Inclusion

Wicked Strong

Danza

Ride On Curlin

Kid Cruz

Tonalist

Intense Holiday

Commissioner

[TGJB]

Bot, is that not the usual Belmont leftovers. VERY strong potential field. Now all we need is Untap. How cool would that be.

I\'m trying to figure out who D\'Tara is this time...

[big18741]

Plenty of new top Belmont winners the last six or seven years.

Covello\'s crush is certainly bred for it.

[TGJB]

I think Covello owes me a dinner because of that horse, if he likes him in the Belmont I\'ll give him a chance to get it back if he is top 3.

[smalltimer]

I think in the last 10 years the only Preakness winner to win the Belmont was Alex.
8 of the last 10 years the winner didn\'t even run in the Preakness.
The Belmont winners have come from the Tesio, Barbaro, Dwyer.
Seems the best results have come from horses who ran out in the Derby, skipped the Preakness and ran back in the Derby.  
There are other strong indicators, but I haven\'t compiled them yet.
One thing almost for sure.. Most of the time it hasn\'t been won by a horse with real good numbers.  Several of them ran mostly 4\'s, some ran a top of only 3, and a couple ran 2\'s as tops. (Rags and Summer Bird the exceptions).
The early entrants in the Belmont look interesting.  At the risk of being laughed at, I\'ll probably include that plow horse from yesterday, Kid Cruz in the mix, although I hesitate cause the majority of winners have been running 5th or better during the race.
At this point, everything is just a guess, just throwing this out there.

[Acesover]

the owners sure sound sane, not sure the partner would attend Belmont


Coburn said he's not sure Perry will be at the Belmont, but he said: "I know a lot of people who can throw a good loop, and we'll drag his butt to Belmont if he doesn't want to show up on his own. He needs to be because he's missing out on a lot of fun. I can guarantee nothing, but I'll talk to him."

[Silver Charm]

It should be a tough field. You are talking immortality here if he wins. The list of horses who couldn\'t get it done over the last 100 years is nearly as imposing as the ones who actually did. Nothing like this commands a Walkover no matter how passionate his Fan Base is.

I said last week this will be a good betting race. The only way Chrome can win is because he is more tactical. Not because he is that much faster. His heart, resolve and consistency has been tested. We will find out about the others.....20 more days to go!!

[P-Dub]

Silver Charm Wrote:
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> I said last week this will be a good betting race.
> The only way Chrome can win is because he is more
> tactical. Not because he is that much faster. His
> heart, resolve and consistency has been tested. We
> will find out about the others.....20 more days to
> go!!


Sometimes tactical speed is just as important in a racehorse as the almighty speed figure.

People still swear Easy Goer was faster than Sunday Silence. All I know is that he lost 3 out of 4 times to the horse with better tactical speed, and it took a home track advantage to win the Belmont.

This horse will never get his proper respect. Every race we hear how people are gonna make a score against him. We read ridiculous notions about dirt and other genius analysis. He got lucky. Not fast, just getting perfect trips. Doesn\'t matter that his tractability gets him those \"perfect\" trips, that he has earned those trips with his tactical speed. He\'s just fortunate everyone else gets into trouble but him.

Good luck beating him.  Not only does he have to lose, you have to find the right horses to bet.

Its really killing a lot of people that a horse from California, a Cal bred at that, is one race away from the Triple Crown. I hope a lot of you have deep pockets, lots of money has been burned chasing your dream.

[sekrah]

Ahh yes.  Here comes the West Coast \"chip on my shoulder\" rant from P-Dub.

P-Dub, Quite frankly nobody gives a shit where Chrome is from and if you think so you are delusional.  I\'ll bet against Derby winners in the Preakness, and horses going for the Triple Crown in the Belmont EVERYTIME.  I don\'t give a f- where they are from.  Why?  Because they are underlays.

If he wins he wins, Wonderful. Doesn\'t change the fact that he\'s been an underlay in every Triple Crown race so far and will be so in the Belmont as well.  

Save this \"No Respect\" nonsense for your Chrome Facebook fanboy page.  We\'re here to make money.  If an underlay gets us, oh well. It\'s happened before and it\'ll happen again.  Part of the game.

[sekrah]

Michael D. Wrote:
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>
> One last haymaker is warranted. Let\'s see what the
> field looks like.


What Michael?  You need to start showing California-breds respect.  Keep your wallet in your backpocket and bow down.


/sarc

[jerry]

That\'s where he should have been spotted. 3 week turn around not ideal.

[P-Dub]

sekrah Wrote:
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> P-Dub, Quite frankly nobody gives a @#$%& where
> Chrome is from and if you think so you are
> delusional.

Then why was it mentioned on this board??

Who\'s delusional now, Mr self appointed genius??

[jerry]

Don\'t know what a jock change would do. SI made a run at the winner and hung. He reminds me of Verrazano.