More to worry about

[TheBull]

If I remember that race correctly, was it not Wise Dan who attempted to close up that dead rail to no avail?

[smalltimer]

That\'s probably the best post you\'ve written.  
You\'re much better when you\'re not sarcastic.   lol

[toppled]

My biggest problem with Hoppertunity is I don\'t think he classes up with the field.  Number-wise his top is good enough to throw him in with the other contenders, but I\'ve got a problem seeing him as a Derby winner.  

From bottom up, his 1st race stablemate Bayern beats him soundly, but his supporters can point to his gain in the stretch. The horses in that race have proven to be nothing special. The next race he breaks his maiden over a field that again is nothing special.  Then he goes to Louisiana where he loses by 7 lengths to Intense Holiday and by a length and a half to Vicar\'s in Trouble. He does beat Commanding Curve by 1.25 lengths, but that one has been off almost 3 months. Now he goes to Arkansas where I believe is the worst group of 3 YOs prepping for the Derby, gets his decent speed figure while showing gameness in a roughly run race beating Tapiture and Ride On Curlin, who then go on to get their behinds whipped by Danza, the new face in town who was eligible for a NW2. Tapiture, the horse he beat by 1/2 length in the Rebel runs a mediocre 4thin the Ark. Derby.  Next it\'s back home to So Cal, where he runs far behind California Chrome in an agreed, not all out effort.  He does beat Candy Boy who has yet to attain a sheet # that makes him competitive in the Derby.  

So outside of the tomato can he beat in his maiden & Rebel wins, he hasn\'t finished ahead of anyone of consequence.  Meanwhile, he\'s been beaten by California Chrome, Intense Holiday & Vicar\'s in Trouble, the 1st 2 soundly.

If you\'re right I\'ll tip my hat to you and gladly see you collect your 10/1 (which from what I\'ve seen of him should be 20/1, but Baffert/Smith will depress your odds), which I will be contributing to with my win bets on 2 other horses-one of which you can poke more holes in than I\'ve just done with Hoppy.

[eljayar52]

Thanks for the baptism guys. I appreciate it. I might chime in later.

[smalltimer]

#1 welcome to the JB/miff/jimbo66/etal forum.  Only one we\'re missing is Ken Sherman.

#2 Prepare to get your ears boxed on occasion.

#3 NEVER, EVER say that Zenyatta was better than Rachel Alexandra.

#5 Prepare to have Mike Smith impaled those half dozen times a year he gives a horse a wide trip.   LOL

#4 Prepare to be dazzled by the absolute brilliance of the majority of the players in this forum.  That\'s a fact.

#5 Stick around for the Derby insights by mjellish, Michael D. and a handful of really great TGenerates.

[toppled]

My hit rate on the Derby is about 1 in 4, so there\'s a 75% chance I\'m going to be all wet myself by the time they cross the finish line.  I\'ve only hit the Derby 2 straight years once & I\'ve been playing over 40 years and I hit last year, so you can take anything I say on this year\'s Derby with a grain of salt.

[big18741]

Ten furlongs shouldn\'t hurt him and it might help.You can\'t say that about more than a handful of horses in this Derby.

He\'s trained well in Kentucky and while I don\'t see him running a new top I think he has a chance to get back close to his Rebel.How that\'ll stack up in here depends on his draw/trip.

Good Luck

[jimbo66]

Wise Dan did lose at CD on a disgusting \"dead speed\" track, but it wasn\'t in the BC Classic.  It was in June, on the Stephen Foster card.  I am pretty sure it was Ron the Greek that beat him.

[louisvilleguy1111]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Wise Dan did lose at CD on a disgusting \"dead
> speed\" track, but it wasn\'t in the BC Classic.  It
> was in June, on the Stephen Foster card.  I am
> pretty sure it was Ron the Greek that beat him.


Good memory, it was Ron the Greek coming from dead last to nail him.

[TheBull]

I\'m referring to the BC sprint that Big Drama won.....pretty sure he was on that dead rail. Someone correct me if that\'s inaccurate

[jimbo66]

Pretty sure  Wise dan wasn\'t in the race, wouldn\'t stake my life on it. , but would bet s lot on it...

[jimbo66]

I would have lost that bet. Just watched the replay.  He was in the race.  On the rail

[TheBull]

Darn, I was getting ready to make the bet Jimbo; at least then, I could have said I cashed at least once this week. Think he was like 6th or 7th with Bejerano up. Good luck this weekend!

[Boscar Obarra]

Not sure I\'d call it disgusting. Crazy tracks are what makes the game interesting. Today and the next time.

[jimbo66]

Crazy tracks make my wife and mother in law as effective as handicapping as I am

People that are spending hours analyzing and paying top dollar for data, don\'t want bullshit aberrational tracks.  

I could buy lottery tickets if I wanted pure random