More to worry about

[sekrah]

Yep, Rail is deader than a door nail..

[jimbo66]

Phil,

You are 100% right.  Another disgusting job by the inept crew at CD.  Wide sweeping moves are fine, near the inside is death.  Running on the lead is death.  

How do these guys have jobs.

There aren\'t enough variables in this game?

[Silver Charm]

Maybe that is why Asmussen was so happy drawing the 13 hole in the Oaks.

[TreadHead]

I think what is even more incredible is, if you look at the flags at CD today they are blowing stiff right to left, a sprinter\'s tailwind in the backstretch.  Normally, this would be detrimental to closers facing a fierce headwind on the way home, but the bias is apparently so bad that not even a 30mph wind can stop them.

EDIT - Know its already been stated, but this is really worrisome in trying to think thru the workouts.  What if good horses were looking bad due to the track?

[eljayar52]

First of all I\'m a newbie and am humbled to participate in this forum. As to todays perceived bias \"More to Worry About\"- the Weather Channel has not another drop of rain forecast after this evening through Saturday so however inept the CD crew is perceived here the track should be fast(really fast) and fair. Hoppertunity. Thanks for not mentioning him. I wouldn\'t want my 10/1 hammered down to 6/1 LOL. But..I think this horse has some serious upside. When needing to score the Derby points in the Rebel he showed some real character during that bumping match with Tapiture in the stretch. The kind of seasoning a horse will need in the Derby. As to the second in the SA. Mike Smith never tapped him and BB said rather coyly \"I knew we weren\'t going to beat CC\".Hmmm.. The tenet about 2yo\'s in the Derby may be disproved this year. Apology for being so long-winded but I love the intellectual challenge of this game.

[TGJB]

I feel an Op-Ed in TDN coming on, taking the hide off CD. Gonna wait until I see tomorrow\'s results first.

Bet that last one in part because you could figure out she\'d be widest turning for home. Handicapping through the looking glass.

[jimbo66]

Eljayar52,

Unfortunately, rain isn\'t the problem at CD, at least not the only problem.

As for \"perceived\" in front of the word bias today, if you are watching the races, you will know it is more than perceived.  Jockeys are seeing it also.  They want 51 to a half and the front runners are setting the pace in the 5th path in some of the races.  Silly and it ruins much of the \"intellectual challenge\" you refer to, as it becomes a crapshoot.  (well, worse of a crap shoot than it already often is).

This inept crew, which replaced the inept crew that got fired following the back to back BC dead rail fiascos, apparently hasn\'t learned much from history.  

They have a couple days to get it right, but not sure they will.

[jimbo66]

I hear you.  Did the same thing with the winner last race, but betting horses you would normally never bet because they are gonna be off the rail or grinding on a dead speed track is just awful.

The inverse is no good either. (tossing horses you like because of the bias) I still hate myself for getting off Eibar Coa on a horse I loved in the BC Sprint at CD, because speed and the inside were so bad.  Coa got his horse out of the gate and set the pace from the 5 path.  A brilliant ride, but very hard to count on.  (forgetting the horse\'s name, but believe he set the pace in Rachel\'s Preakness win)  Drama something I think.

[TreadHead]

Yep, Big Drama, remember it well.  Was able to clear the field and move way off.  Super smart.

[TheBull]

Big Drama?

[eljayar52]

Your thoughts on Hoppertunity?

[Tavasco]

Welcome newbie!

Regards humility, you\'ll probably get over it.

Regards the weather, what do you think the chances are their # is right?

As for the ground crew, if the owners are furious with CDI management, the players hate the SOB\'s, Louisvilleguy presumably, wouldn\'t throw a one of them a rope if .... What would the employees (who are most effected) think or do about management.

As for Hopp-or-tunity, bad luck, I think his best number came on a wet track. But, good luck with derby. Hmm, A Baffert horse with an upside, curious concept?

[TGJB]

Yeah, exactly. Using Big Drama as an example, first you have to identify the dead rail, then you have to hope the connections do, then you have to hope they can do something about it (which in that case looked impossible). Cost me money too.

[jimbo66]

Big drama.

Thanks guys.

Get that horse\'s name confused with my teenage daughter....

[jimbo66]

As for Hoppertunity, I think this track would help him.  I believe the horse is a grinder, very long winded and IMO a much better fit in the Belmont.  But if we get a deadish track then grinders with stamina become very appealing.  (See a slug like Drosselmeyer winning the BC Classic on a dead track)

If we get a fast track, with no bias, Hoppertunity doesn\'t seem to have either the agility to get good position in a big field or a burst of speed to seize command on the turn.  A \"tweener\" for me.  

But certainly is coming into the race right.  A good win at FG and a solid prep kind of run at SA.

That said, he was light years behind Chrome.  

10-1 or better seems fair, if u like him