A couple of early thoughts about Derby

[mjellish]

Going to have limited internet access for the next week or so, but I thought I would toss a few early thoughts up on the board for discussion.

As I\'ve said before, I think getting a 1 1/4 and getting 1 1/8 are two different things.  The \"Miler\" type colts can sometimes stretch their speed to 1 1/8 under the right conditions and look really good doing it, but it\'s just not as likely at a 1 1/4.  So IMO it's best to keep that in mind while handicapping the race.  Sure, there are always colts who outrun their breeding and the Churchill strip could be biased and...  But this is a game of percentages and I feel you have to structure your bet accordingly.  Who do you think actually moves up at the distance?

I also think that watching or knowing how these colts train over the Churchill strip the week or so before the race is one of the best ways to help separate the final contenders from the pretenders.  Having a clocker on site at Churchill used to be a huge edge for me, but we are living in the new information age.  Mike Welsch\'s daily reports from Churchill are actually pretty good.  If you can\'t be there or don\'t know someone who is, I would watch those daily videos.  And remember, it's not just how they work, its how they come out of it that also really matters.  

With that in mind, here's a few thoughts about the top couple of choices.

California Chrome really isn\'t bred to be a classic distance horse, but on the other hand he hasn\'t really done anything to make me feel like the Derby distance is definitely out of the question.  I don't think you are going to hear many people say they think the 1 ¼ will move him up though.  It\'s been a while since we had a Derby favorite that is as heavily raced as him.  Nice colt has really come into his own and blossomed this winter and early spring.  Can rate or go to the lead, responds well to his rider\'s hands, can throw in a devastating sustained burst at the top of the lane that has been a winning move during his past few races.  I suppose he\'s a deserving favorite.  On the negative, he\'s never ran a race outside of California and he\'s going to have to ship halfway across the country for this one.  Also, from watching his races, I don\'t think he likes to be behind horses.  He will rate outside, OFF horses, but he doesn\'t seem to want to take dirt or sit behind them.  That usually means wide trip, and in a 20 horse field with lots of early speed that could mean he runs a big figure and still loses. He's also not the most consistent out of the gate.  The last time Chrome lost he broke from the 1 post, hopped at the start and never seemed to get comfortable trying to come from behind horses.  So when he drew inside for the San Felipe his connections took no chances and got on him right out of the gate.  I really wish we were going to be able to see this one train for at least a full week and with a serious work over the Churchill strip.  But we won't.

I think Wicked Strong is the likely 2nd betting choice and also deservedly so.  This colt showed some talent at 2 and was training up a storm, and I mean a storm as if he might be something really special, leading up to his 3 year old debut.  But everything went wrong in the Holy Bull as he got roughed up pretty bad and had to drop out of the race.  It\'s a total toss on his sheet IMO.  He came back a month later and caught an extremely glib and speed biased track on Fountain of Youth Day at Gulfstream Park.  I think he ran very well after breaking from a tough outside post and managed to pass a few horses down the stretch at a distance that is probably not as far as he wants to go and a track that really didn\'t suit his style.  You won\'t find a colt in this race that is better bred for the 1 1/4 than this one.  In the Wood he showed a lot of professionalism tucking in behind horses and saving ground through the 1st turn, then switched out and went pretty wide on the 2nd turn but sustained that run down the stretch through a pretty fast final 3/16ths to win going away once he finally leveled out.  I\'m told he also worked very well the other day and showed more early speed than he usually does in the AM.  For a stretch runner, that can often be a positive sign of pending improvement and a horse that is peaking.  On the negative, I didn\'t like how he was a little green coming down the stretch in the Wood, and I would rather have seen a stronger rally to overcome that glib track on FOY day to indicate he is something special.  As a confirmed stretch runner he\'s also going to need a pace to run at, which he probably will get, and a fairly clear path to run through if he\'s going to win.  It will be very interesting to see how he trains and gets over the Churchill strip.  It\'s still too early, but if someone put a gun to my head right now and asked who is your Derby key, he would be it for me.

Hoppertunity ran well in the Rebel and is reasonably bred for the distance.  Bob Baffert, of course, also has a lot of Derby experience and would seem to know how to get them ready to peak on the first Saturday in May.  After his nice score in the Rebel this one was deliberately geared down for the SA Derby.  That's not to say he was held back, he just wasn't fully cranked as the connections knew they had enough points to get in the Derby already and didn't need to fire another top effort.  I'm not sure what that is going to do to his sheet.  But how this one trains and acts leading up to the race will probably be the key for me whether I use him or not.

Vicar's In Trouble is a tiny colt with some talent that wired the LA Derby after he got loose on a fairly easy lead. He had no chance in the Risen Star breaking from the 13 post and getting a tough a trip all the way around.  Other than that he really hasn't done anything wrong, but I think he's more of sprinter/miler type and would really need to show me something at Churchhill in the AM.  

Dance with Fate was pointed towards the Blue Grass and won it.  Now connections take a shot in Louisville.  Can't say I blame them, but I think his future is on the Grass or Poly.

Danza came out of nowhere to win the Ark Derby at 41-1 for Pletcher.  People knocking his chances in the Derby due to suspect breeding, but I'm not so sure I agree with that as he has some stamina influences in his pedigree.  Came home a fast final 1/8th in the Ark Derby as well.  But it's Pletcher in Louisville.  So let's see how he looks and acts leading up to the race.  If he starts to fall apart or show signs of tailing off, well...

Ditto on Intense Holiday.

Samraat is tough, gritty, always fires, and IMO will really be up against it at 1 ¼ in Louisville.  I feel he will need to catch a biased track to win.  Minor player.

Ride on Curlin is very well bred for the distance and get's Calvin, which will hurt his price.  He didn't run poorly in the Ark Derby and the 1 ¼ probably moves him up.  Will have to see how he seems to act coming up to the race.

I look forward to seeing the early sheets and to the discussion over the next two weeks.

[Silver Charm]

California Chrome is beginning to come across as Zenyatta 2.0 with the West Coast Fans. They LOVE this horse. He not only came from there but has deep roots at the core of their circuit and training facilities. For that reason alone he may get a little overbet. And still win!!!

[richiebee]

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

 
> Ride on Curlin is very well bred for the distance
> and get's Calvin, which will hurt his price.  He
> didn't run poorly in the Ark Derby and the 1 ¼
> probably moves him up.  Will have to see how he
> seems to act coming up to the race.
>
ROC is rather enigmatic. Bred for the distance and ran well in the OP preps, but his 2 lifetime wins were at 5-1/2 and 6f. Has there been a recent Derby winner without winning experience past one mile?

[jbelfior]

Not that he\'s one of my top choices, but interesting that Candy Boy went from everyone\'s contender list to no one\'s list in one race. Has a running style that will look much better on a non-California track.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[covelj70]

Richie,

Depends on your definition of \"recent\" but 3 horses have \"recently\" won the derby without ever having won a two turn race prior to the derby

Sea Hero
silver charm
Funny Cide

I was actually surprised that 3 have done this relatively recently.

Ride on Curlin and Arod both trying to do that this year

[richiebee]

Jim:

Thanks for this, but my query concerned horses that had not won past one mile.

Funny Cide won the Sleepy Hollow at a flat mile at Belmont.

Looking forward to plenty of Covel commentary as we are now less than 2 weeks
out.

[covelj70]

Yes sir, Funny Cide and Sea Hero both won mile races at Belmont. One turn miles but miles nonetheless

Silver Charm hadn\'t won beyond 7f before the Derby but ran two very big seconds with big figures in the San Felipe and SA Derby

Ride on Curlin and ARod don\'t have any such races on their résumé

I look forward to the banter over the next two weeks as well but I have to tell you, I haven\'t ever been this uninspired by the depth of the Derby field

I know we all keep talking here about how closely bunched the field is TG fig wise but first of all, a few of the \"fast\" ones dropped out this week, second, I don\'t think several of the other \"fast\" ones have any shot of running their top at 1 1/4 and third, tightly grouped figure horses just means they are all mediocore. There are years where I wouldn\'t consider betting a horse with a \"3\" top. This year, ride on Curlin seems like one of the only bettable horses in the race to me and I assuming he paired his top in his last

To this point, weak crop. Hopefully, will change down the road

Preakness field likely to be alot deeper than Derby assuming bayern, social inclusion, kid Cruz and dynamic strike all go right to the Preakness.

...and then just wait till the Belmont when Commissoner gets to do his thing (hahahahah)

My top 3 right now are

Wicked Strong
Ride on Curlin
Hopportunity

Cali Chrome could certainly win but I honestly don\'t think he\'s anymore likely than the ones above and we will get at least 3x the price on them.  

Game on Dude reminded us again last night that it doesn\'t matter how good you look on a track that suits your style if you are running on a track that doesn\'t

I really wish Cali Chrome was already at CD for alot of reasons.

[toppled]

Candy Boy\'s sheet #s are slower than all of the major contenders (I can\'t see his SA Derby # being anything other than more of the same 5 territory with the December top the only cause for the most ardent supporters to think he can get in winning # territory and that\'s only if he progresses which I don\'t think his pattern suggests he has so far this year.).  He\'ll have to jump up 2-3 points just to hit the board. So unless the better away from California theory proves right and he becomes a new horse in Louisville, he looks like an also-ran.

[mbeychok]

I also think that Sadler away from Cali is not a positive angle but someone else may have real numbers on this - if so another strike on Candy Boy.

[pizzalove]

I have to admit with Cairo Prince gone I am really heavily looking at Candy Boy.  I wonder if they are saying that he ran 5\'s for the Cash call futurity and for the Robert Lewis?  Does anyone know.  I guess I can always wait until I buy the derby package.  There are a couple of really good things about this horse:

1. After his December 2 yr old win.  He had 8 weeks off and then won the Lewis rather handily.  He was then given another 8 weeks off before the Santa Anita in a race where he was wide all the way and may have a figure better or close to Hoppertunity who was much more prepared for a good effort.  With this type of prep u would have to assume he is well rested and far more primed for the derby than his previoous two races.

2. he is a big striking looking horse whose size and breeding and recent races would indicate he should relish the added distance.  I also dont think any bumping will effect him much.

3. Sadler is solid.  Love stevens too.

Also I want to add one other thing about Wicked strong.  I agree he is a top contender but I worry that he is likely to bounce.  Of all of the preps run over the past month i dont think any horse gave as much or was as all out as WS.  His weaving in the stretch would indicate the race took alot out of him and he may be hard pressed to repeat that effort.  By eye test only He may be the horse most likely to bounce.

[TreadHead]

I would be playing Commanding Curve long before Candy Boy, has similar if not slightly better dirt figs and better bred for distance.  Looks very similar to Giacomo, MTB, Golden Soul etc, with similar running style and excuse, racing on speed favoring strips all winter as a closer and ready to explode on Derby Day.

I went back a few years in the archives and of those very few horses that have moved forward 2 or more points on Derby Day (edit- clarified, set 2pt new tops at least), they almost overwhelming fit the category of off-the-pace runners stuck on tracks they had no hope of performing on prior to the Derby.  Had to go back to Hard Spun to find a speed horse that ran a big new top in the Derby, and even his was off a poly race at TP, which we all know can be a powerful angle anyway going poly to dirt.

I realize Commanding Curve is not in the field yet, but it would be highly unusual for something to not happen to someone in the top 20 between now and then, be it an injury or connections deciding it would be bad for the horse, so he is practically a lock to make the race.  Not sure he can win, but well within possibility of doing a GoldenSoul-like trifecta effort.

[jimbo66]

Jim

Don\'t believe u will get 3x the price of California chrome on either hoppertunity or wicked strong.  Both smell like wise guy horses and as micheal d posted esrlier they are very likely the 2nd and 3rd choices.  

3-1 California chrome.  6 or 7 to 1 on the other two.  

No bargains especially when u are betting them both \"on the come\".  Neither one is close to as good as California chrome right now.  Don\'t care what the figs say.  

Doesn\'t mean they can\'t improve and CC doesn\'t run his best race at 1 1/4 at CD.  But they are not starting as equals despite what the TG figs say.

I would need double digits on either one of them and not likely to get it

Derby very uninspiring right now IMO.  Lots of the \"interesting\" options not available.  Horses like Cairo primce, constitution and Bayern.  Left with very common 2nd and 3rd choices and a very solid favorite who has to carry his race to a sometimes quirky surface.

[TGJB]

The race gets a lot more interesting if you DO care what the figures say.

Derby probable package should be up now.

I won\'t be done with Ill Derby day for a couple of days, but there\'s a good chance it\'s a new top for MH. You dodged a bullet.

[covelj70]

Tread,

Very reasonable stab there and good archive work

Only thing I will say is that I wouldn\'t expect any kind of value on commanding curve

I am good friends with the West Point folks that own him. They got me started in the game. They are very good horse people and even better human beings. A phenomenal group.

They have an amazing network of owners and partners that number into the thousands.

They are the only group I know that can move the market in a pool on the size of Derby Day. For whatever reason, all of the partners, even the partners that don\'t own the WPT horse running on any given day will literally each bet into the thousands of dollars on a horse that seemingly has no shot, just because they know the connections.

I think part of the issue is that there is some sense of regret/resentment that you might own 10 horses with the group but you didn\'t opt into that one for whatever reason and so the non commanding curve partners involved with WPT bet enough money to \"ease their pain\" should the horse win a given big race and if you lose the bet, well, you figure you saved the 50k or whatever you would have paid for a share in the horse.

I know this sounds ridiculous but look at the prices their horses go off at, especially at the Saratoga meet. Usually about half of where they should go off.

He\'s a bit of a wise guy horse to begin with because Dallas ran second with a similar type horse last hear and everyone in Kentucky loves him ( for good reason, hes an awesome guy), then factor in that Haskin won\'t stop talking about the horse (that usually doesn\'t end well)  and then add the WPT gang,
I wouldn\'t expect more than 30 to 1 on this guy when his true odds are probably closer to 50 to 1.

[smalltimer]

did a quick study on \'14, \'13, \'12 with Sadler.
Away from California he is 1 win in 22 starts with the win coming at Turf Paradise.