A couple of early thoughts about Derby

[covelj70]

What if we care what the figures say for the horses that can run their figure at the distance?

MJ forgot more about handicapping than I\'ll ever know and he also thinks that there is a difference between 1 1/8 and 1 1/4.

Guy made his living doing this. That\'s good enough for me!

[ajkreider]

I think Commanding Curve will definitely interesting if he gets in, but I plan on mixing Candy Boy in the super as well.

Hopportunity looks like a wise guy horse, and so won\'t provide good value.  His best number is on a wet track.  Candy Boy looked like the layoff hurt him, as it did Cairo Prince, and he got the wider SA trip. I expect a move forward off that effort, and that should put him right with Hopportunity - at a much better price.

Leaving aside the win, there are lots of 20/1-ish horses that can fill out the super.  It will pay big time this year.

[louisvilleguy1111]

I fully agree Covelj70, I know a couple of owners involved with WPT and they bet big time money on all horses whether they have a percent in the horse or not. Dallas\'s horse ran huge last year but lighting doesn\'t strike in the same place twice. Or does it??? Lol

[justwin]

wicked strong reminds me of orb. exploded in his sixth start, distance not an issue, runs his best from off the pace. If he can repeat his wood it will take a huge effort from cali chrome to win. I don\'t get all the negativity on cali chrome, he\'s been the best 3yo for a while now. i think cali chrome\'s #\'s would have been better (maybe neg territory) if he was pushed in any of his races through the stretch. that being said some horses fold in that situation, with the distance not really a plus i can see him running his 1 again. i think wicked will run in neg territory in the kyd as the distance will help him.

i was going to play wicked in vegas before his 3yo start after his huge remsen run but i decided to save the money I usually waste on it. i believe he was 35 or 45-1. i was glad after his 2 bad runs figured I saved my money. turns out i wish i had that ticket now. can\'t see much else in this derby except possibly intense holiday to win. many others possible underneath. i guess at the price genl arod may be worth a saver.

[TreadHead]

Thx Jim, that is important insight.  When you say they are killing the odds, is it in all the pools, all the exotics?  Would there be any value in place/show vs exacta/tri/super or do they kill it all evenly?

[mbeychok]

I looked at the early Thorograph sheets. A lot of question marks in there, seemingly more than in many years. One question though that is easy to answer, at least for me - CC is not the fastest horse. And, there is no way I can see him running a top in the Derby, the ship, the breeding, the number of races so far. He might win but he will win without me for sure. (this declaration just made him the easy winner of course) Other question is if a certain horse can pair his top he looks like a very likely winner at a nice price.

My question for the board is what to make of Intense Holiday. I really like his races visually - as he is one of the few horses in the field to have an established running style of presser/closer - although in the LA DERBY the jock had him a bit close. But, he closed into the slow pace and then fell apart.

With his pattern, what do you guys expect?

One final thought, I think this year more than ever, I will pay extra close attention to how a horse works at CD and looks as compared to how they looked over the winter - where comparisons can be made. Very imp\'t to catch the improving horses in flesh and coat vs. those that have tipped over. Good reading and good luck to everyone.

PS. I do have a horse in the OAKS who I love at a price if she can get in.

[Old Mr. Boston]

Nice tease. You saving it for the next television season?

[Tavasco]

MBeychok,

regards - Intense Holiday

My thinking is I can not remember a horse who raced oddly (noteworthy aberrant, demonstrated irrational behavior), beat themselves, and then came back to jump up in their next.

I have played a number of them, using the excuse they were green or mis-ridden, poor return on investment. I\'ll side with Covello on this one something could be rotten in Denmark. Maybe the horse was just frightened by sound or bird? But I\'d want to know what happened?

Bottom Line we have enough doubt about the ones coming in off understandable trips. His current price is seductive! Harlan? Certainly not impossible and more than a couple will use him under in the verticals. IMO, The artificial surface winners with be ignored for less valid reasons like - the unpopularity of the surface and making comparisons is confusing. Both horses had something to like in their last finishes and that is what\'s key to me stretching out.

Good luck, you\'ll figure it out! After all, you are a world champion handicapper and video star! Use your edge.