Lucky Pulpit vs. Tapit

[covelj70]

It will be amusing watching everyone spend the next month bashing California Chrome\'s pedigree while talking about how well bred all of the Tapit\'s are

Tapit and Lucky Pulpit have the same sire themselves, Pulpit

Tapit dam sire is unbridled, CC is Cozenne

I certainly appreciate that the bottom side of many of these Tapits are much better than CC\'s bottom side and that the bottom side of a pedigree is critical to the stamina of a horse but the fact of the matter is that no Tapit has gotten 1 1/4 yet despite being bred to the best mares in the world and I just don\'t mean for the derby, I mean the older ones as well

Tapit is a brilliant sire and I wish I had 50 of them myself and of course I would generally take a Tapit over a Lucky Pulpit to get a distance of ground but as Jimbo said so well on the board earlier today, at some point, what a horse has actually done on the track trumps what the pedigrees say and since CC just blew a hole through the wind running 1 1/8 and since no Tapit has gotten the distance yet, it seems silly to me how people are already dinging the pedigree of CC vs the pedigree of the Tapits

I won\'t be betting CC on top in the Derby for alot of reasons but pedigree isn\'t one of them.

[TreadHead]

My pedigree bashing has absolutely zero to do with the sire\'s side.  Anyone doing any sort of pedigree study of derby winners will notice the stamina influence from the dam\'s side is of paramount importance and sire stamina has varied quite a bit.  The one thing that is consistent is the need for dam side stamina, of which CC has next to zero.

IMO, sire side discussion is a waste of time.  I\'m not trying to say that dam stamina is 100% of the story, but any sort of study would much more greatly value the dam side stamina influences than the sire side based on data I\'ve seen.

[touchgold]

having said that, any thoughts on chitu? AP Indy on female side. Not sure of the sunland derby figure but if its a 1 or so, could be interesting.

[covelj70]

Tread,


I explicitly said in my post that I understand the conventional wisdom is that the bottom side drives the stamina but many will rush to bet a sire in this race that hasn\'t proven he can get the distance despite the best bottom side pedigrees of any stallion in the game.

[big18741]

Some good pedigrees for ten furlongs running in the Arkansas Derby:

Bayern
Strong Mandate
Conquest Titan
Commissioner

Thinking we will have at least one maybe more picking up enough points to get in.

[Tavasco]

In that case (Dam Stamina Influence), looks like Baffert probably will have a third shooter at CD, namely, Bayern, if healthy. Yes, He does still need to perform.

Baffert has proven able to get them ready early. The colt has shown his speed. While dam, Alittlebitearly, did not race. Her dam, Aquilegia, did win the New York Handicap at 1+1/4.

Assuming Bayern wins @OP (a medium big assumption) then it looks like four of the top five US 3 y/o colts (3 BB\'s) will harken from the left coast. If I add Shared Belief then well .........

It is late and just letting off some steam!

What A fine weekend of racing - Congrats NYRA for a good Sat card, Keeneland is a treat (hoping Maker & Ramsey don\'t ruin it like last year).

For Now, Thoroughbred Racing is alive and well. How about that Golden Slipper 3.2 Million for 2 y/o\'s Aussie, Aussie, Aussie and fillies run 1-2-3!

[jimbo66]

Nice pedigrees but 1 maybe 2 of those horses has a shot to be a runner.

Strong mandate backing up in all of his races in the stretch this year.  Exactly how relevant is that pedigree?

Commissioner is a \"never was\", can\'t even call him a has been.  He is like a poor mans harpoon (and harpoon is awful).  He was crushed by midnight hawk and Chitu.  Neither is at the top of anybody\'s list.

Bayern could be any kind.  Very interested to see how he runs.

And conquest Titan could be a runner.  Although running down general a-rod late is looking less and less impressive with each race.

The short list of win contenders is pretty narrow for the big race.  

I think Bayern and Tapiture could be near the top if they run well.  

Good luck

[TreadHead]

Lucky Pulpit and Tapit may both be by Pulpit, but the similarities end there.  Doesn\'t matter what you look at, be it BRIS (Tapit AWD 7.4 to LPs 6.5F) or TG (Tapit 1.25 pts better at routes, LPs .75 worse at routes), it\'s very clear that the female influences brought into the Pulpit breeding of those offspring have had significantly different results.

Again, none of this isn\'t to say that CC or another Lucky Pulpit horse couldnt win a G1 at 10F, especially over a track like SA where the ground is not nearly as taxing and pedigree means far less, as speed carries with less effort.  But when we are talking about getting over taxing ground like CD, my opinion is that things are going to be very different and when you have such a weak female influence as CC brings to the table, this might be the time where the limitations start to show, over a more taxing course.

Let\'s not forget, for as impressive as CC has been, all his route wins have been at SA.  Again, we need only to go back to last year to see a horse like Goldencents that fooled everyone into thinking he was a legit 2 turn horse away from SA TWICE (he was pretty heavily bet again in the Preakness).  

I agree CC is a very nice horse and his wins have been visually impressive, but I\'m really not getting that way everyone has gone completely gaga over him given that there are several other horses with similar figures and he has done all his impressive work (save a 7F one-turn win at HOL) at the same track.  If he duplicates it somewhere else like CD, then I\'ll take notice, but I think people are star-struck and not taking everything fully into context that they should (his breeding, his wins all being at SA, his figures compared to his peers).

[richiebee]

Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

 
> It is late and just letting off some steam!

Ok, watch the last race at Kee on Saturday and imagine
you needed Long Jon/Rosie to complete horizontals.
 
> What A fine weekend of racing - Congrats NYRA for
> a good Sat card.

Oliver Zip ran an outstanding race Saturday. Looked left for dead at the
3/16th pole, surged back, have been told to watch the race again, that he
was being rated. Hope he gets a chance at 7f or mile on the grass.

 Keeneland is a treat (hoping
> Maker & Ramsey don\'t ruin it like last year).

The third amigo last spring was Joe L. Rosario, who was riding the Keeneland
courses quite well. Is he first call for Mike and Ken this spring?
 
> For Now, Thoroughbred Racing is alive and well.

Anyone capable of such a statement might well have been at Parkland Hospital
in 1963, reporting that JFK\'s status was \"day to day\".

OK, Derby preps. I think I have more respect for Saaamraaat now. His Wood run
was more impressive to me than his inner dirt match races with Uncle Sigh.
Not tossable if in the Derby gate.

Chitu. I am not going to let the pedigree discourage me here. To me he has
finished his last two races well enough to be not tossable if in the Derby
gate.

[ajkreider]

Can\'t a make up my mind about Chitu.  A cut above Midnight Hawk obviously, and finished the Lewis well.  Not so much in the Sunland - final 3/ths in .39 and change - but maybe it was the altitude.

(Edit:  Sorry, that\'s wasn\'t right.  It was .38 and change, which is respectable off a good pace)

[miff]

A horse that can\'t \"get the distance\" won\'t get it on any dirt surface. Many speed types at Santa or Gulf spit the bit late when distance challenged.The quirky CD surface is a question for all to answer, CD not nearly as speed biased as SA and Gulf, generally speaking and the derby pace has crushed more than a few of brilliant early speed.

CC has moved well over several different surfaces, he is long gaited and fluid, his main weapons.Dont know what speed/perf figs people use but CC is substantially consistently faster than all save an isolated fig here or there for a few.CC\'s pedigree is now irrelevant given the authority he has finished with in his recent races.His resiliency and physicality must be answered Derby day and shipping out of Cali on a plane not to be dismissed.CC was physically brilliant two back,good last Sat.

Solid favorite going in if he avoids any issues in the next 4 weeks.

[Wrongly]

Interesting that the board has broken out in a discussion about pedigree rather than figures.  Anyone care to discuss the fact that CC has run 4 big ones dating back to December and Saturday\'s effort might have been negative territory.  They should have trained him up to the derby and he would have been great value.

[covelj70]

hey buddy, awesome seeing you this weekend, your UCONN was awesome, congrats!

I think the discussion is moving to pedigree because the figures clearly make him the most consistent fast horse in the Derby

Others may wind up with isolated figured that are better and Jimbo\'s favorite derby horse (hahahah) has several figures that are faster including his last race where he went backwards (again) in the stretch but other than him and Samaarat, Cali Chrome is the only one that has consistently run figures that would make him part of the mix

I definitely don\'t believe in manufatured patterns for young horses.  You have to run them to have them ready for the Derby.  Going in off of 8 weeks would have been huge mistake.  Horse would be too fresh and rank and would be on the lead, potentially in crazy fractions.  With this race under his belt 4 weeks out, he has a better change of sitting just off the pace

I can\'t wait to see Jimbo\'s post when the General Arod sheet comes up on Derby week.  That is going to be a classic.  Arod would be my biggest futures payout so I would love to believe he has a chance but I\'m with Jimbo, I don\'t see it

[jimbo66]

Jim

If TGJB has general Arod with faster figures than California chrome, then I would love to have some of what he is smoking.

Better yet, I would like to go \"all in\" on that matchup bet.  He knows how to reach me.

Good luck

[TGJB]

We already have our head to head prop.