Lucky Pulpit vs. Tapit

[TreadHead]

Miff,

You are the first person I\'ve heard describe his gait as long.  Everything else I\'ve heard describes it as extremely average, but somehow he just keeps going, which is yet another reason I\'m suspicious of his ability to perform well over a more demanding surface.

And completely disagree with your assertion that horses that \"can\'t get the distance\" consistently will have the same results on different types of tracks.  There are any number of surface-aided route wins by horses at certain tracks like SA, GP, or MTH that never would have occurred at other places.

Sometimes surface matters, and sometimes it does not.  But to suggest that it never matters and numbers can just plug-and-play and be expected to be duplicated at other track every time is ridiculous.  P-Dub listed horses in a different response where surface did not matter (most of them before the synth was put in at SA, making it fairly irrelevant to this discussion, but whatever) and that\'s all well and good, but for every horse that is able to duplicate their efforts over a very different track type, you can probably find one that fails.

I\'m not suggesting there aren\'t horses that can run well on both types of tracks, there clearly are.  But, there are also any number of examples of horses that only ran well over glib surfaces and struggled at more demanding locations.  Game On Dude won races all over SoCal and did his best work at SA, yet he failed on 3 different attempts at CD.

CC has run races lower than 7 at 2 different tracks, and I really don\'t care about any of his races above 7.  One of those was a 7F sprint at HOL.  The rest were at Santa Anita.  

He has not done anything to yet demonstrate he would handle a demanding course like CD, but also get that he really hasn\'t done anything to prove he couldn\'t.  I\'m not saying he can\'t, only that I\'m going to be highly suspicious of his ability to do it for a number of reasons, and if that puts me in the minority, then so be it.

If he had run -3 and were 4 points better than everyone else, then I would get all this hype.  But given the info TGJB has shared with us about the SA Derby, there are what.. 6 or 7 other horses all within a point of him already at least?  Unless your sole method of handicapping is how many lengths a horse won by and you completely discrediting close finishes involving multiple horses, it seems like irrational exuberance.

[TGJB]

Tread-- No comment on CC. But there are an awful lot of assertions in there backed up by no facts, and in at least one case contradicted by them.

Dude ran a neg 2 at CD, and a neg 2 1/2 at CT. He also \"failed\" a couple of times in Breeders Cups at SA, running several points worse than those figures.

[miff]

Thread,

At 10f, no truly distance challenged horse is getting the distance, regardless of a speed bias, shorter distances,an intense speed bias can carry a pea heart farther.

Win, lose or draw, there are no horses as of today in CC\'s league as to consistency, accomplishment and pure racetrack speed, albeit at Santa only.

If he runs back to his Santa routes,someone has to run a substantial top to outrun him. CC does not have an ounce of \"methodology\" fast in his figs as many others do.

Good luck,

Mike

[covelj70]

Mike, I love the \"methodology fast\" term

JB and I have been debating this as well lately (as you can tell we have been \"debating\" quite a few topics)

you just gave me some new ammo in my argument

I really love that term

thanks

[TGJB]

An assertion is ammo in an argument?

There\'s a guy who used to post here who will get a good laugh out of that concept.

[Niall]

A few thoughts ... Winstar will run because as a breeding operation the upside is so much greater than the individual race. Coolmore/Tabor are a perfect example. Thats how I\'m looking at it anyway. On the horse for course angle though something has my attention ... If you look at all the big preps so far, who has taken their game on the road? Some havent even shipped! CC has to come east (hows Sherman outside of CA?), WS has 2 nice runs, both at Aqu. Hope Jimmy didnt learn how to ship from his dad. The Fla derby winner has only raced at GP, the La Drby winner has only won at Fairgrounds ... ah Tapiture you say ... Is this unique this year? Outfits that ship know how to do it and thus have an advantage.

[covelj70]

An assertion by Miff is most certainly ammo in an argument

If it was my assertion, not so much but Jimbo, Riche and Miff\'s assertions are definitively ammo on this board...lol

[miff]

Jim,

There is no argument that adjusting for weight and ground loss is a reasonable formula.On occasion, like today when JB asserted that Cairo Prince was not far off his top, I see it very differently.Cairo Prince was empty in the Fl Derby, ground loss or not.

Lord forbid, we all agree all of the time, we\'d have to find a new \"second\" life aside from the horses.

Mike

[TGJB]

\"Not far\" in this case 1 1/2 points, almost 3 lengths.

[TreadHead]

Not sure how this contradicts anything.  Was -2 his best figure?  He did his best work at SA, and yes there were a couple times he didn\'t run his best at SA.  Perhaps if CC ran 10+ races at SA he might not win every one of them either.  Yes, he ran \"well\" and won a couple races away from SA, but never better than he did at SA with the multiple -3s.

Unless CC is going to run his best race at CD, and assuming your figures are correct about the other horses, something a cut below CCs best, even if just a cut below, wont get the job done in the Derby.  And for all the reasons I\'ve already mentioned, my money is going to be on him not being at quite his best.  Not saying he\'s going to come in last place or even the bottom half of the field, but I don\'t see him winning.  I get that it\'s an unpopular opinion.

If we were talking about a horse like Big Brown that already has a several point advantage over the field, then an entirely different discussion.  The splitting hairs over reasons he might back up 1 or 2 points are of little use.  But given the cluster of figures of other contenders and where CC stacks up, it\'s time to start splitting hairs IMO, and I see several on CC I don\'t like compared to the others if we are talking about at 10F race at CD in a 20 horse field.

[TGJB]

The point is, Dude did good and bad work at SA, and good and bad work elsewhere. There is no indication which dirt track he ran on had anything to do with it. His \"average\" race at CT was better than anywhere else, if you want to do it that way.

[TreadHead]

And yet he still lost all 3 CD attempts and one of the 2 CT attempts (the one he ran the better figure in).

\"Good\" is not going to cut it in this Derby with so many horses so closely packed in terms of ability (not unlike the NCAA tourney this year).  I want the horse(s) that will be at their best on that 1st Sat in May, at 10F, at CD.  I dont see CC being that horse (and I\'m pretty sure you agree with me).

[TMW]

I find your shipping experience comment interesting. Art Sherman is a very experienced trainer having had over 12,000 starters and over 2,000 wins. However, his career average earnings per start statistic is only $3,060.

Most of his wins have been in Northern California. Recently, he has had a string of horses in Southern California where he now lives.

As for shipping experience, I don\'t really know. Obviously knowing when to ship and how to keep a horse at his/her peak ability when shipping is very important. An interesting factor.

[TGJB]

My point is not about CC, it\'s about Dude, and there is zero evidence he favors one dirt track over another. We use figures here-- winning and losing is in part a function of the competition.

[covelj70]

let\'s remember that CP was much slower than the others in that race to begin with

2 of them had 1\'s and 0s and he was a 3 so he was already alot slower and then went backward on top of that, even a \"small\" backward move put him way behind the fast ones

there\'s alot of consternation about whether CP will get in

I think the concern shouldn\'t be whether he can get in but the fact that he would need to improve a ton to be competitive if he does get in