The Kaintuckee Derby

[Jim]

Jerry you mean people dodn\'t know the difference when I say The Sheets?

Let it be known far and wide there is only one product called The Sheets and it is produced by Len Ragozin.

I didn\'t start this thread to compare the two products, but I won\'t shy away from it either. I started it to hear everyone\'s opinion and how they would rank their top 5.

Interesting how you never just want to talk about handicapping or opinions - it all has to come back to Ragozin for you. Have you told your therapist about this?

Life is good!!

[rail]

\"Something Bad Happened to a Clown
written by Warren Zevon 1995 Zevon Music BMI

Every touch is measured out
Every word is written down
Sunny skies are seldom seen
In the land of few and far between
And everybody wears a frown

Someone lost their squirting rose
There\'s his red nose on the ground
No one\'s seen his painted smile
He\'s been gone for quite a while
Something bad happened to a clown
Something bad happened to a clown

He used to honk his horn and everyone would laugh
He used to honk his horn
She doesn\'t think he\'s very funny anymore
Footprints in the sawdust leading to the edge of town
Something bad happened to a clown
Something bad happened to a clown

He used to honk his horn and everyone would laugh
He used to honk his horn
She doesn\'t think he\'s very funny anymore
Footprints in the sawdust leading to the edge of town
Something bad happened to a clown
Something bad happened to a clown\"

All right lil\' bitch. I\'ve had enough of your s**t on this board. If you cannot offer a viable opinion regarding handicapping, why don\'t you hit the road. You\'ve got my email address, BRING IT ON. You couldn\'t handicap your way out the can. Let\'s not bother these fine people here with your useless jabs. Be happy to meet you at Churchill on Kentucky Derby. Be real happy to put you in your place.

[Jim]

Tim,

Thanks for the reply. Please understand that my rankings don\'t say a thing about how I\'d play the race. I don\'t be the favorite very often - at least not to win - especially in the Derby. I have Harlan\'s Holiday on top only because I think he deserves to be there, not because I want to bet on him.

I agree that if the track is wet, I won\'t look twice at Request for Parole. Good point about all the horses that are eligible to bounce. I think the key is to pick which horses are least likely to bounce and evaluate their chances/value accordingly.

Finally, thanks for pointing out that we all have the same goal here - to win and become better handicappers. This thread has had a lot of activity and I\'m happy about that. I was beginning to wonder if Mr. Jerry Bitter didn\'t have all the aliases here. But, it looks like we can have a good discussion (with the occasional whining from Jerry, which is expected) after all.

[goofything]

JB, you talk about Ragz methodology maybe being somewhat flawed here and there. What would happen if you somehow convinced him that you were right and he should adjust his methodologies somehow.

Wouldn\'t that screw up at least 4 years worth of data?

Wouldn\'t you then be comparing apples to oranges with newly adjusted numbers comparing to legacy numbers?

Wouldn\'t he then have to go back and spend countless man hours retesting all of his current thinking about patterns, etc?

Just curious how you would go about implementing changes into number calculations? Is it a regular occurence for you to continually tweak your numbers? I understand that you would always want to produce the most accurate number, but I\'m just wondering if it\'s feasible?

[Jim]

Treadhead,

It really isn\'t my place to give out the Ragozin numbers for the KY Derby. I gave my analysis, which is just like everyone else\'s, an opinion. I probably have it completely wrong or maybe I don\'t - who knows?

I\'m sure Jerry would love to discuss the number differences though. Of course he\'s very busy between posting here, on the Ragozin board, and doing making numbers for all the tracks, lol.

Life is great!!

[Jim]

Excitable Boy,

This is my last response to you. You offer nothing of any value here and are just another as_ kisser. If you feel like joining in the Derby discussion perhaps I\'ll reconsider. Until then, you are talking to your computer screen.

[kev]

Jim you lost me, your a rag\'s user, right???

[Jim]

kevin - yes, I am, have been for about 10 years.

[rail]

You know what? I don\'t blame you for not talking to me. After all, here I am acting just like a raggie; I am embarrassed. I never was and never will be though. I must have got caught up in the heat of your senseless rantings. My apologies to any I offended.

[TGJB]

Now, who else does that... makes a list, but it\'s not really a pick... if it wins I\'ve got it, if it doesn\'t I\'ve got it...

[TGJB]

There is a better chance that Ragozin will parachute into the infield on Derby day than be convinced to change by any kind of examples or logic. But if he did, it would be worth it for the satisfaction and the P.R. and yes, it would be a mess.

[Jim]

Geez Jerry, are you that dense?

I could say that you do it every week with your Race of the Week. Horses you continually post as weak, or throwouts, somehow become the TG horse because of one small comment. I think it\'s very funny.

I started this thread to hear everyone\'s opinion on the Derby. This is not a contest between the Sheets and your wannabe knock-off product.

I will not decide how to play the race until I see the odds before post. If you don\'t use the odds as a guide to your play, you are an even bigger loser than I thought.

[TGJB]

In case you really don\'t know(which in your case is possible), we make a point in the intro of ROTW of saying that it\'s not a selection, and unlike Friedman, we don\'t take bows unless we actually hit an explicit play- \'95 Derby 3 horse box, tri pays $2000, \'98 Derby 4 horse box, tri pays $1000, 2000 BC turf 4 horse box, tri pays $4000, etc. The win plays we recommend have an odds guideline- win bet @ 5-1 or higher, etc.
Please keep posting- you are serving an invaluble function. When I tell people how Raggies behave and what they say I am often accused of making it up or overreacting. When we started this website 5 years ago I said one of the aims was to bring guys like you out from under the rocks and into the open. You are this year\'s poster boy.
Hey, what did you think of Young Guy\'s post? I\'ve just told you why we leave your posts up- why do you think your boys took his down?

[Jim]

Uhm Jerry??

One post you criticize me for only giving my opinion and not making a selection, saying \"who does this?\" The next post you say you do it in the ROTW. Too funny. You are a walking contradiction.

Keep at it Jerry. You are paranoid and don\'t know how to deal with someone like me. I never criticize your \"product\" at the track and I know the facts - not your version of them. So what rock am I hiding under Jerry? None unless you start calling me a liar again. If you do, be prepared to back it up this time.

Instead of acting like a jackas_, why don\'t you let it go and try to join in a normal conversation for once. Why must everything in your life come back to Ragozin? You are miserable and that is the root of it. The first step to healing is to admit your problem.

[Jim]

Excitable Boy,

It seems like you calmed down and admitted you were wrong, though your raggie comment makes your sincerity questionable. Your apology was warranted and nonetheless, is accepted.

Feel free to join in the Derby discussion - we would love to hear your opinion.