The Kaintuckee Derby

[Jim]

Thought I\'d try to spark a discussion again. Handicapping the Derby has always been a source of fascination with me. I have had some big scores the past 10 years (Monarchos, Thunder Gulch, Go for Gin, etc.) - some because of the Sheets, others because I just liked the horse. Anyway, here are my top 5 horses. I think I would have liked Repent, but alas, it was not meant to be (just like AP Indy).

#1 Harlan\'s Holiday - hate to take the favorite, but I really like his line - he\'s poised for a forward move and has a great bottom under him in my opinion

#2 Buddha - the only one of the Wood superstars that I don\'t think will bounce - only backed up slightly off his previous race

#3 Request for Parole - don\'t know how much forward he can go since he has equaled his two year old top twice this year without moving forward, but I have to think he has a big chance and will be a big, big price

#4 Blue Burner - probably will bounce off that Wood effort, but seems to be a consistent sort and is the kind that may put in a big run to pick up the pieces at the end

#5 Essence of Dubai - here\'s where the Derby feeling comes in. By rights, Johannesburg should be in the top 5 due to his BC number, but it\'s pretty tough to play him off that prep this year - meanwhile EoD looks like he\'ll have to run a lifetime top to win, but already having a mile and a quarter win, I\'ll give him the benefit of the doubt

I may not be taking the high road on this board, but I\'m certainly taking the higher road. Let me hear your opinions this time.

[derby1592]

Jim,

Until I see all the latest figures and who actually enters the race and the post draw, I cannot form a strong opinion on the Derby. However, I do have a few questions regarding your comments.

If you like RFP, why not Perfect Drift?

If you like Blue Burner, why not Saarland?

In both cases, you have similar horses, with similar lines coming out of the same race and in each case the horse on your list was passed in the stretch by the horse I mentioned (and I guess Sarland might have even been holding his breath...). Additionally, the horses that that I mentioned also have better \"Derby Breeding\" IMHO.

I was thinking it might be the odds but since you have Buddah and Harlan\'s Holiday on your list, I figure there must be other reasons.

I agree that Essence of Dubai is interesting but would like to know how much he has improved in his 3yo races.

I am inclined to play against both Buddah and Harlan\'s Holiday given the likely odds and the fact that both probably peaked
in Florida although I would not be shocked to see either run well in the Derby. I know that was the case with Monarchos and Invisible Ink last year but I still don\'t like that line going into the Derby. Of course, that opinion cost me some money last year...

Chris

[tread]

Jim, are you some kind of oracle?  How can you say you like the overall look of a horse\'s line when you don\'t have the figures from the last race?  Or do you know something we dont?  How can you state matter-of-factly that HH is poised for a forward move and Buddah only backed up \"slightly\".  That is impossible without the figures.

Chris and I are on the same page, but I do want to point out the IInk looked much more attractive last year beacuase his big race (1) was run in early Feb and he then bounced and showed a recovery race before the derby hinting he was cycling back.  I thought Monarchos was ripe for an 0-2-x coming into the derby, but now looking back it was actually a 3.5 point bounce and I have since ammended my views to include horses running style and think that closers are less suseptable to 0-2-x patterns.

For those who keep comparing Monarchos to Buddah, Monarchos came into the derby running 15-15-7-3-0-3 and Buddah looks like 19-5-0-?.  I\'m guessing the last race is about a 2-3, but who knows.  While Monarchos is not exactly what you want to see in the line of an even progression without quick jumps, it still is a more favorable pattern than Buddah.  Throw in the fact that Buddah is more a front-running type, and I think you are going to see a classic 0-2-X from him in the derby.

Harlan I still give a shot in the exotics, but that was one tough spring he put together.  The 0 in the Fla Derby may have been a knockout punch.

But hey, I love it when people talk about the favorites, it makes the odds better for the other horses.  And I expect Buddah will take a lot of money from the once a year horse player who shows up for the derby because \"he has a cool name\".  Battaglia says 15-1 for Perfect Drift in his preliminary line, I\'ll be ecstatic to get that, given I think he has a 15-20% chance of winning.

[kev]

Mike B says HH at 5-1 and BUDDAH at 6-1 i see Buddah going lower than that around 9-2, why?? Pat Day at CD on a gray. Talking about on track odds. Yes we do have to wait till the final numbers are up.

[Jim]

derby,

First, thanks for the response.

I like RFP better than Perfect Drift because I see PD bouncing. I could be wrong about that. If you go with the opinion that his race on a wet track two back is a throwout, then I think you have a better argument. I think RFP has an opportunity to move forward and see no reason to bounce him - couple that with what I think will be tremendous value and that is why I\'ll use him.

Saarland is not a bad horse - I think the Wood was a great field and I loved his dam BTW. I just see him making a bigger backward move. He had a short race, then a big move forward for a lifetime top last out. I see him regressing. Blue Burner will most likely bounce too, but I think has a better foundation under him and didn\'t make the big jump that Saarland did.

[Jim]

Treadhead, an oracle? Hardly. I have seen the numbers for the last preps. They are circulating around the track.

You may be right about the 0-2-X on Buddha, but the Sheets don\'t support it in the classic sense.

I actually think HH comes closer to fitting the 0-2-X profile. But that conflicts with another profile I like - 3yo\'s that equal or break through their two top year-old number, will make another forward move in the next two races. He didn\'t make it last time, so I expect him to move forward this time, which should put him right there.

All in my opinion, of course.

[tread]

Are you speaking of THE SHEETS numbers or TG numbers that you already have?

[TGJB]

When we publish them, take a look at that wet track figure for PD and RFP on TG. It was then that I bet RFP at 60-1 and PD at prices between 90 and 100-1. The other bets I have are EOD at 48-1, and pool 2 mutual field(right now about 11 KD starters including Buddha, MDO, Private Emblem, War Emblem, Castle G)at 7-1.
And as you will see, the Wood horses look a whole lot different if you don\'t give the race a crazy figure.

[TGJB]

Make it clear when you do this that you are talking about Ragozin numbers- I encourage all pre-race comparisons because a lot of Raggies come to this site, and it gives them a good chance to compare in advance. When I get the time I will discuss the mistake Ragozin made that resulted in the hugely inflated Wood figure(for the second time in 3 years). I took HH at 40-1 when he got back to his 2yo top in his first start this year, but I suspect he\'s done too much too soon. He might have one more left.
Speaking of high roads, what do you think would have happened if I put a similar post up on the Rag board?

[derby1592]

since none of us know the TG figures..

Chris

[kev]

I like the fact that Jerry knows already the mistake that the Rags made in the wood. I guess that goes from years of working with them and having people from the Rags come work for you. Have you ever had any of your boys quit and go to work for them??

[derby1592]

Below is a list of the most recent 20 Derby winners. With only a few exceptions, these horses, not surprisingly, all put in strong stretch runs in their final Derby preps. Only a couple of them were passed by another horse in the stretch and in those cases, unusual pace scenarios or track conditions were an important factor. For example, Silver Charm was nosed out in a thrilling stretch run but only after he uncharacteristically got caught up in a speed duel (he typically stalked the early pace) but, despite going 45 flat and 1:09 flat early, he tenaciously dug in during the final 16th after being headed in mid stretch and still won over many new backers even in defeat. In many cases, the eventual Derby winner did not win its final Derby prep but instead chased home one or more front runners through the stretch but then managed to turn the tables on those same horses given the added distance and pace pressure in the Derby. A look at the second place finishers in the Derby reveals a very similar pattern.

I would think twice before betting on a horse that did not put in a strong stretch run in its final Derby prep, particularly, if it was passed by other horses in the stretch. This is one reason I would be reluctant to play RFP or Blue Burner even at long odds. Once again, this is just one of many factors I consider when handicapping the Derby.

One final note: notice that all of these horses (except for Spend A Buck), also not surprisingly, ran their final Derby preps in either the Wood, SA Derby, Blue Grass, Aks Derby, or Lexington. Of course, training methods, the spacing of traditional Derby preps / the addition of several new preps, and shipping options have changed a lot in recent years but this last factor is also probably still worth taking into consideration.

Chris


*****
Most Recent 20 Derby Winners:

Monarchos (chased Congaree in Wood)
Fusaichi Pegasus (drew off in Wood)
Charismatic (drew off in Lex)
Real Quiet (chased Indian Charlie in SA Derby)
Silver Charm (sizzled early, dug-in late, nosed out in SA Derby)
Grindstone (closed furiously but fell a nose short in Aks Derby)
Thunder Gulch (pressed dawdling pace in BG and failed to cut into lead)
Go for Gin (chased Irgun in Wood)
Sea Hero (pressed dawdling pace in BG and failed to cut into lead)
Lil E. Tee (chased Pine Bluff in the Aks Dby)
Strike The Gold (drew off in BG)
Unbridled (chased Summer Squall in BG)
Sunday Silence (drew off in SA Derby)
Winning Colors (drew off in SA Derby)
Alysheba (closed to win but was DQ’d in BG)
Ferdinand (chased in SA Derby )
Spend A Buck (ran away and hid in Garden State Derby)
Swale (Chased He Is A Great Deal in the slop in Lex)
Sunny\'s Halo (ran away and hid in Aks Derby)
Gato Del Sol (chased Linkage in BG)

[TGJB]

That\'s not how I know. Friedman posted on their site about the Wood figures, and it was clear immediately what they did(fail to split the 1 and 2 turn races)- it was the only way you could come up with that figure. Our figure, by the way, is rock solid- of the 6 who finished, 3 exactly paired their last race, one went back 3/4 of a point, and two bounced off tops they figured to bounce from(including Buddha).
Two guys who made figures for Ragozin now make figures for us. One guy and gal who did clerical work for us went on to do the same for Ragozin.

[Tim B.]

I have also looked at the Rags for the proposed Derby horses and have to question your selection of Harlan\'s Holiday, Jim.  Whether or not the TG sheets make him out to be a strong or simply mild contender, it seems odd that in a race that figures to have 18-20 entrants you could possibly think that he is the best play.  You made him your top selection, although in your posting earlier today you mention that he\'s at least a slight possibility for fitting an 0-2-x pattern.

I actually agree with you that he should move forward off his last race, but the question REALLY is (if you like him) whether or not his forward move will make him good enough to win?  There are several horses that have run faster recently than Harlan\'s Holiday has EVER run, and although many of those are likely to bounce there always seems to be 1 or 2 that doesn\'t (like Charasmatic, who figured to go way backwards after his Lexington win yet continued to move forward).

The only real positives I see with your selection of Harlan\'s Holiday are that he is definitely consistent (most of his races make him at least an exotics contender) and that with the large field expected, he figures to be around 4-1 as the favorite which isn\'t a horrible price if you REALLY like him.  He can win

Like another poster mentioned, it\'s a bit early to make a strong selection as post positions and track condition will play a role.  Request For Parole probably would be a pitch if it\'s a wet track (according to Rags), whereas he could be keyed if it\'s dry.  What if Harlan\'s Holiday draws post 19?  Is he still as strong?

I agree completely with you that it\'s hard to pick a horse in the Derby that you expect to move backwards off his last race.  My biggest question is which of the horses comig off their new tops will continue to progress?  They\'re not ALL gonna bounce, are they?

[kev]

Someone already said this, you might not see the big monster super or tri. it will still be paying well. I think the wps and ex\'s are the bets to play in the derby. Just think about it, say the two fav\'s are 9-2 and 5-1 the payoff would be maybe 40.00 on up. The way i\'m going to play it is.... 150W about 140 in ex\'s i will put more on the horses i like in the ex\'s even the toss outs i will have atless a 1.00 or two on them. and 100.00 to show. Cause keying my horse in the 3rd spot with 19 other will put me over what i want to play. Pules if my horse comes in 1st or 2nd, the show will off-set one or the other.